The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel Reviews

• Get out of oil-dependent assets, as long as politics corrupt, energy policy will never be real

  
  By A1S8AJIUIO6M9K on 2006-03-15
  
  I am giving this book a 5 instead of a 3 or 4 because I believe that it does a superb job of laying out some facts that every normal adult needs to understand, and I want to encourage everyone to buy and read this book.
  
  That having been said, I also found it disappointing. The author's main points can be summed up in this review, and take less than an hour to absorb in the actual book:
  
  1) Peak oil and the need for alternative energies are being over-shadowed by myopic media and lack-luster academics that focus on poverty, climate change, terrorism, everything but the core Achilles heel of the Western world, its addiction to cheap oil which is no more.
  
  2) Cheap oil is made possible by blatant political and financial maneuvers that enrich a few and set the rest of us up for life long poverty. Government subsidies and tax breaks purchases by expensive lobbyists giving expensive gifts and cash bribes to our politicians are directly responsible for pre-determined failure of our energy policy and the lack of an energy strategy.
  
  3) The catastrophic nature of the collapse of cheap oil is dramatically enhanced by the combination of the *huge* U.S. deficit and by the increased prospects of war over oil.
  
  The author concludes with some bottom line advice for investors: get out quickly from stocks associated with high oil usage (airlines, autos, chemicals; followed by cosmetics, food requiring processing and transport, and retail dependent on far away factories and raw materials).
  
  I disagree with one key point he makes. He assumes that Wall Street and the media have been ignoring this problem because of "group think." I certainly do agree that the larger mass of the public and the average bureaucrat that do not know any better have fallen prey to unethical propaganda, but I am quite persuaded by Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy; Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil; The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century and other books that this catastrophe in the making was clearly understood by the White House and the US Senate in 1974-1979, and a very deliberate selfish even treasonous decision was made to profit in silence and let the people fry.
  
  This is a much simpler book than most of the others I have read and recommend, but I give it a solid five stars because if you can only afford to buy and read one book, this is the one that will be easiest and most to the point.
  
  And just to drive the point home, when WIRED had the cover story on alternative energy, Cheney was meeting secretly with Enron and Exxon, and went on to amass 25 documented high crimes, 23 of itemized in my review of this book (Cheney makes Agnew and Johnson look like wall-flowers--this is the guy that put HIGH into "High Crimes."
  Vice: Dick Cheney and the Hijacking of the American Presidency
  
  

• A Must-Read

  
  By A1JTXSQKYVYHBV on 2006-02-22
  This is a funny book. I am quite interested in the subject of peak oil, and for a non-geologist, fairly well acquainted with the science behind it.
  
  What's funny about this book is that the title and the cover lead one to think that it's another "How to profit from the coming asteroid strike!" investment books. I picked it up expecting little more than a good laugh, and ended up shelling out hard cash for a full price copy -- something I rarely do, and I have the receipts from Amazon to prove it.
  
  I find much to agree with in the review written by "a diplomatic historian," but here's the nub of the problem:
  
  "This book is based upon the major notion that growing energy demands from China and India will squeeze us and propel oil prices into the stratosphere. This is self-correcting through normal economic processes."
  
  No, it isn't self-correcting through normal economic processes, unless one includes stratospheric oil prices as a normal economic process.
  
  Almost 30 years ago, a song by the band Tower of Power warned that "there's only so much oil in the ground." The song was written during the first oil crisis, which as Leeb points out was really a political crisis rather than a supply crisis. It turned out that there was considerably more oil in the ground than most people would have thought in the late 1970s. However, Tower of Power basically had it right. Natural economic processes hold great sway over natural resources -- up to a point. But if a resource is truly in short supply, economic processes cannot conjure more of it out of thin air. If they could, we would be buried in cod, what with the prices having gone up manyfold in the last decade or so.
  
  In any event, this book is very much worth reading for its clearly argued contention that a shortfall of oil supply is about to push us towards a very serious economic and social crisis. Leeb is right about the growth of China and India and he's right about the lack of growth in oil production. In short, he's right.
  
  

• Ignore the lurid, juvenile title.

  
  By A15Y3M8QLUO1YN on 2006-03-03
  The only disappointing thing about this book is the title. If I had not already read Leeb's previous book, 'The Oil Factor', I probably would have passed on this. Instead, I bought it immediately. The title puts it in the same crackpot category as Ravi Batra's rantings and the old gold bug diatribes from the 1970s, and that's a shame.
  
  The book itself is an interesting sequel to the 'Oil Factor', but not quite as eye-opening since I've had 2 years to get into Peak Oil literature and energy investing. Leeb is an investment advisor, and his books are clearly biased toward the profit motive. His best contribution in the new book is his neat explanation of why Peak Oil isn't all over the media. Leeb's background is in psychology (a PhD), and he explains the psychological theory of "groupthink" where the best and brightest in government, industry, and academia simply go along with a consensus way past the point where it makes sense. In this case, the idea that there's plenty of oil out there is the groupthink chant coming from the likes of Rex Tillerson (Exxon CEO) and Daniel Yergin. The rest of the world then follows along. On the other hand, Leeb's investment advice is conservative enough that if Rex and Dan turn out to be right, you will end up owning some fairly conventional large cap investments like GE, Exxon, Schlumberger, P&G, and a few utilities, as well as some gold. Not a bad portfolio.
  
  Leeb also differs from James Kunstler ('The Long Emergency') in his optimism for alternative energy sources. Kunstler would call this "cargo cult" mentality, where those technological/free market demigods will come down from the sky and give us the great gift of a cheap, non-polluting replacement for oil/gas/coal.
  
  I'd give 'Oil Factor' 5 stars simply because it made me some money and clued me in, and this one 3 stars -- a decent book but kind of superficial compared to the other peak oil lit. However, the seriousness of the situation is starting to dawn on people like Leeb. The energy situation, if it's as bad as peak oilists think, is more than just a chance for a few clever investors to make a pile of money (see Richard Rainwater's comments in a recent issue of FORTUNE), it's a real emergency. Leeb thinks it's a matter of survival, and believes that whether we like it or not, families with the most money will have a better chance of survival in a very dangerous future.
  
  

• Infinitely annoying, but still important to read.

  
  By ATN1SSKTJD8Z8 on 2006-09-12
  A lesson from Chicken Little: when you are announcing that the sky is falling, make your argument as palatable as possible to people who obviously don't want to hear it.
  
  Stephen Leeb literally argues in this book that the very fabric of Western Civilization faces a grave danger of disintegrating because of rising oil prices. That is an extreme, but potentially feasible thesis. However, Leeb presents his theory in such a smug, one-sided manner that even the open-minded won't want to listen to him.
  
  I am a confirmed believer in the thesis that oil prices are headed substantially higher; $200 a barrel in the near future doesn't seem at all far-fetched. I believe that the economic pain that would come with such an increase would be dramatic. All that said, I don't believe that the most likely result of that scenario is the downfall of Western Civilization as we know it.
  
