The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World Reviews

• Pulls No Punches!

  
  By A22RY8N8CNDF3A on 2007-09-17
  Greenspan calls "The Age of Turbulence" a "psychoanalysis of himself." It begins (first half) with his early life, describing the events that provided his learning experiences (including his desire to become a baseball player, then a jazz musician), and then goes to his life of implementing those lessons.
  
  Undoubtedly the most interesting material included Greenspan's evaluations of the Presidents he had worked with. His observations were not the platitudes one might have expected. "Nixon was very smart, paranoid," and was an equal-opportunity disparager of all ethnic groups. Ford was the most normal, and sometimes looked past politics to focus on the ethics of an issue. Reagan's ability to spout seemingless endless one-liners and stories was an "odd form of intelligence," according to Greenspan. Greenspan felt his relationship with Bush I was a disaster, with the President eventually blaming Greenspan for his losing the election to Clinton. Clinton, however, was most like a soul-mate to Greenspan - very intelligent, and one constantly working to soak up knowledge and understanding. Greenspan also labeled Clinton's '93 economic plan that focused on reducing the deficit as an "act of political courage." Finally, Greenspan's assessment of Bush II was that he was incurious about the effects of his own economic policy, and that Greenspan's biggest frustration with Bush II was his failure to veto any spending bills.
  
  Greenspan was told that Bush thought he could better control Speaker Hastert and Whip Delay by signing the spending bills; they, however, were never reticent to spend more money to help assure more Republican congressmen. Greenspan also added that he disagreed with Bush II's supply-side economic thinking, and that his endorsement of "A" tax cut during 2001 was just that - not an endorsement of Bush's plan. Another problem was that the plan had no adjustment mechanism in the event assumptions did not pan out and the deficit began to rear up again.
  
  On the other hand, Greenspan does not tell the whole story. According to Paul Krugman (New York Times, 9/17/07), he could have clarified himself a few weeks later when he appeared before a Senate committee on the same topic and evaded questions on whether the proposed tax cuts were too large. Two years later when more cuts were proposed, Greenspan did not object, and in 2004 he expressed support for making the Bush cuts permanent - accompanied by cuts in Social Security beneifts that he assured Congress in 2001 would not be threatened by the cuts.
  
  The most incendiary comment in the book was clearly Greenspan's conclusion that the Iraq War II was all about oil. However, Greenspan is now "clarifying" his statement to Greenspan having told the White House that removing Saddam was "essential" to secure world oil supplies, and now stating (Washington Post interview, 9/17/07) that securing global oil supplies was "not the administration's motive."
  
  Greenspan was initially elated when Bush II won, and brought in his old friends Cheney and Rumsfeld. However, he noted that "they changed," and that he did not agree with Cheney's "deficit's don't matter." There also seemed to be little value placed on rigorous economic policy debate or weighing long-term policy consequences - policy-making was firmly in the hands of White House staff (Rove, et al). A result was that Bush II's first two Treasury Secretaries (O-Neill, Snow) were essentially powerless. Summarizing, Greenspan saw the Republicans in '04 as having swapped principle for power, ending up with neither, and deserving to lose in '06. The "good news" was that they did not try to interfere with monetary policy.
  
  Greenspan has come under increasing criticism himself for the current housing collapse and preceding bubble. His defense, in "The Age of Turbulence," was that the risk of broadening home ownership was worth the risk, that he didn't realize shady practices had grown so prevalent, and had tried raising mortgage rates in '04 and '05 by hiking rates on ten-year Federal notes (no impact).
  
  Finally, looking to the future, Greenspan sees a need to raise taxes on energy to encourage conservation, and a risk of increased inflation - already prices are rising in China. As for ethanol, even if all U.S. corn was converted to ethanol, it would only provide less than 20% of our current oil usage.
  
  An interesting and timely book!
  
  

• Intelligent and Fascinating

  
  By A136YD08SCJ2LV on 2007-09-17
  Borrowing from a famous investment banking commercial, "when Alan Greenspan talks, people listen". And that's how this book should be approached. This one man, not a president, has had more to do with the everyday life of Americans aged 65 and under than anyone else. Crisis after crisis has been thrown at us and he has deftly defended our economy. It would have been interesting to see how he would have handled the Volker era of high interest rates in the late 70s/early 80s.
  
  So let's get to the most controversial area of the book, did he leave interest rates too low too long after 9/11, and should he have attacked subprime lenders? Hindsight builds confidence in critics but our economy did not falter and he builds a compelling case that following the info he had, keeping us from a recession was the most important point. As to housing bubble caused by low interest rates and poor lending practices, it is a compelling case that worries of deflation and how Japan lost control of this in the 80's/90's was significant to the Fed's policy. Should subprime lending have been stopped or slowed? Without a question. But is it the job of the Fed? Greenspan will continue to catch criticism but it is not part of the role of the Fed IMO. The system worked. I-Bankers stretched lending more and more to generate bonds which hedge funds then bought the riskiest tranches. That is where the losses are. That plus the marginal borrowers who should not have been in the loans.
  
  What this book does a great job of is giving you insight into the workings of the finance of our govt. for the past 40 years. Reading in the 60s with no computers how the field of economics evolved from hand calculating massive data is hard to believe in today's computer world. The chronological review of his involvement is nothing short of fascinating. Generally, he confirms what has been reported of all the Presidents: Nixon - extremely intelligent with a dark side, Ford - a consensus builder, the lost art in today's politics, Reagan - not much interaction but a guy that knew what he wanted to accomplish and did it with a story, Bush I - the relationship soured based on interest rates but great respect for the man. And that leaves us with last two, Clinton and Bush II. There is no reason for him to like Clinton, different parties, different influences, etc. But Clinton won over Greenspan by focusing on the difficult political agenda of lowering the deficit. This is difficult as it does not have immediate impact to the constituents. Bush II was from the same party and Greenspan agreed to Bush's initial tax cuts. How could their relationship sour? Well, budget deficits returned and Bush maintained total economic interest in cutting taxes whether it was the right thing to do or not. I voted for Bush twice but Greenspan's narrative is subtly scathing.
  
  From this fascinating financial history covering the first 248 pages the book transcends to an open discussion of economic theory and case studies of virtually all other major countries and his feelings of their economic issues. This part of the book is also exceptional but does read slower. It's two different books. If this is not your cup of tea, then stop at page 248.
  
  In closing, I would suggest readers leave their political leanings out of the book and explore the man behind the critical decisions of the last 25 or so years and how it impacted your life. That is the critical issue and importance of the book. Overall, this is one of the most significant books I have read in my life, a must read for Americans enjoying our economy for the last 20 years or those wanting to learn about how our economy and government work. Should be required reading in college economics.
  
  SIDEBAR: Two years ago I attended a Washington Redskins game in a box of a minority owner. Sitting next to me but on the other side of glass was Greenspan in Daniel Snyder's box. There was no person I would have rather met just to deliver the message of thanks for leading our economy brilliantly in a fascinating time!
  
  
  
  
  

• A Truly Fascinating Look into Greenspan, Economics, and US Policy

  
  By A2VODABWSVHV8E on 2007-09-17
  Greenspan's "The Age of Turbulence" is a tour de force, an incredibly engaging, insightful, and detailed look, not only at the life and history of the most famous economist of the U.S., but of the key economic events that have shaken, molded, and served as the crucible for the global economy of the 21st century. Make no mistake about it: this is a book that will easily become a de facto standard of the genre, and will remain so for years to come.
  