  Leeb takes every variable in the oil/economy/society equation, makes the most unfavorable assumptions possible, states them as known facts and then extrapolates. Where that doesn't work for his thesis, he generalizes or blames loosely-defined concepts (group-think is a favorite he returns to constantly). On top of all that, Leeb's writing is dripping with arrogance and disdain for those who don't already see what he sees. At one point he literally writes, "You don't need to be a PhD in psychology - which I am - to know that..." Who actually says stuff like that?
  
  Obviously this book annoyed the heck out of me, so why 4 stars? Because ultimately there is a small, but very real chance that Leeb's arrogance will be justified and he'll actually be right. The best defense against this outcome is more people becoming aware of the threat that increasing oil prices pose to our economy and maybe even to our way of life. Even if Leeb is only partially correct, and rising oil prices only cause a massive recession, it still seems like we should be doing more to prepare for the day when oil becomes too pricey for most of the things we use it for today.
  
  Ultimately, I think that the free market and human inginuity will prove far more powerful than Leeb gives them credit for and our government and leaders will prove as unimportant as they usually do in these situations and things will find a way to work themselves out. For that to come true, more people need to become aware of the very real threat posed by higher oil prices. If Leeb's screaming of "The Sky is Falling!" doesn't do it, I don't know what will.
  
  

• Concise and to the point, what to do to invest in a world of peak oil.

  
  By A2JH8U8CPBGS03 on 2006-04-10
  I am not going to rehash what many of the previous reviewers have said, if they gave this book 5 stars, I agree with them. I have read many of the books Leeb and Strathy quote so I was already familiar with the whole peak oil concept (peak oil was last August I believe, kudo's to Deffeyes, he was right all along).
  
  The comments I will make have to do with the whole concept of inflation as a good thing. In this book, the authors contend that if the Fed has to chose between fighting inflation and deflation, they should fight deflation. I think they are right. The rising price of oil is already starting to percolate through the economy so we will see some real inflation starting up over the next year or two. So who holds alot of our debt? Thats right, its our friends the Saudi's and the Chinese. Most of the current speculative real estate debt is also sold to foreigners as securities backed by that debt. If inflation comes roaring back, then these large debts get easier to manage, paid back with cheaper dollars etc. I can only guess thats what our bureaucrats are thinking about in Washington as they look for solutions to our titanic deficits. Gold and real estate certainly look good in that kind of an environment, so the authors investment advice is sound.
  
  Since this book came out, Bush finally went on TV to decry our dependence on foreign oil. Imagine that. I don't believe he actually read this book, but I am sure others around him have. Its very clear now that the price of oil is only going up regardless of any short term spot oversupply. A pity he wasted 6 years of his administration in denial. Hopefully the next President will wake up and smell the coffee.
  
  An interesting comment made by the authors is a discussion one of them had with William Kristol and how he was unable to be persuaded with the arguments for peak oil. Having seen Mr. Kristol's smiling assurances on TV that all will turn out well in Iraq just a few weeks ago (even as fellow conservatives like Francis Fukuyama are reaching for the parachutes on that subject) that does not surprise me. I would like to see what kind of book he will write 10 years from now when all this is so obvious. "Confessions of a Group-Thinker" would be a nice title.
  
  Get this book, read it, follow its advice. You will be glad you did.
  
  
• useful for beginners seeking investment advice, but historically not well conceptualized
  By A1DIF8ABY7GM6Q on 2006-02-22
  For those believing in obtaining useful investment guidance from those trying to get rich by selling "how to get rich" books based upon alarmist and cataclysmic economic apocalypse, this book offers a considerable menu, though it is somewhat rudimentary and non-scholarly, meant more for the beginner or intermediate investor but certainly not for the sophisticated and experienced investor. This fact demands some caution. There is nothing in this book that focuses on asymmetric knowledge that exists in the stock markets, in the commodities market-- though less so in the gold market--which always favors either the insiders or those with superior knowledge. Hence we have the first caveat: this book is for beginners, for the naive ones who are bound to lose in markets heavily and unavoidably characterized by asymmetric knowledge. The second caveat is a philosophical-historical one: the book is based upon false economic-historical interpretations, namely, that a 200 dollar per barrel oil price will cause economic collapse.
  
  Any economic historian can point to the fact that high energy prices have always been the mother of necessity bringing about major breakthroughs and, thus, improvements rather than catastrophies as this book would lead us to believe. In the l8th century England, wood was used as a major source of energy and fuel and Sherwood forest and others were cut down raising prices amid fears that fuel was becoming scarce, yet causing coal to become price competitive. Ultimately, the industrial revolution, based upon coal, broke out in England, and, though major adjustments and hardships were part of it, it did raise the living standard considerably. Once a transition from coal to oil and natural gas came about without much fanfare, further improvements resulted. Ditto with the introduction of electric power. To make a transition from one source of energy to another has happened often and should not be viewed as causing an economic collapse. Nor need we worry that much about "running out of oil," insofar as the price will rise and ration oil so that alternative sources become price competitive in such a manner that we will never run out of oil, since renewable oil sources, alternative energy sources, etc. all become activated.
  
  What one should be concerned about is the frantic overspeculation that shows up in economic history from the Dutch tulip mania of the l7th cent. to the l9th cent. railroad boom and bust to the speculative fever in the electric power sector of the l880s to pre-'29 stock speculation and even the largest institutionalized theft in all of economic history that characterized the roaring nineties. Looking at all the ramifications and consequences of the millions of Americans who lost money when they invested in hundreds of companies that produced no products and never would have a product, one is justified in asking whether or not the authors are trying to restart another round of overspeculation.
  
  Beyond this, the authors are viewing an economic collapse to be approaching. This historian, having spent decades on comparative economic history, dissents and would say the slow and silent relative economic decline has already been with us for decades and has been largely self-caused through monetary and fiscal policies that were not focused on the economic interests of the masses but determined largely through corporate interests. There is no economic proof that heavy participation on part of tens of millions of Americans in stock market investments, commodity speculations, etc. has entailed a favorable impact on their family/individual net worth. In fact, comparative economic statistics are showing the contrary. Stock markets, commodities and real estate investments are all zero sum games in the aggregate with the qualified exception of precious metals. For this reason, any investment advice must rest on those elements that enlarge the economic pie for the masses rather than merely rearranging it in markets whose asymmetric knowledge is always bound to favor the insiders, the few, the experienced ones who will transfer the wealth from the masses to the few who retreat ever more to oases or securitized and gated communities.
  
  This book is based upon the major notion that growing energy demands from China and India will squeeze us and propel oil prices into the stratosphere. This is self-correcting through normal economic processes. What is far more worrisome is the increasing burden of military expenditures and fiscal and monetary policies not serving the masses and lots of other elements such as ecological strains. Together, they are far more burdensome than competition for energy sources, and they are the ones which should be the foci of correction and sound investments. Moreover, fiscal and particularly monetary policy should not be used to spread the risk across the masses as Greenspan has proudly proclaimed to be the case. Once these elements are corrected and the administration's priority shifts away from foreign policy to domestic policy, some of the investment advice of the authors would become more attractive.
  
  
  
  
• Good Advice!
  By A22RY8N8CNDF3A on 2006-04-14
  Leeb summarizes the evidence about future oil supply and demand - unfortunately between rising population, the new demands placed by China and India, and credible evidence and reports of declining supply, it adds up to a likely future economic crisis for the U.S. - much higher oil prices and serious inflation.
  
  Most interesting, and valuable, were his investment recommendations - stay away from cash and bonds (except Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), and stocks (based on their performance during the 1970s inflation period). Instead, focus on gold, oil and oil companies, real estate, liquefied natural gas, and alternative energy suppliers.
  
  Ignore this issue (and book) at your peril.
  
  
• A unique book about investing for the coming oil scarcity
  By A1E2RWNLW3KISM on 2006-02-24
  Peak oil is a scientific theory and a big conspiracy at the same time. The scientific theory originated with Dr King Hubbert in the 1950's and is now entering mainstream thanks to an avalanche of books on this subject. In short, that theory predicts that worldwide oil production will soon start to decline dramatically even if oil will not run out for another century. The main facts of that theory are easily found on the internet (google "peak oil") so there is no need to go into details here. The more interesting aspect of peaking oil is the huge worldwide conspiracy going on about which almost nothing is accessible to the public (not even on the internet). That conspiracy is about the catastrophic transformation of our industrial civilization as a consequence of the unfolding energy scarcity. These consequences are being hotly debated by government agencies all over the world behind closed doors, yet almost all goverments refuse to discuss this subject in public. Not only that, they refuse to take necessary steps in order to prepare the world for the coming perpetual crisis. While the conspiracy of politicians is easily explained (inertia, denial, short term thinking, fear of public unrest and destabilization of the system etc), the real conspiracy is happening in financial markets and monetary circles (central banks).
  
  The value of modern fiat money is in essence derived from the value of oil fiat money can be exchanged for. The fundamental question arising from the peak oil theory is: How can the huge amount of present day wealth stored in financial instruments (stocks, bonds, mutual funds etc) be preserved in a world running out of oil? How can the value of retirement savings be preserved in a future without oil? Former Fed chairmen Alan Greenspan, when confronted with that question a few months ago in congress, responded by saying that "We can guarantee the avaiability of (social security) funds, but we can not guarantee the avaiability of goods and services to be paid for by these funds". In short, Greenspan thinks that the purchasing power of our Dollar can not be maintained in the future. Stephen Leeb - the author of the book under review - arrives at the same conclusion in the first part of his book. He predicts that the unfolding economic future will be a perpetual repetition of the economic malaise of the 1970's. In the second part of his book, he discusses various investment strategies in order to take advantage of this prediction. Not surprisingly, he recommends to shift savings into precious metals (gold), the energy sector (oil, natural gas and alternative energy) and real estate. Although many oil stocks have risen in price threefold to fourfold during the past 3 years, Leeb maintains that these stocks are still undervalued given that oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel in a few`years.
  
  To sum up, this is a unique and important book. Highly recommended to everybody who is concerned about preserving the purchasing power of retirement savings in the future.
  
  P.S.: This is an update of a previous book "The Oil Factor" published 2-3 years ago. In comparison, the present update radiates much more fear and despair about a potential "threat to civilization".
  
  
• A waste of paper
  By A2ZAWV041MMDUM on 2006-02-27
  I wished I'd checked this out at the library first and avoided the expenditure. I just got the book and jumped to the paragraph on 'Alternatives to Oil' wanting to see the meat and potatoes of this book. This book follows the same short sighted thought that hydrogen will somehow save us through the use of windmills. It fails to mention that hydrogen is not an energy source but an energy carrier and that the creation of hydrogen is a net energy loser. OR does it mention that something like a half million dollars worth of platinum is needed for "each" fuel cell in each car! That alone was enough to toss this book but another jewel I found was the mention of the collapse of the Soviet Union. It states basically that all it took to survive was their allowing the loss of some complexity in their system. It fails to mention that the average lifespan of soviet citizens fell by more than decade and somewhere around 30 million people died during the "adjustment".
  His investment advice is pretty standard stuff too; invest in inflation adjusted bonds, gold, oil stocks and (what a shocker) alternative energy! The investment advice could've been covered in a small booklet. Save yourself the cash and invest it in some canned foods.
  
  
• Title is a bit misleading
  By ACISYLJ6DANAT on 2006-03-13
  Having read eight books about peak oil, I have to say that this book was a little disappointing. The book's secondary title, "How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel" leads people to buy it for investment advice about peak oil, but out of 15 chapters, only the last 3 give any investment advice. The first 12 chapters are about how foolish mankind is for wasting oil and being unprepared for peak oil, ignoring the warnings of the 1970s. True enough, but chances are he's preaching to the choir, because if you bought this book, you already suspect peak oil will be a problem. I suspect Leeb wrote it this way (making you wade through 12 chapters of preaching before getting to the 3 chapters on investment advice) hoping that leaders in business, politics, the media, and academia will read it and be convinced to take action. A noble goal, as unlikely it appears with the current U.S. regime in bed with the oil companies.
  
  The book offers little proof to convince skeptics that peak oil will happen soon. Leeb's training is in psychology and economics, not geology, so this book is very short on geological facts, not enough to convince anyone who is not already familiar with the coming peak oil crisis. For people looking for proof that peak oil is coming soon, I recommend instead books by Ken Deffeyes, Matt Simmons, or Richard Heinberg.
  
  My biggest problem with Leeb's book is his choice of alternatives to oil. The replacement energy sources he recommends are in this order: wind, coal, and nuclear power. My own house runs partially off solar power, but Leeb writes off solar energy, lumping it together with fusion power as something that won't be useful for many years! He only mentions solar for electricity generation, saying it's expensive, but he totally ignores solar water heating (which is cheaper than gas or oil), solar space heating, etc. He claims that solar electric cells have a maximum efficiency of 10%, but in reality that's about the minimum, and solar cells of 15% to 20% efficiency are available today. Again, Leeb's specialties are economics and psychology, not energy.
  
  Once you make it to the final 3 chapters, I believe his investment advice is sound, or at least I hope it is, as it's similar to my own investment choices already. Leeb names specific companies to invest in, as well as industry sectors, and also what to avoid.
  
  
• Investment guide/nonpartisan introduction to the coming energy crisis
  By A1E37DNGUC3GCI on 2007-03-06
  For those who aren't familiar with the issues surrounding the peak in oil production, this easy-to-read book provides a short introduction to the hard times ahead. It also serves as a resource for those investor-types who want to try to surf that chaos and make a tidy profit. The authors, both experienced financial writers, set the stage for discussing the imminent oil shortage and its consequences by recounting the late-90s tech bubble and the fact that few investors noticed the unsustainability of this bubble. "The oil delusion is a mirror of the technology delusion. While almost everyone in 1999 believed that the bull market in technology would endure, almost everyone today believes that the bull market in oil is temporary" (12). Needless to say, the authors don't share this assessment of the oil market and go to great pains to explain their contrarian conclusions. The coming peak in oil production (whether this year or in 20 years), the increasing insecurity of American oil supplies, and the growing need for energy resources in China and India are creating "a clash between supply and demand that will send oil prices soaring to unprecedented levels" (19). According to the authors, the only thing that will postpone this hyper-bull market in oil is a worldwide depression, a situation that none would consider beneficial.
  