  From the opening pages of Greenspan's introduction we immediately become aware that this book is exceptionally and surprisingly well written, and that Greenspan has somehow managed to coalesce the mountains of knowledge and experiences he has accumulated over some six decades of public life into an imminently accessible and, yes, understandable, text. The book opens up with Greenspan's flight back from Switzerland on 9/11, and the interruption of that flight with the news of what had happened in New York City that day. Greenspan peels back the history and lets us in on his many thoughts as his flight made an emergency return to Zurich, and then, subsequently, during his interactions in the weeks that followed with persons at all levels of the government and the banking system. As he lays out his story, we are introduced to numerous asides which explain to us many aspects of the economic system with which we may not yet fully understand or comprehend, and Greenspan deftly intertwines such didactic content in with these life events in a manner that makes us learn as we go, all the while not even realizing we are being educated as we proceed.
  
  The book proper continues with this approach of mixing personal history with mini-lessons of economics, first starting with his childhood in New York, then moving to his teen and adolescent years, his PhD work, and his eventual move into government service. We read about his childhood fascination with numbers, his studies at Julliard in music, his love of baseball, his skill in conquering huge masses of data wherever he found them, and see in his upbringing the traits that would serve him (and us) so well in his eventual role as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank. The book is essentially broken into two parts: the first, in which Greenspan draws us through his own learning path through the years so that we can understand how he came to master individual economic events and systems; and the second, the application of these lessons learned toward attempting to understand what he calls today's new global economy. The sweep of the story is grand, and leaves little left unturned. We are allowed to peer into Greenspan's insights and thinking concerning Black Monday, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Rise of China, the role of Russia in world economics, the dot com bubble and burst, and, of course, the effect of globalization as it was ensconced immediately after World War II and how it appears today. In it, Greenspan not only makes his formidable knowledge of all these subjects known, but he also tells us his beliefs about many of them, and even tries to tell us how he thinks things may look a quarter of a century from now.
  
  Perhaps most interesting in this volume beyond its educational aspects is reading about Greenspan's inner feelings about the various personages and events with which he interacted over the years. His comments about meeting Ayn Raynd, and the impact her thinking played upon his own, are both humorous and honest. His thoughts about Nixon, which he explicates - both good and bad - yield more insight that can be used whenever we study that portion of history. His comments on Ford, Reagan, and Clinton are also quite interesting, and it is a study in personality to see how he contrasts and compares these people as he winds out his story. Its a real "extra" for readers of the Greenspan's story.
  
  A book that is as engaging as it is insightful, "The Age of Turbulence" is truly a "must-read" for nearly anyone interested in financial markets, capitalism, global economics, and the role of U.S. foreign (and domestic) policy. Buy it to learn and to become better educated, but read it to enjoy and savor. I'll bet you'll be as surprised as I at just how truly fascinating the work turns out to be.
  
  
  

• Iraq is largely about oil

  
  By A1OQNVH2R1NIX0 on 2007-09-17
  "They deserved to lose," says author Greenspan of the Republican Congress in 2006. "They swapped principle for power" in passing excessive spending bills which President Bush then failed to veto. Some may suggest that the Federal Reserve chairman was not very agressive with his criticism at the time. Although the book deals primarily with Greenspan's 18 years as economic advisor or Fed Chairman to six Presidents, there is an interesting brief comment about the cause of the Iraq War.
  "I am saddened," he said "that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil."
  There is good reason for that statement which is likely to cause as much discussion as anything in the book. Iraq's oil, although briefly dealt with, is IMO the most important in the book.
  Iraq is one big sedimentary oil and natural gas bearing basin which is only about 25 percent explored. There are conflicting estimates of Iraq's ultimate potential. But Iraq's proven reserves of 115 billion barrels (EIA est.) could potentially double or even triple with modern seismology exploration, making it a rival to Saudi Arabia as the world's top producer of a dwindling resource. To develop Iraq's fields will require massive investment by major oil company partners, and a significant long term military force to protect those facilities.
  All of this suggests that we will be there awhile. And that the war in Iraq is not about mythical WMDs, elusive Middle East democracy, or the war on terror. It's "largely" about oil, a couple of hundred billion barrels of it. REW(professional member Geological Society of America)
  
  

• The Age of Greenspan the Destroyer

  
  By A2767M7G1EOTYX on 2007-11-24
  This book is Greenspan's attempt to see that his name is not forever associated with the economic turmoil that is upon us--hence we are living in an "age of turbulence"--not the "age of Greenspan". It will take a lot more than a book to accomplish that feat.
  
  Many economists say the Fed, by cutting short-term interest rates to 1% in mid-2003 and keeping them there for a year, helped foster a housing bubble that is now bursting. In his book, which was largely written before much of the recent turmoil in credit markets, Mr. Greenspan defends the policy. "We wanted to shut down the possibility of corrosive deflation," he writes. "We were willing to chance that by cutting rates we might foster a bubble, an inflationary boom of some sort, which we would subsequently have to address...it was a decision done right."
  
  Now Greenspan says that the deepening slump in the U.S. housing market isn't a result of his policies.
  
  "Markets are becoming aware of the fact that the decline in house prices is not stopping," Greenspan says now. "I have no particular regrets. The housing bubble is not a reflection of what we did, as it is a global phenomenon."
  
  But, according to the NY Times on Dec. 17th [2007]: "Edward M. Gramlich, a Federal Reserve governor who died in September, warned nearly seven years ago that a fast-growing new breed of lenders was luring many people into risky mortgages they could not afford."
  
  "But when Mr. Gramlich privately urged Fed examiners to investigate mortgage lenders affiliated with national banks, he was rebuffed by Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman."
  
  After the 2001 recession, the Fed cut its benchmark rate to a four-decade low of 1 percent. That move, along with a scandalous hands-off approach to regulation, has brought Greenspan under fire as the bursting of the housing bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis threaten to sink the economy, as well as the nest eggs of millions of hardworking Americans--many of whom will never know that the sainted Alan Greenspan destroyed their economic futures.
  
  Also, as has been pointed out by the Wall St. Journal, no one should forget that the Fed under Greenspan made monetary mistakes that helped to make it possible for 10% of Citigroup to be owned by Arabian sheikdoms. Greenspan's easy money policy created a subsidy for debt that led to the housing bubble and Citi's mistakes in the mortgage and SIV markets. Greenspan's printing presses enabled a global commodity boom that has enriched the oil producers. This huge windfall has to go somewhere, and so it is gobbling up U.S. assets. Greenspan disclaims any and all responsibility for this fiasco.
  
  This book will not change the historical view of Greenspan. His name will become synonymous with the (possible) collapse of the American economy. But he didn't do anything wrong--just read this book and he will tell you that.
  
  
  
  
• You Coulda Said Something Sooner -- Don't Buy This Book
  By A10I5EWX6AFU2K on 2007-09-22
  You got a lot of nerve, Dr. Greenspan. Your grave disappointment with the Republican Congress during President George W Bush's regime is the runaway fiscal spending; and you wait until now to tell us? You say, except for it being politically inconvenient to admit that the Iraq War is all about the oil, everyone knows it. Why not say it early on? And when the Bush administration confronts you about that statement, you are back-pedaling so as not to include G.W.Bush. What poppycock! I nearly fell off the chair when you explain that a budget surplus, such as under the Clinton years, is undesirable because it would force the federal government into private investment. Whaaaa..? Perhaps you'd like to rethink that statement in the face of falling-down bridges and swamped levees. In these days of neglected public systems, the American people would be the beneficiaries of a budget surplus that could fund (don't we wish it?)the construction projects to save our crumbling infrastructure from sea to shining sea. Dr. Greenspan, whose side are you on? I'm a little disgusted with major players sidling into the limelight (Colin Powell, George Tenet, Greenspan) to tell the public they knew it all along, but went along. Well, don't expect the rest of us to enrichen your pockets with more book sales. Visit your public library if you must read this book.
  