  The near-future scenario outlined by the authors is similar to that predicted in other works on peak oil; in short, it entails at best a massive depression and reduction in societal complexity, and at worst the complete collapse of the economy and of civilization as we know it. "[A] crisis of epic proportions is brewing" (89). They assert that this crisis can be prevented or at least mitigated against and they repeatedly affirm their hope that it will be. However, they also recognize the profound failure in American leadership and the profoundly deluded perceptions of our economists, media, and citizenry about this looming crisis. In the 10th chapter, they outline a few possible visions of what the world of the near-future might look like---decline, stasis, or Armageddon---none of which options is particularly appetizing to someone raised in a world of boundless growth and opportunity.
  
  The primary author, Stephen Leeb, holds a PhD in psychology, and he uses this expertise to articulate the blind spots of conformity and groupthink that are contributing both to this crisis and to the fortunes that will be lost with the economic downturn. Wise investors like Warren Buffett and George Soros have succeeded because they've not followed conventional wisdom. Likewise, the reader is challenged to abandon groupthink and to grapple with the reality of this looming crisis, both for reasons of personal financial success and for reasons germane to the whole of human civilization.
  
  It is in the final two chapters that the authors outline their preferred investment classes and strategies for growing wealth in the hard times ahead, so if you just want them to show you the money, so to speak, you can skip the rest and read those concluding chapters. For those who want an introduction to the coming energy crisis, the rest of the book is an excellent, nonpartisan place to start.
  
  
• Wake up America
  By A3J99KE1J0C13N on 2006-03-22
  Many of the reviews of this book seemingly rationalize the reason for writing the book in that they seem wholly oblivious to how obvious and serious our energy problem is. Leeb, who correctly forecast the current uptrend in oil prices in his 2004 book (in addition to correctly forecasting the bull market of the 80's and 90's as well as the tech wreck) argues that many civilizations have ended because policy makers refuse to pay attention to obvious threats. Citing many studies by Diamond and Tainter he points out that groupthink more than resource depletion has been responsible for the demise of civilizations from Rome to Easter Island.
  Our most recent flirtation with disaster in this economy - the tech bubble - was a prime example of groupthink. We barely avoided destruction during the early part of the decade but as Leeb points out we may not be so lucky when it comes to energy.
  The case for an energy crisis does not necessarily rest on arcane and controversial analyses of peak oil but rather on basic "front of your face" assumptions. Over 2 billion people are developing at once thus assuring a concomitant and protracted increase in energy demand. It is far-fetched in the extreme to think politically volatile and economically undeveloped countries - even if they have the oil - will be able to satisfy this demand. As basic as these facts are they are still being ignored by politicians, Wall Street analysts and the public at large.
  The true tragedy is that there are alternative energies that could fill the gap. Arguments for the economic (not environmental) advantages of wind have appeared in the most stringently reviewed scientific press. It is remarkable and perhaps remarkably tragic that these studies have not received any broad based coverage. In other words, groupthink denies the energy crisis and denies potential solutions.
  America, we have to wake up.
  Leeb concludes his book with an analysis of investments that have the best chance of protecting you over what will very likely be a very turbulent decade. It is worth noting that the portfolios Leeb recommended in his last two books dramatically outperformed the market. Had you followed his advice in his 1999 book you would have made money during the bear market at the beginning of the decade.
  
  
  
• Not as good as "The Oil Factor". What happened to Berkshire?
  By AWZ0UT54358Z on 2006-03-01
  Much darker than "The Oil Factor". I bought the book for updated investment strategies.We didn't get to that until 85% through the book and it was about the same as the Oil Factor with the notable exception of Berkshire Hathaway which had a whole chapter in "The Oil Factor". It was not even mentioned as an investment in this book. What gives?
  
  The authors just couldn't come right out and say "We are done and it is over" like Kunstler does in "The Long Emergency". For investment advice, the first book is much better and I would give it 5 stars. This book is like a rant by someone who just woke up to the really dire situation we face. Save your money and time and read "The Oil Factor".
  
  
• Opportunity knocks
  By A180TZ6CUVED7Z on 2006-06-08
  The title of the book is aptly chosen to describe what lies inside. Yes, there is a problem of soaring energy prices and at the same time it offers a rare opportunity to multiply our investments several fold if we make the right portfolio choices.
  
  The book is a logical continuation of the previous book "The Oil Factor" by the same author. Oil prices have almost doubled since the Oil Factor was published two years ago. While the Dow has been relatively quiet since then, select investments in commodities especially in gold and silver have given handsome returns during this period.
  
  Energy prices are heading northward, led by oil, thanks to limited supplies on planet earth. We also have huge associated problems due to the burning of fossil fuels and disposal of nuclear waste. Discovery of major oil reserves ( like the Saudi "Ghawar" examined in detail in "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew R. Simmons) remain a remote possibility even statistically. On the other hand China and India are fast accelerating into the international highways for their due share of energy consumption. As a society we fail to understand and refuse to accept oil as a diminishing resource due to "group think" says Dr Leeb, citing several examples of failures of old civilizations, quoting extensively, particularly from another excellent book "The Collapse" by Jared Diamond.
  
  The book then turns to the economic consequences that we are likely to face soon in an era of high energy prices and the portfolio choices that can protect and even grow our investments. The thread that links prices, inflation, interest rates, impact on various industries and finally their profitably and stock prices is woven extremely well. Alternate energy sources are discussed, but in my opinion deserves better treatment.
  
  Dr Leeb examines and challenges the Modern Portfolio Theory and argues that instead of staying invested in the market as a whole, and while a majority of fund managers actually under perform in comparison to market performance, the most successful investors like Warren Buffet have made fortunes by investing in select stocks that turned ten baggers. In the context of rising energy prices, when the "oil factor" is positive, inflationary pressures can have a devastating effect on economies. The American economy is particularly more vulnerable due to its huge oil imports and rising trade deficits. Alternate options and possibilities that may be adopted by Central Banks and Governments to fight the inflationary pressures under rising energy and commodity prices are discussed well. It is precisely in such a scenario that we come across several investment opportunities that are not only the best bets to beat rising inflation and weak markets but perhaps also to make a fortune. A separate chapter lists these opportunities, starting with Gold.
  
  To recall an old saying - When opportunities knock at our doors most people complain of noise. Very few rush to open the doors and embrace it with open arms. This book can make a huge difference on which approach we take when oil hits $ 200 a barrel.
  