  
• Don't Waste Your Time. Greenspan Has Destroyed America and Should be Condemned Not Celebrated
  By A1FX8Z0JG7368P on 2007-10-01
  I'm amazed how so many are continuously fooled by the propaganda of the media and publishers, who look to any figure, whether it be Brittney Spears or Alan Greenspan...anyone they can create some fantasy in order to make a buck.
  
  The media has proclaimed Greenspan as some maestro and credited him as the single largest force behind "America's 15-year stretch of economic boom." Wake up people!! The fact is that anyone can create asset bubbles as Greenspan has. As well, anyone can run away and hide from the blame as he has. But it takes a complete coward to run away from the largest and what will unravel as the most devastating real estate bubble in American history.
  
  Here are the facts: Greenspan caused 3 asset bubbles: Internet, commodities and real estate. And he did so by pumping money into the banking system--worthless money that's backed by nothing. And the world sees this. That is why the dollar continues to hit record lows.
  
  As a result of nearly 2 decades of his monetary policies, we are now witnessing the very early stages of the beginning of the end of America's economic dominance. Within twenty years, the dollar will no longer be the universal curren
  
  
• Great book but Greenspan is simply ignorant of the wisdom of AdamSmith
  By A1UI9T8WKJPZN5 on 2007-09-17
  This is an excellent book .Greenspan makes a number of very interesting anecdotal comments about many of the major decision makers he came into contact with and interacted with on the world stage.These comments are very valuable to anyone interested in financial history,monetary policy,and money and banking.
  Unfortunately,Greenspan's core policy beliefs are composed of two propositions- that(a), it is not possible to prevent bubbles from arising in the financial markets and (b), all that can be done,once the bubbles have been created, is to react by making more and more liquidity available to the very institutions who made the loans available to the house flippers and leveraged buyout speculators in the first place.This means that Greenspan's approach is to let the fire start and then put it out or manage it with great skill.This book demonstrates that Greenspan was a master financial crisis manager.Unfortunately,his views let the problems arise.Greenspan appears to be a believer in the Efficient Market Hypothesis and its conclusion that financial markets can't be interfered with because they allocate capital efficiently,even if the loans are being made to speculators,imprudent risk takers,and prodigals.Turbulence and excess volatility is theoretically impossible in a theory modeled on the claim that all markets can be represented by normal probability distributions.It is interesting that Greenspan uses a description of financial markets,turbulence,in the title of his book that only comes into play in the analysis of Benoit Mandelbrot and his wild risk of the Cauchy distribution, as opposed to the mild risk of the normal distribution and the efficient market hypothesis.I conclude that Greenspan is a great, reactive Fed chairman who succeeds in putting out the fire.On the other hand,he was a very poor proactive Fed chairman who let the fires break out in the first place.
  
  Unfortunately,Greenspan,although he liked to wear Adam Smith ties,appears to be completely ignorant of the proactive money and banking policies laid down by Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations[Modern Library(Cannan)Edition] in 1776 on pp.294-340,and especially on pp.339-340 ,concerning to whom banks are to extend credit availability and to make loans to.Smith lays down two conditions that must be followed or else all of the savings deposited in the banks that is loaned out will be wasted and destroyed.The first condition is that the banks make NO loans to projectors(Keynes's speculators and rentiers),imprudent risk takers,and prodigals.All loans must be made to the sober people ,who will use the funds for productive investment in businesses that will create actual goods and services and not for speculative bubble makers .The crashes that occur after the bubble breaks impose severe and costly spillover and externality effects on the rest of the country.The second condition is that the rate of interest must be fixed at a low level permanently in the long run.This rate should be a little bit higher than the equilibrium,market clearing rate charged to the most creditworthy (prime)customers.It is interesting that these two conditions are identical to the conclusions arrived at by J M Keynes in Part V of the General Theory in 1936 on pp.321-327,338-353,and 375-378 -maintain a low,fixed rate of interest permanently in the long run, combined with a policy of credit restriction imposed on speculators so that they will always represent the unsatisfied fringe of potential borrowers.
  Greenspan,like Volcker before him and Bernanke after him,have the full set of powers to require commercial banks to restrict credit to the categories of borrower whom Smith identified as borrowers who will waste and destroy the loans.They do not make use of these powers simply because,from a short run point of view,these loans are very profitable to the banks.Unfortunately,this means that society is constantly absorbing the long run spillover and externality( social) costs imposed on society when the aggregate savings of a country is wasted and destroyed.It is a great tragedy that Greenspan was either ignorant of, or decided to ignore, the ancient wisdom of Adam Smith.
  
  
• He had his chance
  By A2QPPU2N07FOP7 on 2007-10-05
  Mr. Greenspan is trying to settle some scores, but again he's so obfuscating that I don't find the book very useful. It makes me sick to hear him now reversing himself and contradicting stuff he has been saying for last 10 years -- mortgages, CDOs, subprime... He said that there is no future for CDOs because they can't be priced! Well, maybe Alan can't price them, and very few peopel can, but to say something like that is dumb.
  
  I wish he just shuts up now when he has nothing useful or meaningful to say. He had his chance and he blew it by being a lackey of the american corporate totalitarianism. We pay, of course.
  
  
• Blinded by his own arrogance
  By A26Z4ZOWSEA93S on 2007-09-23
  In his memoir, Alan Greenspan reveals a little bit about his background - he was the only child of divorced parents, tried a career as a jazz clarinetist, was rejected by the U.S. Army, and eventually followed in his father's footsteps and ended up on Wall Street.
  
  Greenspan had a long and successful tenure at the Fed, which included the stock market crash of 1987, the huge banking losses of the early 1990's, the Mexican peso collapse of 1994, the Asian contagion of 1998 and the failure of Long Term Capital Management.
  
  Greenspan has no remorse and claims he managed the Fed virtually without error. In fact he did make several mistakes:
  -After warning about irrational exuberance in 1996, Greenspan embraced the "productivity miracle" and "dotcom revolution" in 1999. Mid-summer of 2000 Greenspan believed his own nonsense, and right as the dotcom bubble started to burst, he started to worry about inflation risks.
  - In 2001 Greenspan went overboard the other direction embarking on a campaign that eventually slashed interest rates 18 times to 1%, while embracing the miracle of derivatives, and encouraging consumers to get into ARMs along the way.
  - He did not forsee the housing bubble. On May 21 2006, Greenspan said "Housing Prices Won't Fall Nationally".
  
  There's also the questionable timing of this tell-all book to coincide with the most anticipated Fed meeting in a decade.
  I suppose it's a desperate attempt to stay relevant and an attempt to steal the spotlight from Ben Bernanke, and therefore he must try his best to appear on 3 or 4 TV channels at the same time in this critical week.
  
  
• The biggest disaster in Federal Reserve history
  By A3AUKUPGHSZ0IY on 2007-10-18
  This guy is truly amazing. He created a stock market bubble, a debt bubble and finished it off with a housing bubble after he dropped rates to artificially low rates under the guise of deflation and encouraged the masses to take out an adjustable rate mortgage. He has been wrong at every single turning point in the economy and I have trouble recalling anything he has ever done right besides being at the right place at the right time. His only motive ever was to protect his legacy and he was too caught up in politics when the Federal Reserve is supposed to be independent. I believe history will increasingly be unkind to him and his much beloved reputation will go down in flames. If you are in the mood for a good laugh, however, this tome is for you.
  
  
• Why reward the architect of the destruction of the dollar?
  By A1ACUEVPCS388O on 2007-11-24
  Okay, first off, let me say I do not own the book, nor would I buy it.
  So why post here? Because I find it repugnant that this former 'maestro'
  of the Fed should be so handsomely rewarded by book sales for actions that, while he led the Fed, will for all intents and purposes sink the US.
  