  
• "Oil Factor" made urgent
  By A1TNBNT1S6W2G5 on 2006-03-26
  '60 Minutes' featured Brazil in one of its March 2006 broadcasts as nearing total independence from reliance on the world's oil by converting to ethanol produced from sugar canes. If we were to enter a serious oil crunch, it would seem ethanol and biodiesel would be immediate solutions. That these two feasible alternatives got a mere paragraph bundled together in this book may be distorting the big picture.
  However, as a reader of his previous "Oil Factor", I can attest to the author's well-timed advice, and his solid track record as an investment advisor.
  Books reviews aside, the crucial matter of OPEC's singular control of oil prices and the growing shortage going forward are not to be dismissed lightly. 7 months after Katrina, the floor on crude oil price seems solid at $60/barrel.
  
  
• Leeb attempts to strike a balance, and is mostly successful.
  By A3MHGGHQOCH11U on 2006-08-15
  I'm not totally sure what Leeb's intended audience was: for most people already versed in Peak Oil concepts (Hubbert's Peak, the lack of viable alternatives to oil, and the disparate uses of oil in industrialized world) most of this book will seem like little more than a rehash of these concepts designed for the sort of people who read "Reader's Digest." Peak Oil types (some of whom are not exactly bucking hippie stereotypes) will probably think that Leeb is soft-pedaling the issue, even though he does about the best job he can given the la-la land that most Americans continue to wallow in. (He effectively deconstructs the mythological "hydrogen economy", going so far as to quote James Kunstler, who probably should have been discredited after his Y2K scare-mongering.)
  
  The second group of readers probably consists of people who take business very seriously: these were the same people who bought into the dot-com mania hook, line, and sinker in the late 1990's and expect the economy to return to that paradisical state (any day now!) These people think that the market can solve anything and they probably view any naysaying about oil as little more than a rehash of 70's scares involving oil scarcity and "new ice ages". It has been my general experience that the worshipers of Friedman and von Mises are a religious bunch and no amount of "tree-hugging" scaremongering is going to change their view that a "free market" always solves everything. A free market MAY in fact solve everything, if you don't consider "saving modern technological civilization" as part of your criteria! When the epitome of the Establishment elite, Matthew Simmons, goes on a radio interview and states that oil prices could easily go up "ten times" given a serious disruption in supply, little guys should at least take notice. Given that, Leeb might turn out to be downright optimistic.
  
  Given this, I think Leeb does an admirable job of tying all of the information together. At times this book does feel a bit "thrown together" but that is probably inevitable given its timely subject matter. One of the most worthwhile parts of this book is Leeb's deconstruction of the dot-com economy. I think most readers will be surprised to learn just how close to the precipice we were during that time, and just how astutely Greenspan managed to save the economy (although the reader will probably still be left feeling he's being cured of cancer with a morphine drip.)
  
  Nevertheless, this is a worthwhile read. Anyone who buys an investment book that incorporates "tree-hugger" lingo should know what they're getting into, and this book does a good job with all things considered. The only reason I'm not giving this five stars is because I honestly thought that there would be more information on how to make money in it. 90% of the book is just devoted to a discussion of Peak Oil and its relation to psychology: the last couple of chapters dealing with money-making seem almost tacked-on and can be effectively summarized as: invest in precious metals, real estate, energy stocks, and alternative energy sources. Most of this, again, is obvious, and I was a bit concerned that Leeb's endorsement of "real estate" might lead to the notion that it's OK for Joe Six-Pack to go out and buy another rental property on an ARM. The bottom line is that one should invest in things that have intrinsic (not speculative) value, and that the cost of everything carries with it the implicit cost of the energy required for its construction.
  
  Keep in mind that books like Leeb's are generally written for the top two percent of the population. The average middle-class type who scrimps just to put 15% in his 401k every month is in a different position than the sort of person who thinks of investments in the seven digits. Your 401k ain't gonna save you: buying a few thousand dollars in gold or a solar panel array is at least a step in the right direction.
  
  The bottom line is that you can take or leave Leeb, but to ignore everything in this book completely would be foolish. Additionally, I've made more money following Leeb's advice in the last year (I was effectively "following his advice" before I read this book) than I did with my 401k over the last five years, which is as good an endorsement as can possibly be given.
  
  
  
• Right on the money
  By A385OI574VTI53 on 2006-03-01
  I have been reading Leeb on and off for more than 20 years. While he has not been perfect I can say that the jacket copy in the book is right on. On the big trends he has been unfailingly right and for the right reasons. For example, in his book during the mid-80's his premise for the big bull market was based on predicting a dramatic and sustained decline in inflation. Nor was he bearish on tech simply because tech stocks were richly valued (though that was certainly part of the reason) but rather because he rightfully felt that information technology was not up to solving society's major problems such as energy. His most book before the present - The Oil Factor - was clearly right on and again for the right reasons.
  Given Leeb's record his latest book is truly frightening. We are ignoring a crisis which if ignored much longer could become truly catastrophic. Frustrating is that there are solutions but not the will or willingness to apply them. The review from the reader in Eugene, Oregon is evidently typical of the ignorance that is so pervasive is this country. That reviewer dismisses wind as an alternative with fatuous factoids. Leeb's conclusions on wind come from peer reviewed articles by Stanford professors.
  As a parent and investor - one who has made a lot of money with Leeb's advise - I urge everyone to read this book and take it very seriously. It may not be too late in the day but it is very late in the day.
  
  
• You should read this book. Period!
  By A2MIIM573XT7VE on 2006-03-25
  I don't like surprises. Especially if they are bad. So I think you should read this book. Dr. Leeb makes a very strong case about an impending oil shortage and the damage it would cause. He also discusses the possible Fed responses. I thought the book was well written. We live in a very dangerous world. One or two major catastrophes could change the way we live very quickly. If anything keep your eyes open for indications that may suggest a major change.
  Two things are for sure, by the time the media gets a clue it will be too late and most politicans have no ability to think in a strategic manner. Let's pray Dr. Leeb is wrong. Plus let's start pushing for some amazing technical advances in energy creation. By the way, my electric, gas and gasoline bills have been on a steady rise. Good luck.
  
  
• Investment advice, but, more fundamentally, societal advice
  By A17DI37DFS230A on 2006-06-14
  
  I have only read about half of the book so far but I believe I have read enough to make a pretty legitimate assessment of it.
  
  I have just begun looking into the peak oil phenonmenon; the only book I have read so far is Kuntzler's "The Long Emergency".
  
  As both a value investor as well as someone who wants to get a handle on where our society is headed, I guess it's inevitable I would find this book to my liking.
  
  The material for the most part is rock solid in terms of technical soundness.
  
  The discussion of the development and subsequent decline of complexity as a civilization rises and falls was a concept I guess we all have some instinctual awareness of (the specter of "reverting back to the stone age"), but it is great to see that it is an issue that has actually been studied, and I look forward to reading the work by Tainter on the subject ("The Collapse of Complex Societies").
  