  Even today, the 'Maelstorm' accepts no responsibility for his actions:
  
  November 23 - Bloomberg (Robin Wigglesworth and Craig Stirling): "Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he has `no particular regrets' about his time at the central bank, adding that the deepening U.S. housing-market slump isn't a result of his policies. `Markets are becoming aware of the fact that the decline in house prices is not stopping,' Greenspan said... `I have no particular regrets. The housing bubble is not a reflection of what we did, as it is a global phenomenon.'"
  
  November 18 - Bloomberg (Anthony Massucci): "Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the dollar's decline hasn't affected the global economy and is a `market phenomenon.' `So long as the dollar weakness does not create inflation, which is a major concern around the globe for everyone who watches the exchange rate, then I think it's a market phenomenon, which aside from those who travel the world, has no real fundamental economic consequences'..."
  
  It is obvious to this reviewer that the Maelstorm must spend all his days
  reading his own press clippings, because there is no way he can avoid the
  'credit' for this mess. The Greenspan 'put' as it came to be known on
  Wall Street was a euphemism for the fact that no matter what the bad news
  'Easy Al' would bail out Wall Street. And he did, time and time again.
  When it was all through, he created so much money out of thin air, that
  he singlehandedly ensured the destruction of the dollar in the future.
  
  For those who don't pay attention, the dollar has lost some 40% of it's
  purchasing power against all major currencies in the world not pegged to
  it in just the last few years. For foreign investors buying our bonds,
  just this year alone the investment in a 5% treasury has COST the investor
  a LOSS of -5%!!! Why? because to theoretically save the US in 2002/03
  the Fed dropped rates so low for so long, they created the biggest money
  bubble in history. This bubble not only infected real estate in this
  country, but commodity prices around the world. You pay for the the
  'Maelstorm's actions every time you fill your tank, or go to a grocery
  store.
  
  Now, we hear weekly about the regrets of foreign countries in the Middle
  East and the Far East about holding so many dollrs. Heck, the value of
  those holdings went down 10% this year against the rest of the world,
  while we exported our inflation to their countries and heated up their
  economies. None of this can be good.
  
  Recently the head of Merrill Lynch was forced out, and got a ridiculous
  severance pay package of $130 Million dollars for screwing up the company.
  Makes about as much sense as buying this book from Mr Greenspan, spending
  your hard earned dollars to reward the guy most responsible for their
  depreciation.
  
  Spend your money elsewhere at Amazon. Try some books to help you see what
  a disservice this madman did to the US dollar. Try Dollar Crisis by
  Richard Duncan, or Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers, or a host of other
  books that try to save you from a future wrought with dollar peril.
  
  Greenspan -- pfft!
  
  
• Mr. "Bubble" Greenspan
  By A37ZJNZSYHNXWP on 2007-09-18
  Mr. Greenspan blames the Bush administration for a few things. Who is to blame for the 2000 internet bubble and under whose watch at the Fed did we get the current housing mortgage bubble? Will Greenspan write a book on that?
  
  
• Must read for the wanna-be economist
  By A1POOA7XGNAH4J on 2007-09-26
  I am half way through the book and I have to admit I have found excellent succinct answers to a lot of general questions I've had throughout my life - how can you forecast an economy? Why did exactly the Soviet Union collapse? What are the presidents like in person? How is that supposedly big-government democrats end up with budget surpluses, but small-goverment republicans with huge budget deficits?
  Alan Greenspan is one the most important people to have lived the past 30-40 years, and has had a hand in every important political/economic decision either directly or through side participation. I find his penmanship outstanding and his personal views very insightful and refreshing. His writing is definitely not Fed speak and on the contrary very engaging. Now you do need to be at least an amateur economist to understand some of the concepts in there. But it is truly amazing that a guy who wanted to be a musician and learned to play sax with Stan Getz, actually ended up running the biggest economy in the world. I think this book would prove to be a fascinating read for everyone who reads the Wall Street Journal on a daily basis.
  
  
• The Central Banker's Story
  By A3H86VWLHHG96C on 2007-10-02
  This new book by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is part memoir, part analysis, and part policy recommendations. Considering the infamous convoluted language of his pronouncements as Chairman, this work is relatively free from a jargon, in fact it is very readable. Although the book gives many details of his personal life, he does not really reveal much about himself that is not already public record, nor does he admit to any mistakes that he may have made as the world's most powerful banker.
  
  What is revealing are his comments on the presidents under which he served. Greenspan declares himself a "lifelong libertarian Republican." (He was a friend of Ayn Rand in his younger days.) As such, he is a believer in small government, a low level of taxation, and balanced federal budgets. It should come as no surprise that he is very critical of Bush II and the borrow-and-spend Congressional Republicans. He excoriates them for abandoning all of the above princples, and many others as well. When Bush campaigned during the 2000 election, he bragged that he would not be reading any weighty books on policy, instead he would delegate authority. The consequences of putting party hacks in charge of policy are what we've witnessed for the last seven years. ("Heck of job, Brownie.") Greenspan did not find many intellectuals among the Republican presidents.
  
  The section on Clinton was surprising to many reviewers, but shouldn't have been. Greenspan describes Clinton "as far from the classic tax-and-spend liberal as you can get and still have a Democrat." And notwithstanding the Lewinsky affair, he commends Clinton for "a preference for dealing with the facts" and "a consistent, disciplined focus on long-term economic growth." It is a sign of a turblent age when a lifelong libertarian Republican finds more promise in a Clinton presidency than a Bush II presidency. Given the voting patterns of the last 25 years, Americans seemed to prefer the conservative principles that Greenspan extols, but sometimes a Democrat is better at delivering them than a Republican. Clinton was never the leftist liberal that right wingers accused him of being.
  
  The second part of the book dealing with economic policy will appeal to the wonks. Federal budget deficits make Greenspan uneasy since libetarians believe they can and should be balanced. Trade deficits, on the other hand, do not bother him because libertarians do not interfere with the so-called free flow of trade. The rapid expansion of globalization in the past two decades has caused huge trade deficits but it has also kept the interest rates and the rate of inflation very low creating economic growth. However, Greenspan warns that once the economies of China, India, and Russian have fully integrated into the world economy, prices and interest rates will start to rise - in fact it has started already. By 2030, he predicts that inflation could be as high as 4.5% and that T-bills will be trading at 8%.
  
  As for the stock market bubble of the 1990's and the housing bubble of 2000's, Greenspan makes no apologies or mea culpas. He felt that the broadened economic benefits of these two surges of easy money were worth the risk. If there is a mea culpa in this book its when he regrets endorsing the Bush tax cut of 2001 without advocating the associated reduction in spending. A tax cut without a reduction in spending is a recipe for budget deficits.
  
  On the whole this book is a good read, measured and thoughtful like the man himself. After 18 years and 36 interest rate deliberations, I always suspected that he had good judgement, but when I read that he got his future wife up to his apartment by promising an essay on monopolies, I knew he had all the right moves.
  
  
• Tell Me Something I Don't Know.
  By A3UPYGJKZ0XTU4 on 2007-12-05
  Reaction to Alan Greenspan's much-anticipated memoir will undoubtedly vary widely depending upon the audience. "The Age of Turbulence" is part autobiography of the former Federal Reserve Chairman's professional life and part exposition of his views of the global economy, united by Greenspan's ongoing efforts to understand this new economy that is "vastly more flexible, resilient, open, self-correcting, and fast-changing than it was even a quarter century earlier." The book is written with the curious layperson in mind. In contrast to Fedspeak, Greenspan's style is straightforward and as fluid as it can be considering that he toils in the world of facts and figures. As a primer on the global economy, it is too long but basically good providing you don't take it as gospel.
  
  Greenspan takes us through his Washington Heights childhood, his admiration for the ideas of Adam Smith and Ayn Rand, to his career in macroeconomic forecasting, then through 4 decades in public service, including nearly 19 years as Chairman of the Fed. If you're looking for the rationale behind the Fed lowering the fund rate 3 times in fall 1998, mid-tech stock bubble, or decreasing the rate to 1% in 2003 and leaving it there for a year, precipitating a housing and credit bubble, well....there's not much here. He justifies 1998 with some nebulous notion of a "small by real risk" of global malaise. He justifies 2003 as an urgent effort to avert deflation. That's funny, because if the CPI were calculated by the same method as when Greenspan raised rates to combat inflation in 1987, his first action as Chairman, the inflation rate would have been 4%. By "funny", I mean "disingenuous".
  
  In the second half of the book, Greenspan presents his conclusions about the state of the global economy and its future. He begins with a brief history of capitalism and goes on to discuss, chapter by chapter, the economic successes and challenges of recent decades in Japan, China, India, Russia, and Latin America. He argues for less consternation over the US trade deficit, against protectionism and most regulation, and analyzes the state of Social Security and energy supply and consumption. I found his view of Latin America's "economic populism", which lacks the conceptual framework of socialism, insightful. He is dismissive of Russia's accomplishments under Putin. And he should avoid the subjects of education and workforce skills, as he demonstrates ignorance there.
  
  Alan Greenspan is an articulate and convincing spokesman for market capitalism and globalization. He explains the transition from manufacturing to a service economy in the US in a way that anyone can understand. This is where "The Age of Turbulence" excels. But he is an apologist for free-spending neocons and Boris Yeltsin, of all people. Too much of his analysis is based on understated inflation rates, which he should well know, since he was instrumental in trying to change the way CPI is calculated. I always regarded Greenspan as a smart man, well-intentioned, but dangerously susceptible to political pressures. After reading what he has to say, I think less of him, even though I am generally in agreement with his economic worldview. Bright, educated, but politically naïve and wanting far too much to be liked, Greenspan is too ingratiating and his rationalizations too clumsy in print. After 500 pages of this, I feel it wasn't worth my time.
  
  
• Greenspan's Pontius Pilate moment...
  By A565PMDP4YNU4 on 2007-10-03
  This autobiography is one of the most shameless attempts to absolve one's sins by throwing other people under the train. In other words; you'll only hear half the story. There's juicy details about the last several presidents and their administrations in regards to fiscal and monetary policy and a lot of criticism is placed on pork barrel spending and government contractors. Now, even though Greenspan says he a libertarian (He wrote like two articles for Ayn Rand; who hated libertarians.) what's left out is his push for policies that certainly turned the once great nation of the U.S. into a corporatist state. It's interesting he mentioned Joseph Schumpeter as an inspiration to his work; Schumpeter was an economist who said that although capitalism is the greatest economic system of all, it eventually leads to corporatism and at that point socialism is democratically elected into power. The neoconservative objective perhaps?
  Regardless of ideology, this book will make you angry if you know the inside details of the Fed Reserve, but for the love God, READ THIS BOOK. The more you know the better.
  
  
• Beyond the Sound Bites
  By ADVLRJS633OTD on 2007-09-23
  Every major reviewer, minor reviewer and broadcast personality has taken one or two sentences from this book and made an entire production of it. Well, this book is far more than one sentence or one sound bite. Alan Greenspan has given us the wisdom and experience of a man with years of rich living and a tremendous base of knowledge. He has allowed us into his private world.
  
  Greenspan writes with a keen and biting wit. He writes with a deep interest and concern for this country and its people. I was impressed with the fact that everything he writes about have exact dates and many have the time of day that they happened. He even mentions how long some of his telephone and in-person conversations and meetings were. This includes some dates well before he was in public life --- many decades ago. One is made aware of the fact that he surely was not keeping a diary in his twenties. Yet all the dates are there.
  
  He is a detail-oriented person and this makes the book a very effective documentation of events.
  
  The book is a combination of autobiography, history, economics, politics and prognostication. Greenspan admits his mistakes. Unlike many who write such books, he makes no pretense about always having been right or always having had the answers.
  
  We see Greenspan as a kind man. We see him as a man interested in human affairs, a deep interest in economics and business. We see him as a man who is not a politician, though he has certain political views as they relate to economics and the human condition.
  
  He learned to relate to the human condition from his friend, Ayn Rand. She taught him how economics is more than number crunching. It is based on the reaction that people have to certain conditions and how those reactions, in turn, affects the economy.
  
  He gives credit to each person in his life who has added a richness and color to his life. He speaks ill of no one really. There are a few people he mentions in the context of something they did that he felt was in poor judgment. But he is never unkind.
  
  While I've always admired Greenspan, this book gave me a new respect for him as a person and, yes, an economist and fed chairman. It's easy to look back and say that his easing the interest rates started the housing debacle we are now in. But with all the information at his disposal, he did what he believed to be right for the economy given the current circumstances at that time. History will tell if it was a mistake.
  
  The Economist magazine this week did make this statement regards Greenspan, "Under Mr Greenspan, whose memoirs came out this week, the Fed won a name for being quick to cut rates when markets squealed but slow to raise them when the economy picked up. The housing boom--and today's mess--are the result."
  
  So one could argue, with some reason, that Greenspan may have made major mistakes in his handling of the economy on his watch.
  
  Two words in the book struck me. They struck me because the author used them more than any other words. Fear and sadness. I don't know if these are words Greenspan peppers his everyday speech with or if the subjects of this book lend themselves to these two emotions in his mind. But when two words are used so many times in some 500 pages, it is pause for consideration.
  
  I found Greenspan's book exciting. I found it colorful and and extremely well-written. I found it timely.
  
  This is perhaps one of the most important books that's been written in years. Everyone who cares about the western world, especially the United States, should read this book.
  
  Whether you are a Greenspan fan or foe, the book is important. The characters are important. The times and the events are important. And the thinking of the man who controlled the economy for so many years is just about the most important thinking we could have the privilege to study.
  
  I thank Mr. Greenspan for writing this book and for sharing his life and his work. The one thing I felt while reading the book was that I was reading an honest account by an honest man. That's uncommon in the world today and it brings much value to this book, no matter what opinions the reader may hold.
  
  
• Opaque Syntax; Nation's Loss
  By A23SB6VGGB9E8U on 2007-09-26
  I have spent the past week reading and pondering Alan Greenspan's memoirs, The Age of Turbulence. It is a troubling read.
  
  As a person who deeply believes that the more voices added to a debate: the better the resulting decision, it is difficult to excuse the former Federal Reserve Board Chairman's flip-flops.
  
  Granted during his terms as chairman, Greenspan was known for his opaque and unparsable language. He writes the War on Terror is all about oil, that he opposed the Bush 2001 tax cuts or that the pork spree of the first years of the 21st century was "wrong." I follow the Fed. I will admit. I never understood Greenspan's statements while Chairman. He was the master of the compound, complex. I never divined those conclusions from his public utterances.
  
  In his memoirs, these statements are delivered in strong and clear language. Of course, an $8.5 million advance allows for consultation with top-flight ghost writing and editing talent. Still, the picture that emerges is of a Fed Chairman who is either a weasel or the lowest of political hacks. I am not willing to accept either. I watched the Fed's moves during his 18-year term. They were bold. They were intuitive. I believe they were the result of the collaboration of brilliant minds grappling with complex and often random events.
  