  Since my strongest interest related to this topic is the matter of alternative energy sources, I skipped ahead to that chapter.
  
  I have just done some extremely cursory study of that issue over a very short time (I hope to put a great deal of my time into it after I retire in 1 1/2 years), but I have already come to some tentative conclusions about the relative merits of alternative sources of energy, and Leeb's assessments largely coincide with mine. The first source he mentions is wind, and he indicates it has huge potential, something I have also concluded.
  
  One area where I perhaps differ a bit with him is on the less accessible forms of fossil fuels. He seems to feel they are a possible supplemental source to get us switched from fossil fuels to renewables. My feeling is that those sources are so abundant that I believe it is possible that when the oil supply shock hits hard there will be crash programs to establish high-volume production of oil from oil sands, oil shale, and, to a lesser extent, coal. (by the way, he mentions oil sands but not oil shale, which is reasonable considering it is considered much less certain as far as whether processes can be developed to produce large quantities of oil from the shale.
  
  The total energy of those "more difficult" forms of oil is something like double the worldwide oil supply before we tapped into it, so (even accounting for the fact that we will lose a fraction of that due to energy that needs to go into the production), I could imagine the world could chug along as an economically-growing oil-chugging society for maybe the whole 21st century, assuming society takes that path.
  
  That would obviously have huge environmental issues, but I feel that when the price of oil gets high enough that there is a substantial drop in the standard of living that environmental considerations will get tossed by the wayside.
  
  (one slight criticism- Leeb never mentions global climate change, which I would think has got to be mentioned at least somewhere in a book like this to be complete. But clearly the environmental aspects are not a major focus in the book, and these issues are discussed a great deal in many other places so it is reasonable that Leeb chose to put his focus on other aspects.)
  
  One more comment regarding alternative sources: Leeb and Kuntzler give a good contrast between the more optimistic view of alternative energy sources and the more pessimistic. While Leeb perhaps is a little bit too optimistic about some sources, Kuntzler has arguments why nothing is going to work. (e.g., you need and oil-based economy to produce wind turbines)
  
  The truth is no doubt somewhere in between.
  
  
  
  
• Savvy Investment Knowledge
  By A35MYXXOEF0659 on 2006-02-24
  I have found Dr. Leeb's investment insights particularlly helpful and profitable ever since picking up his prior book Defying The Market, which correctly foresaw the tech bubble collapse of the early 2000s. In this followup to his latest investment book The Oil Factor, Dr. Leeb returns again to his belief that the world is facing a major energy crisis which in turn has significant economic and financial investment ramifications. Simply stated, oil supply cannot grow fast enough to keep up with demand growth. Dr. Leeb's argument is straightforward and easy to believe given how the rapid rise of China and India's economies has led these countries to consume natural resources at a breakneck pace. On the supply side, Dr. Leeb is a believer in Hubbert's peak, which suggests oil production is actually declining globally (Oil fanatics and Hubbert's peak followers may notice Dr. Leeb's mentions on http://peakoil.blogspot.com/). I have found Dr. Leeb to be ahead of the pack-- as he was with the release of The Oil Factor-- and this book presents a clear and concise argument that our world is lacking in abudant energy sources which will make the next few years a very difficult investment environment. As he did in the Oil Factor, Dr. Leeb offers a range of investments that should prove profitable if his worst fears of $200 oil come true. Overall, an interesting read for those both unfamilar and familiar with the oil and stock markets.
  
  
• What if it happened?
  By A1OLPMM8SD2BL1 on 2006-03-13
  The title is definitely attention grabbing and a little sensational, but I think the real question to ask is what if this did happen and its something we need to be prepared for. Clearly the price of oil has been going up, clearly its a market that's relied upon by everything we take for granted. If the oil market shuts down because it can't support its own trade, then everything else is going to wind down as well. There has to be more awareness of this, more effort put into making sure "the coming economic collapse" doesn't happen.
  
  If that awareness comes in the form of sound investment advice, which Dr. Leeb has an excellent track record for, then this book is the market indicating where investments should naturally go to keep our currency stable.
  
  This is a book that needed to be written and it needs to be read.
  
  
• Amateurish effort
  By A7UT67THLY21Q on 2006-03-21
  The title of the book promises insight into why, how, and when oil will reach $200 a barrel. Instead he uses a few graphs with primitive analysis to make his case. He says he is not an expert on the oil economy. How does he have the temerity to believe that taking a brief foray into the field he can be confident he has the answers that true experts disagree about so widely. In the reading I have done Hubbert's peak will be reached anywhere from last year to 35 years from now.
  It looked to me like he hade about 4 or 5 chapters worth of material but nevertheleess wanted to make a book out of it so he filled the rest with topics on the psychology of crowds and general observations about the market. Mostly fluff.
  The last few chapters provide sound financial advice on managing money in times of high inflation but none of this is new.
  Finally I was disappointed with his effort in general. It was poorly written and inadequately researched. I would have been embarrassed to charge $25 for it.
  
  
• Gives what may be some practical advice about oil shortages
  By AU7ND6NOCX9IA on 2006-09-17
  As other reviewers have pointed out, this book by Stephen Leeb makes some straightforward points. We have a complex global civilization and a tricky national economy. And we have a large global population. That puts us all at risk in a number of ways.
  
  In academia, there is an emphasis on some long range problems. One set of essays from academia that Leeb mentions lists the following ten challenges:
  
  Climate change
  Communicable diseases
  Conflicts
  Access to education
  Financial instability
  Government corruption
  Malnutrition and hunger
  Migration
  Sanitation
  Subsidies and trade barriers
  
  Leeb notes that the authors realize that there may be a problem with running out of fossil fuels. And that Jared Diamond, in his book "Collapse," lists this as one of his twelve threats to our environment. But Leeb warns us that the most immediate problem may indeed be an energy shortfall, as opposed to one of the ten listed above.
  
  It may appear that we have enough fossil fuels to last for quite a while. In the past, we have generally underestimated reserves. But that's not the entire issue. If the price of fossil fuels quadruples, the effect on our overall economy will be very large, and we need to figure out how to cope with that. And the risk of this happening, and happening soon, is high.
  
  That means that as responsible people, as prognosticators, and as investors, we owe it to ourselves to figure out both what needs to be done about this problem and make educated guesses about what will actually happen. The media, academia, government, and even the market may not accurately reflect reality here. They have plenty to deal with, and they are subject to pressure themselves.
  
  The author has a chapter about China and India. These two nations have a huge population and a growing economy. In addition, they may not only need economic growth and cause a big increase in oil prices, but (in my opinion) they may well continue to consume more oil at those prices, sustaining these increases.
  
  Leeb warns us that there is a finite amount of oil, and that we are obviously consuming it at a much, much faster rate than we are producing it. But a more immediate problem is that the rate of oil production will not keep up with the consumption.
  