  Why weren't the American people entitled to the same? If Greenspan believes what he has written in his memoirs, then we were severely short-charged by his public pronouncements as Chairman. If we, as taxpayers, elevate someone to the pinnacle of his profession, we are entitled to wisdom unshaded by political cross-currents.
  
  Greenspan's memoir says we are not. Unfortunately that forces me to re-evaluate 18 years of thinking.
  
  
• Surprisingly Enjoyable
  By A1SD4QV2IQ8KJB on 2007-09-30
  Who would have thought that the central banker known for his convoluted "Fedspeak" could've written such a lucid, fascinating, and witty 500-page turner! Totally worthwhile!
  
  
• His Autobiography, Memoirs, and Mostly Essays
  By A3MV1KKHX51FYT on 2007-09-25
  This book is very readable. It has the basics on his autobiography. Many paragraphs seem to be misleading or self-serving statements to enhance his prestige. How many can you find in this 505 page book? The fine print in the `Acknowledgments' name those who were part of the collective that wrote this book. [That `just-in-time' system seems designed to benefit air freight and oil consumption (p.6).] Alan Greenspan is wrong to say that President Nixon's gasoline rationing caused gas lines; it was the embargo of imported oil that caused shortages. Alan claims "deregulated financial markets" (p.8) was beneficial. Neutering the Glass-Steagall Act in the 1990s led to the High tech stock swindles that looted many American investors and led to the destruction of jobs and manufacturing. Was that a good thing? The unreliability of financial markets also led to the destruction of the pension system. Page 9 tells how Greenspan's approval of the $100 billion tax cut helped the economy. [Prosperity results when most people have money.] Alan admits his prediction of a second terrorist attack was one of his worst predictions [but doesn't explain the politics of this]. Does Alan really believe our economy depends on being able "to borrow and spend" (p.10)? Surely he jests? What does an economist produce? Soothsaying or special interest pleading?
  
  Alan claims "we are living in a new world", the age of turbulence (p.10). This book is his attempt to understand it (or explain it). The truth is that this new world is the result of political choices made by a ruling class; its not an accident like the weather. Alan claims protectionism "led to a spiraling down of trade" (p.12). No it was the lack of prosperity (money) that caused the Great Depression; the new tariffs were a reaction not a cause. The stock swindles of the 1920s also stole money from most people. Before Nixon's reign only a tiny amount of trade was international, America was more prosperous than in any other decade of the 20th century. Alan shows his sleight-of-hand in discussing China's exploding investments by avoiding telling how it happened. The "central planning" or control of capital that brought this about could not occur where most people had control of businesses and investments (local control equals democracy). Does page 13 say this caused falling interest rates? That means wealth has been greatly and perversely concentrated.
  
  Inflation is caused by fiat money (p.14). The Federal Reserve (a private bank that benefits its investors by taking funds from American citizens) is the main source of inflation since the abandonment of silver and gold standards. [The other cause of inflation is counterfeiting.] Adam Smith's "invisible hand" (p.16) required multitudes of owner-operated businesses not the oligopolies that exist today. Adam Smith was against monopolies like the Federal Reserve, a violation of the Constitution that says only the Government would produce money. Did Adam Smith's "model" fail in the 1930s? No, the growth of large corporations affected the economy; such near total control did not exist in the late 18th century. "Competitive free markets" (p.16) can't exist when large corporations and central bankers create policies to damage small businesses and the people.
  
  Alan shows a bent for philosophizing on the remarkable similarities of people (pp.16-17). Aristotle said "man is a political animal", a set of values guides people. Alan is wrong again to attack "populism", a defense for people "under siege" (p.18) by those who would steal or swindle their wealth and property. Who or what is Alan Greenspan for? The claim "excess government spending causes inflation" does not define "excess" (p.35). Can that happen without devalued money? Knowledge is important for planning production (p.46). Excess inventory causes a recession (p.47). The story of "creative destruction" (p.51) ignores the effects of entrenched mismanagement on corporate decline. The Randitti are confused (p.52). Governments guarantee your life and property and prosecute those who would take either. The costs for this are called taxes. Either you have taxes or a powerful state that owns most property.
  
  The Kennedy tax cut worked by adjusting for a devalued currency and made ordinary people more prosperous. When money was devalued it led to a deteriorating economy (p.55). Urban renewal (p.57) was a scheme to destroy small businesses and neighborhoods in order to create large plots that could be sold to large corporations. This eminent domain continues to this day. Were Nixon and Clinton the "smartest presidents" (p.58)? Both were impeached. Did Nixon have a split personality (p.59)? "He hated everybody." Inflation and higher taxes take money from the people and this caused a recession (pp.60-61). A tax rebate to the public can correct a recession (p.68). The discussion on page 69 tells about central planning. Was the soaring inflation of the late 1970s caused by the big bank's acceptance of petrodollars alone (p.84)? The 1980s recession was planned by the Federal Reserve (p.85). What is the difference between a recession and a depression (p.87)? Reagan couldn't handle facts, he called that "overbriefed" (p.89). Again, the cure for stagnation was to make Americans more prosperous with a tax cut (p.92). Alan makes another misstatement on page 98 about employers paying the payroll tax; the employee pays for it all. Read "Schedule SE".
  
  I know a person who immigrated from Poland and hears from relatives there. Alan talks as if the end of price controls led to success and happiness there (p.133). The fact is people there are suffering the worst years of their lives since the end of WW II. How can Alan make such a ridiculous statement as "private property is sinful" (p.140)? The question of usury ("lending at interest") involves distinguishing between money itself and ownership of a share in an enterprise. What about bankruptcy? The story about the Enlightenment changing this view overlooks the activities of the Medici and others in the 15th century. [The many mistakes suggest this book was written by others.]
  
  Chapter 17 ignores the improved economy in South America in the 1930s, or the military coups that followed the "Alliance for Progress" in the 1960s. Alan is wrong to ignore the protectionism before WW I (Chapter 17). There were protectionist tariffs from the Civil War (p.366). Alan wants more government involvement against fraud (p.375). If all those new workers "put a brake on price increases" why are prices going up (p.383)? Would a younger Alan have welcomed immigrants who were economists (p.407)?
  
  Chapter 22 has Alan's attack on Social Security. His says workers should save more (p.417). This could reduce the economy's growth rate (p.416). The shortfall in Social Security funding is caused by reduced wages. This results in higher profits so the correct solution is to add payroll taxes to long-term capital gains (until the shortfall ends). The real problem with defined-benefit pensions (p.419) is the dismantling of New Deal regulations; this allowed those High-Tech stock swindles. Companies can no longer make long-term investments to pay for pensions. Social Security remains the life preserver. If big corporations can't make safe investments for pensions, what chance will a lone worker have?
  
  
  
• like a good dry wine
  By A34ZMJ0W0206GQ on 2007-09-21
  This book is an entertaining look back at the life and times of one of the great economists. It is often dry, and at times has a tendency to drift towards "fedspeak", but it provides a fascinating look at the thoughts, the pressures, and the inner workings of the man who ran the Federal Reserve for so many years.
  
  Greenspan describes his early years--when he much preferred reading "Copper Ore Deposits in Chile" than Gone With the Wind, and struck up a friendship with Ayn Rand. His descriptions of working with many of the US presidents is perhaps the most interesting part of the book--you'll find plenty of discussions of these in various reviews. He was, with rare exceptions, under great pressure from most of those presidents (and other politicians) to run the Fed to achieve various political goals, and unlike most political appointees he resisted that pressure, and the US is much better off for his resistance.
  
  For me, the most interesting moment in the book is when he was to testify about Bush II's proposed tax cut. Greenspan was going to endorse that cut, but with significant caveats. Before his testimony he had a long talk with Robert Rubin, and Rubin was very concerned. Greenspan could not understand Rubin's problem. Rubin said "The issue isn't so much what you're saying. It's how it's going to be perceived". Greenspan replied that he couldn't be responsible for people's perceptions. Rubin was right--Greenspan was portrayed as having unilaterally and unconditionally endorsed the tax cut. That was an easier view for the White House and news media to present. The caveats were too complex and confusing for most of the public to grasp--so they were ignored. Greenspan understands the problem: if you are as influential as he was, and you know your remarks will cause major misconceptions, what do you do?
  
  As I noted, there are some forays into FedSpeak and techno-talk. "If real labor income is a fixed share of real national income or GDP, then L = a * Y, where L = real labor income and Y = real GDP, with a being labor's share of GDP. L = w * h where w is the real wage and h is the number of hours worked. Since w * h = a * Y, then w = a * (Y/h), where (Y/h) = real output per hour." But this tends to be the exception rather than the rule, although I have a sneaky feeling that Greenspan being who he is, he might have preferred this to be the rule rather than the exception, but common sense, editors, friends and family helped keep things on the right track.
  
  It's a good, solid work. You may find some parts slower going than others (as in the previous paragraph), but when you get through you'll have a much better understanding of the man and his accomplishments.
  
  
• Finally learn what was on his first-rate mind all those times it was his job not to tell us.
  By ATN1SSKTJD8Z8 on 2007-09-28
  This one was worth the wait. For two decades, Alan Greenspan couldn't directly express his thoughts; his role as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board made it impossible. Now that Ben Bernanke has taken the reigns of the world's most powerful central bank, it's freed Greenspan to let us in on what he's been thinking for the past 20 years. The result is a surprisingly readable and truly penetrating insider's look at the worlds of finance and politics and how they've changed from the Ford administration until now.
  
  What is most impressive about Greenspan's thinking and writing is how balanced and subtle his analysis is. He offers careful praise and insightful criticism of every president with whom he worked. He never accepts or rejects any of them wholesale. Every idea is reviewed on its own merits, regardless of its source. If this book offered nothing but Greenspan's measured analysis of the people he's known, it would be weel worth reading, but that's just the start.
  
  Greenspan gives you a peak behind the scenes of the Fed and into his own head for the 20 years he served as our chief central banker, even getting playful from time to time (letting us in on his thoughts on CNBC's briefcase indicator that judged the thickness of his briefcase as a sign of interest rate moves.) Further, he offers his insights on the shift towards globalization, technology's power to enhance productivity and changes in the economic systems of countries around the world. He also looks at today's popular economic worries and gives you his thoughts on why we should or should not be concerned.
  
  The writing is so good that you flow through it, learning all the way. I came away floored with the clarity of this man's thoughts. Highly recommended for anyone who enjoys economics or history or who just wants to get a little insight into how a truly powerful mind functions.
  
  
• Fascinating. Couldn't put it down.
  By A1FHIJE262WF1N on 2007-09-29
  From musician to the world's most powerful economist, Greenspan tells his story and provides new insights into economic cycles and events, political figures and the game of politics, and his own mind. Although every page of this book is enlightening, Greenspan's comments about the October 1987 stock market crash added an invaluable strategy for my personal investments. Do not miss this first-rate book.
  
  
• Read Greenspan`s Bubbles to get the other side of the story
  By A2X59HP7IXJ8PQ on 2008-03-09
  This book is filled with distortions and apologia.
  He was the primary cause for the Internet stock market bubble and the current sub-prime housing crisis.
  Read this book, but also read the other side Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve by William Fleckenstein and Fred Sheehan
  Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve
  
  
• Solid autobiography
  By AQQLWCMRNDFGI on 2007-09-22
  This is a solid autobiography with some interesting twists. Thus far, many reviewers focus their attention on his assessment of presidents. While this is interesting, there is a lot more to this book than that. Indeed, a brief line on page 14 is a subtext throughout those portions of the book dealing with his public life (page 14): "If the story of the past quarter century has a one-line plot summary, it is the rediscovery of the power of market capitalism." He also notes, as another subtheme, that (page 18) "It is in our nature. . . to persevere and advance in the face of adversity."
  
  The biography begins with a straightforward but not necessarily very insightful depiction of his younger years, from birth through college and into business. His association with Ayn Rand is an interesting "plot twist." Those not familiar with this part of Greenspan's like (myself included) will find it useful to place his career in context. It is interesting to learn of his interest as a youth in music and baseball.
  
  In terms of his public life, this work well depicts the growing circle of heavy weights, and how this networking culminated in Greenspan's accession as head of the Federal Reserve Board. We get insights into a number of major economic figures--Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Herb Stein, Bob Rubin, and so on.
  
  His work with presidents began with his role as an economic advisor to Richard Nixon. Because of some strange moments (when Nixon lost his cool and went berserk), Greenspan chose not to serve in his Administration, until the very end. He rated Nixon (with Bill Clinton) as the two smartest presidents that he ever worked for.
  
  Next, he took on an expanded role with the Ford Administration. He notes that Ford was admirable in his simplicity and lack of airs. His economic values (federal spending restraint, a balanced budget, and stable long-term economic growth) were concepts that Greenspan was most comfortable with. His evaluation of Jimmy Carter is not so positive. When Reagan assumed office, Greenspan became more engaged. E.g., he served on a panel to "save" Social Security. In the end, he was named Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. There follows his many years in that role, working under very different presidents and economic perspectives--from Reagan to George H. W. Bush to Bill Clinton, to George W. Bush. His evaluations of Reagan and Clinton are far more positive than toward the two Bush's, one of whom he felt disengaged from the economy (the elder) and one of whom was irresponsible with the public treasure (the younger). Again, it is the analyses of presidents that many have fastened upon.
  
  However, the later chapters are intriguing in their own right, when he judges major economic issues such as the nature of economic growth, the Chinese accession as a major player on the world scene, debts, globalization, his aversion to regulation as a policy tool, the challenges of an aging world, and energy. His last chapter, in a sense, is quite interesting, as he tries to project the state of the economy in the year 2030. Those who have read and appreciated the recent book "The Black Swan" will probably be amused by Greenspan's analysis, as he begins by saying that his analysis is based on certain assumptions, but if unexpected events occur, then everything is up for grabs.
  
  The book is functionally but not compellingly written. I would have appreciated a bit more self-reflection on his earlier years. But this is a useful work to read because of the author's key role in the economic and financial world for so many years.
  
  
  
• Introducing New Measurements to the Fed
  By A1SJ07NNJ1G60Z on 2007-09-25
  Of all the things he talks about in this book, the item that may be the most important yet gets the least attention by reviewers is how Greenspan introduced to the Fed a particular statistical analysis method called Bayesian analysis. Greespan finally took the analysis of uncertainty and risk in the Fed to be on par with with best methods available. Bayesian analysis is a method for updating prior probabilities with new information. It is not particularly complicated, but it is central to how to reduce uncertainty and risk with new information.
  
  Unfortunately, he doesn't get into the detail enough for most readers to really understand the approach. I would highly recommend Doug Hubbard's book How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business to anyone in business who wants to understand this powerful method. I had only the most basic introduction to stats in college 20 years ago and Hubbard's book still makes it perfectly clear to me.
  
  In fact, after reading Hubbard's book, it seemed like Greenspan himself would have learned a lot from it. Greenspan's shortcoming in the use of Bayesian methods is that he wasn't necessarilly logical in his choices of new information. It didn't appear that he computed (like Hubbard does) the value of new information which he would then use to seek out new information accordingly. If he did, he would probably find that some of the most valuable measurements he could make probably got less empahasis than lower value measurements he spends lots of time and effort assessing. Hubbard calls this "The Measurement Inversion" and it appears to apply to the Fed as well as it does to any business.
  