  Does this mean that we will experience significant inflation? It certainly could. And if it does, that means as investors, we ought to hedge against it with precious metals, oil shares, real estate, and maybe stocks related to China and India (such as MMM, KO, INTC, PG, and TXN). Real estate may seem dubious considering that it may already be overpriced, but Leeb makes the argument that there are forces against it crashing. That may keep it roughly where it is for a while, after which inflation would raise prices.
  
  On the other hand, there is a serious risk of a rapid rise in oil prices triggering deflation. That would, of course, cause a downturn in the inflation hedges. Leeb likes zero coupon bonds as a hedge against deflation.
  
  In any case, if we are to get through the energy crisis we face, alternative sources of energy will almost surely have to play a bigger role than they do at present. Leeb thus recommends that we consider investing in some alternative energy stocks. He likes wind energy best. An example is SPI. Another is General Electric. Yet another idea is liquid natural gas, where he likes companies such as CBI and APD.
  
  If oil production is not keeping up with demand, then marginal or alternative oil producing locations may do better. That includes Canadian tar sands, which means growth for companies with stakes in that area such as PCZ, SU, ECA, and COSWF. And there's advice on more alternative energy ideas, including, of course, uranium.
  
  What about hybrid cars? They can easily halve the demand for gasoline for many drivers. Would that make a difference? Of course. It won't solve the long range problem of running out of oil, but it will directly address the immediate problem. I'm about to buy a Prius, and I may not be the only one. Leeb suggests buying stock in Toyota, or even in Honda.
  
  The material in this book is not profound. But it does offer some practical suggestions on how to do well financially in a world which is doing okay. And that makes sense: we can't always do much to hedge against a variety of complete catastrophes, but we ought to make plans for doing well if there is a significant additional rise in oil prices in the near future.
  
  Of course, we do have to be careful even in this strategy. Once most folks know about which hedges are best, I think that these companies get overbought, and one's return on such investments tends to be negative. That happens to the majority of such investors. So I also advise being very watchful here.
  
  I recommend this book.
  
  
  
• Investor newsletter sold as a book
  By A66HESZ3U7O4U on 2006-10-01
  Dr. Leeb's book makes a lot of sense regarding the consequences of running out of oil, and the growth of world demand outpacing the growth of supply even before supplies dry up. The question is when will all this lead to catastrophic consequnces for the world economy. Dr. Leeb suggests that this is imminent, and we are facing $200/barrel oil prices within the near future. As I am writing this review, oil prices are retreating; after having reached nearly $80/barrel, they are now around $60. How much this is due to a transient decrease in demand (the interest rate hikes by the Feds have slowed down the US economy that has some additional slowing effects worldwide), and how much this is due to price manipulations during the months leading up to the US midterm elections, is yet to be seen. The Feds may have averted stagflation for the time being, but it is doubtful that oil prices (a major reason for inflation) will remain at the current, milder level. Dr. Leeb has some recommendations for investors how to cope with the oil price explosion and period of stagflation. The advise is sensible, provided stagflation is coming in the near future. If we assume that Dr. Leeb has to be right at some point of time, but not necessarily in the immediate future, the investment strategy he recommends may lead to suboptimal returns.
  
  This book has enough information for a good article in the Wall Street Journal. It might even fly as an investor newsletter. It is also worth about as much as the advise of the self-proclaimed gurus. The only person to make money with this book with absolute certainty is Dr. Leeb (and his coauthor, Glen Strathy). They took a plausible idea, actualized it, expanded the writing to blow up the page numbers, and turned a brief newsletter into a book that can be sold at a profit. I would like to believe that the intentions were more noble than this. The authors repetitiously described their altrustic motives to prevent the collapse of our civilization. It might sound cynical, but I have reservations ragarding the true motive behind writing this book.
  
  The actual advise in the book is relatively brief. For the novice, who takes investment newsletter advise at face value, the advise will sound well supported by facts, and thus convincing. This is just as dangerous as acting on the advise of a newsletter. The advanced investor will probably not benefit from this book, and will not even waste money on it. That leaves the intermediate level investor that can benefit from the book. This type of investor reads several sources, including data from the market, and learned to filter and interpret the information. This is the category of investors that would not subscribe to newsletters (already learned that it is mostly a waste of money, and the reading is almost exclusively for entertainment), but might want an occasional book or magazine article to see where the market is headed (according to gurus). Dr. Leeb proclaims a contrarian standing on oil futures, and that might be the best argument for believing him. However, being a contrarian does not make him automatically right. Nor does the current drop of oil (and oil industry stocks') prices mean that he is wrong. One must ponder whether this (perhaps short-term) drop is the best time to buy shares of SLB or OII...
  
  Apart from being repetitious, the book is well written and entertaining.
  
  In summary, my advise is to read the book, borrow it from someone, find a copy in the library, or if you want to buy it, buy it used for under five bucks. The full price is not justified by the benefits of the investment advise. The advise is not unique, and you can assemble it yourself (perhaps with even a better selection of stocks and REITs) for free simply by searching Yahoo!, MSN Money, and other internet sites.
  
  
• Don't tell your friends
  By A2KUR1HF130VHH on 2006-05-17
  Your friends will probably think you're a pessimist and/or insane, but you need to read this book. What is more, you need to take action on it. The book is written in layman's terms and can be somewhat frustrating to an academic (like myself), but the points are solid and I think the author's choice to avoid piles of data and focus on the outcome is a good one (If you want piles of data, read Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons). Strathy discusses the severe supply constraint in the face of rapidly increasing demand; an economic model for higher and higher prices. But the high price of oil isn't really the point of the book, merely the catalyst for his argument to take action. While he argues that "saving" ourselves from this impending crisis is the best option, he demonstrates that civilizations collapse when their resources become constrained or disappear and that we may well be past the tipping point on the path to such a collapse. He then goes on to give suggestions for how to survive the collapse economically. My biggest problem with his suggestion is to put a substantial portion of money into real estate. This isn't inherently a bad idea, except that residential real estate is very dangerous right now and one needs to be careful about which sector of real estate to put money into. Overall, a great book, definitely worth reading.
  
  
• Simplistic, yet essential.
  By A3991O075YPR19 on 2007-01-29
  This book really should have been a pamphlet. It covers very little ground and the gist of it could have been communicated in several pages rather than several chapters. It is also a bit sensational, yet publishers generally pick the title so I won't hold it against Dr. Leeb. Yet I gave it four stars because of how it is unique in the world of financial books--it reveals the ultimate fallacy that drives the ever-expanding market: there is not enough cheap energy left to fuel its growth.
  Much of the book makes comparisons between the future energy shortages and those of the 1970's. In someways, this is helpful, but in others it is misleading. I think Dr. Leeb relies to heavily on the 70's for guidance--the next few years could look much different (and the markets could respond much differently.) Yet his investment advice seems sound: divide your assets and place them in four different areas--energy, chindia stocks, precious metals and zero-coupon bonds.
  As sensational as this book is, I tend to believe that Dr. Leeb is wildly optimistic in his projections. He believes that there will be a relatively smooth transition from one form of energy (oil) to the next (?). If he's right, most definitely it is good advice to place 30% of your money in companies who have forged a good market in chindia. But my question is this: how will China and India continue to grow economically when oil is $200+ a barrel? I can't see that as a real possibility. Thus I'll be less weighted in chindia than Dr. Leeb advises and have more of my money in tangible assets (greenhouse, wood cook-stove, quality tools, wind power, etc.)
  Nevertheless, Dr.Leeb offers some good guidance for those of us who recognize that things are looking rather bleak in the world but are not exactly sure how we can prepare for it financially. This book coupled with a couple of good gardening books (Toby Hemenway's "Gaia's Garden", for one) and perhaps a survival book or two (think Tom Brown Jr.) will offer sage advice for those who see what's coming 'round the bend.
  
  
• Sloppy
  By A3O9VN0IAE3T7N on 2006-05-26
  I have a few significant qualms with this book. For one, there is no balance. Leeb completely buys into the idea of "peak oil" even though people have been predicting peak oil for 150 years, and the creators of "Hubbert's Peak" have refused to make their data available to be examined. The fact that this data is being intentionally hidden does not fill me with confidence that it is reliable. If you don't believe me, just do a web search on the topic and you'll see what I mean.
  
  I am thus left with absolutely no idea if peak oil is a real phenomenon or not, and Leeb offers no opposing viewpoints at all, probably because it wouldn't have been as apocalyptic a book if he did, and would not have been able to sell as well. My last criticism is that Leeb talks about how real estate stocks were very successful in the 1970s, and then forgets to include them in the model portfolios he shows at the end of the book. He gives no reason for not including them. This gives the book the feel of something that was thrown together very quickly without careful attention to editing. In summary, the book is mildly interesting, but whether the prognostications will prove true is anyone's guess. I couldn't argue with somebody who wants to add some energy, real estate and precious metals stocks to their portfolio, but I wouldn't get too carried away.
  
  
• Great Read, Investment ideas paid back 1000 times.
  By A2N06IQI6LJ6IR on 2007-02-20
  I could not put this book down. It all makes sense because greed and short sightedness rule this world. I put my money on two of his recommendations and have enjoyed outstanding returns. If I had bought stock in all of the companies recommended I would not have done so well. I bought Devon Energy because it is one of the larger indepenent oil & gas exploration and production companies in the U.S. One of the majors will eventually buy it to replace reserves. Also purchased Florida Power & Light one of the most diverified electric producers in our country. Their production comes from nuclear, hydro, coal, gas, wind, and solar. Thanks Mr. Leeb
  
  
• Collapse This!
  By A3B55PGQCN3IJE on 2008-02-09
  If you accept Mr Leeb's apocalyptic Peak Oil scenario and the possibly imminent "collapse of civilization," then the investment advice he offers seems oxymoronic. All the money in the world won't save you when the barbarians are at the gates. (Well, unless maybe you had the foresight and wherewithal to buy a big spread in Paraguay.)
  
  However, not to despair. Mr Leeb's argument is predicated on several faulty assumptions:
  
  1) That oil production has peaked and therefore cannot keep pace with growing demand from developing nations.
  2) That America can't survive a severe energy shortage.
  3) That gold is an excellent defense against hyperinflation.
  4) That $100/barrel oil will result in $10/gallon gasoline.
  
  Obviously, the last assumption has already proven incorrect.
  
  As to supply, oil has always been a commodity managed by the world's most powerful cartels. Production has been suppressed through both sins of commission (read, regime change) and sins of omission (obstructing development of major oil fields). There is no reason to suppose the present situation is any different from past "energy crises": here's a symptom of artificiality --- the price of oil has risen 900% since its most recent low in 1999, yet demand has only risen about 12%. Clearly there is a disconnect between demand and price.
  
  The theory that available oil is limited to shrinking, finite pools of rendered dinosaur fat may well prove a myth fostered by oil producers to "explain" curtailed supply. Consider the possibility that petroleum --- formed as in the lab from hydrogen and methane under high pressure --- leaks out of the Earth, pushed by centrifugal force along crustal fissures? Is it merely coincidental that oil fields invariably flank major fault lines and fracture zones? How else to explain the self-replenishing field recently discovered in the Gulf of Mexico? It is quite possible that supply may prove to be far more abundant than Exxon would have you believe.
  
  On the demand side, Mr Leeb posits inexorable growth -- yet it's easy to see how demand in the world's largest consuming economy, the US, could be reduced significantly, without hardship, if gasoline prices rose to "catastrophic" levels. There's no reason (except our customary extravagance) why US fleet economy couldn't be doubled, simply by our choosing to reduce the weight of our vehicles by a ton or two while decreasing the size of our engines by a couple of liters. No one really needs a 5000-pound SUV that does 0-60 in 7 seconds. Americans are supremely adaptable, if the price is right. One can even envision a future when privately owned, hybrid cars run on a network of rails; the combination of reduced friction, use of electricity while on the "net," and elimination of stop-and-go driving would result in massive fuel savings. For the present, ending our Middle Eastern military adventures would lead to lower energy prices as political tensions fell, along with Pentagon consumption. (The Air Force alone accounts for more than half the federal government's total energy use.)
  
  Gold is deflationary, which is why it's a dangerous investment. Mr Leeb is correct in noting that inflation serves the gov't interest by reducing the true cost of debt. Plus, capitalism doesn't work when prices fall. Deflation must therefore be prevented at all costs, even to the point of hyperinflation if necessary. If there is widespread ownership of gold in response to high inflation, you can bet "jackbooted thugs" will be at the door to confiscate your bullion, just as in the 1930s. "Windfall" profits taxes will be enacted to stop speculation in precious metals instruments.
  
  My investment advice? Put some of your money into the candidacies of those rare politicians who reject the conventional wisdom. The answer to America's energy dilemma lies in the political arena. We must somehow end the oil producers' control over Washington policymakers, freeing Americans to do what they do best: respond creatively and rationally to solve a very solvable problem.
  
  
  
  
  
• Sobering, well argued, must read for future investing
  By A1PJDV044CLYCY on 2006-02-24
  If you `enjoyed' Laurence Kotlikov's "The Coming Generational Storm" then you're sure to get a kick out of "The Coming Economic Collapse." Not in a good way, mind you. Kotlikov outlines the painful future economic effects on the American economy produced by poor fiscal policy, vote seeking decision makers, and an aging population. In this book Leeb and Strathy the authors take a more global view but it's just as bad: China and India want more and more of a commodity that is in finite supply. Americans (and to some degree Europe) have built an entire culture around transportation and cheap energy. When the two collide - along with other forces - someone will be on the short end of the stick.
  
  The author's goal appears two-fold: to explain the machinations already in place that will bring on this collapse and to help reading understand how to whether and possibly prosper from it. There is a bit of a chicken-little sensibility to the book though the arguments are hard to dispute. The book is well written and very readable.
  
  

• Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
• Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
• The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
• The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures , Revised and Updated
• The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself and Profit from the Coming Energy Crisis