  In short, Greenspans book is simply much more relevant to managers looking to him for insight on decision making when it is read along with (or after) Hubbard's book.
  
  
• Evidence on Why Central Banks Need to Go Or Be Publicly Owned
  By A1S8AJIUIO6M9K on 2007-09-21
  I have always admired the author, and until 9/11, bought into the myth that the Federal Reserve was a remarkable institution and an essential part of our stability. No longer.
  
  This is a first-class book, a mandatory examination of the US and global financial systems from an insider's perspective, but it completely avoids the harsh reality: there is a global class war going on, the paradigms of secrecy and scarcity and war are killing us; there is plenty of money for all seven billion of us to be billionaires, but corruption and greed are concentrating wealth as never before.
  
  I am especially distrubed by the author's own admission that he lobbied the White House for an attack on Iraq to "secure" the world's oil supplies. As a professional intelligence officer who agreed with General Tony Zinni on the idiocy of attacking Iraq, I am shaken. His expression of that opinion is akin to a brain surgeon trying to compose music. Our entire system failed because Dick Cheney is a nakedly amoral person, and all the other checks and balances failed to operate as designed by our founders.
  
  With respect, and with sadness, I list a few contrarian books below. I have two explicit recommendations for the next President:
  
  1) Eliminate all income taxes by taxing every Federal Reserve transaction 0.006 cents and use the wealth that makes available to provide free public education to the planet "one cell call at a time"
  
  2) Support the creation of the EarthGame(TM) with embedded transparent budgets published in advance and voted on by all of the people all of the time. Congress is impeachable for its secret earmarks and its failure to stop the attack on Iraq (or the coming attack on Iran), and in my humble opinion, We the People are very close to a general strike. [Bush's appearance in NYC on 25 September could be the first public coming togather to peacefully bring down a government that no longer represents the goodness of America or the average American.)
  
  For additional background see the Internet posting "A Fed Panic and a Massive Bailout of American Banks paid for by the entire world." If you cannot find it, it is also in the Collective Intelligence portal page at my corporate website.
  
  The Global Class War: How America's Bipartisan Elite Lost Our Future - and What It Will Take to Win It Back
  Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
  Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil
  The Road to 9/11: Wealth, Empire, and the Future of America
  The Greatest Story Ever Sold: The Decline and Fall of Truth from 9/11 to Katrina
  Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Petroleum
  The Cheating Culture: Why More Americans Are Doing Wrong to Get AheadThe Economics of Information: Lying and Cheating in Markets and Organizations
  Rogue Nation: American Unilateralism and the Failure of Good Intentions
  Vice: Dick Cheney and the Hijacking of the American Presidency
  
  Positive books that I cannot link to because of the ten book limit, but which another reviewer might wish to list as a collective endeavor for us all:
  Getting a Grip: clarity, creativity and courage in a world gone mad
  WIKINOMICS: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything
  A POWER governments cannot suppress
  The TAO of Abundance
  All Rise: Somebodies, Nobodies, and the Politics of Dignity
  Escape the Matrix
  The Tao of Democracy: Using Co-Intelligence to Create a World that Works for All
  Blessed Unrest: How the Largest Movement in the World Came Into Being and Why No One Saw It Coming
  Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future
  Wealth of Networks: How Social Production Transforms Markets and Freedom
  
  
• Refreshing Honesty
  By AET0BM5622UV1 on 2007-09-24
  An excellent book which is especially suited for readers who are disinterested and fed up with books on political spin and partisanship but are interested in learning some truths about the inner workings of the Federal Reserve, the US government, and the personalities running the government.
  Dr. Alan Greenspan the former Chief of the US Federal Reserve shares his wisdom with us and gives us an insider view of the government apparatus in action. Greenspan in this commentary also shares his human side, his intimate thinking, and his personal opinions. He admits some of his mistakes, his weakness, his failures, his successes, his personal interests, and some of his life history.
  The book's introduction begins with the 9/11 disaster and the government's response and his and others role in the aftermath. I believe he starts from the perspective of the 9/11 recovery to substantiate his view of the resiliency and strength of this new world economy, and the creativity and future of the American people.
  
  
  
• Essential reading but only part of the story
  By AJ2300FG17HHP on 2007-10-01
  This is certainly one of the most important books of the year, required reading for anybody who wants to stay abreast of current economic affairs. Alan Greenspan gives an overview of the development of the world economy during his highly successful tenure as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and gives predictions (with caveats of course) of the likely economic events up to 2030.
  
  He approaches his subject with a definite bias towards free markets, which he argues must be based upon the property rights which are guaranteed to citizens by their respective governments. He recognizes, however, that unrestrained capitalism can lead to vast inequities of wealth.
  
  He favors free trade, arguing that NAFTA and similar trade agreements increase total GDP of the nations that participate. He argues that globalization has aided his attempts to keep interest rates low, because it has increased the pool of laborers, thereby driving down the cost of labor.
  
  But such a process cannot continue indefinitely, and he predicts that as it becomes more difficult to bring additional low cost laborers on-line, inflationary pressures will mount, and interest rates will need to rise in order to keep inflation in check. Restraint will be needed to counter "populist responses" to the new challenges, such as those adopted in many Latin American countries during the last several decades. At times, Agentina and Brazil have spent beyond their means, with the consequence of hyperinflation. I can remember visiting Brazil several years ago during one of its bouts with the hyperinflation disease. I needed handfuls of bank notes to pay for a bus ride, and when I was paid in local currency for delivering a lecture, I had to spend the money the same day to avoid depreciation---I bought some emerald earings.
  
  Unfortunately, Greenspan tells only part of the story. We are running out of resources---oil is most prominent in the news, but other resources are becoming scarce as well. As our population increases, the effects of too many people is not only a shortage of resources, but global warming.
  
  It is too bad that as a rule economists hold population growth as being outside their purview. Indeed, the economy history of the last century can be seen to some extent as a struggle between new technologies that improve the standard of living, contrasting with a rising population which decreases the quality of life.
  
  Greenspan compares the stronger economic advances made by China (with its somewhat repressive political system) with those of India, which is the world's largest democracy. How can it be that more freedom has not fostered greater economic growth within India? The simplest answer is that China has curtailed its population growth with a one-child policy, while India's population continues to grow unabated, and its total population will soon overtake that of China.
  
  When population is expanding, many of the benefits of industrialization are spent on paying for the additional inhabitants. A perusal of the almanac shows a striking correlation between population growth and dysfunctional governments which fail to meet the needs of their people.
  
  Even within the US, population growth is destroying our standard of living. Greenspan argues that the Achilles heal in the US economy is its decaying elementary and secondary education. But governments in California and elsewhere are struggling to fund adequate elementary education for a growing horde of illegal immigrants. The breakdown in the US borders also threatens the homogeneity in our society which is needed to reach democratic consensus. The populism in government that Greenspan deplores becomes ever more likely as we allow immigration to exceed our ability to assimilate.
  
  To preserve most of our freedoms, we must give up one---the freedom to have unlimited numbers of children per capita. The fatal flaw in NAFTA was that it did not come with a mandate that Mexico adopt effective family planning policies. Absence such a mandate our choices are limited, and there is a growing danger that leadership will pass from the US to Europe and China, as we continue our descent to third world status.
  
  American citizens are dying because of lack of health care. US veterans are homeless because they cannot compete in the new global economy. We need a more measured approach than unrestrained capitalism. We need universal health care and standards in our trade agreements, such as NAFTA, that will enable all participant nations to develop without destroying the safety net we need for our own citizens.
  
  

• The Nine: Inside the Secret World of the Supreme Court
• The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
• The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm
• A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation
• Giving: How Each of Us Can Change the World