Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy Reviews

• bad news from the SPE, via a Texas investment banker

  
  By A30RI0AJ4CQBU1 on 2005-06-16
  Matt Simmons has bad news about Saudi oil, very bad. Who is Matt Simmons? He's a Houston investment banker who specializes in oil. He's a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. Not a radical environmentalist, in other words, quite the opposite. What Simmons has done in TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT: THE COMING OIL SHOCK AND THE WORLD ECONOMY is to analyze the technical papers of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) on Saudi oil, shining a light behind the veil of secrecy that has shrouded it since OPEC stopped reporting oil production data in 1982. In short, what the SPE reports reveal is that the official Saudi claims for reserves and production capacity are vastly overstated. Further, tragically, it seems that the fields have been mismanaged, making it unlikely that all the oil will ever be recovered.
  
  Now someone with a suspicious mind might suspect that Simmons, a banker, has an interest in leading the market to believe that oil is scarce, because that will put upward pressure on the price, and the oil companies and he, their banker, will benefit. I do have a suspicious mind, but I am convinced by Simmons's meticulous presentation of the SPE data. It is probably the single most important piece of evidence that the world is entering the Hubbert's peak for oil ("peak oil" as it is colloquially and ungrammatically known). He systematically presents the data on every single big Saudi oilfield, from the biggest of all, Ghawar, which as of 1994 still produced 63% of all Saudi oil, through Abqaiq, Safnaya, Berri, Zulaf, Marjan, Shaybah, and smaller fields.
  
  Are there vast untapped reserves in Saudi Arabia? According to the SPE data, the answer is no. No giant fields have been discovered since 1968, despite intensive exploration. Here is a list of crisp facts about world oil, according to Simmons (p. 331):
  
  1) Only a handful of super-giant oilfields have ever been discovered in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East -- they represent a very significant portion of all ME oil, and they are all very mature.
  
  2) All mature giant oilfields peak and decline (production profiles showing the peaks are shown for 8 fields in Texas, Alaska, the North Sea, and Russia). Implication: sophisticated new technology will not prevent or forestall this from happening.
  
  3) There do not seem to be many giant oilfields left to be discovered in Saudi Arabia or the ME.
  
  4) Non-OPEC oil, excluding the FSU (former Soviet Union) seems to be peaking, or has already peaked.
  
  The consequences of all this, needless to say, are grim. It's been increasingly clear in recent years that oil had peaked everywhere else, but there was still supposed to be a vast reserve under the Saudi sands. Apparently this was a mirage. What this means is that we have to make the development of new energy sources the top priority! Of course, in the middle to long-term, it will have to be renewable energy, and the faster we move to solar, wind, and biofuels the better (See Hermann Scheer's excellent THE SOLAR ECONOMY.) In the transition, which is likely to be a rough ride, other less desirable alternatives are all but inevitable. Balancing available inputs (ie, plentiful coal) with toxic outputs and global warming will be a Faustian bargain. One thing we must demand here in the U.S. is an immediate major increase in the CAFE -- corporate average fuel economy, the standard for fuel efficiency. There is no reason it shouldn't be raised to 40 MPG in a few years. CAVEAT EMPTOR!
  
  For more vital resources on this topic, see my OVERSHOOT AND COLLAPSE? list.
  
  

• What If The Pumps Run Dry

  
  By A222LQEPE7O7BV on 2005-06-13
  The basis of this book is fear, not unwanted fear spread by the author, but it is the emotion you start to feel as you move through the book page by page. For good or bad the U.S. and the world have become reliant on one natural resource that is controlled by a very few countries and people. This fact alone should have most of us concerned, 60% of the oil we use each day is controlled by a bunch of countries that are primarily dictatorships surrounded by people that would sooner burn the oil in mass dumping grounds instead of selling it to us regardless of the price. We have become backed into a corner and it appears that our only response so far as been to flex our power.
  
  What will happen if the oil fields in Saudi can not keep up with demand? What if the production facilities are almost overmatched at this point and further facilities are difficult to put in place? All of these and more questions are covered in this book. The author also talks about the populations and political situation in Saudi and the picture he presents is another difficult and concerning one at that. One can only hope that the production in Iraq gets up and running or that better technology is hurried into production.
  
  The footnotes and documented sources detailed in the book give it the appearance of a very well documented and accurate study. The details on the production process in Saudi is worth the price of the book alone. It is a rather back handed slight at our news media that the very real issues presented in this book have not yet made it to the talking heads at 6 pm. Overall I enjoyed the book a great detail. It is well written and put together. The reader is never lost in the detail no matter how little previous knowledge the reader has about the oil business. What I found was that the good was a very fast read given that it is difficult to put it down. It is a book that we all need to read.
  
  

• Another dire warning that we must develop energy alternatives

  
  By ABN5K7K1TM1QA on 2006-03-28
  In his book Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak (2005) Kenneth S. Deffeyes warned us that peak oil is upon us and that what is left in the ground is just about the same as what we have already used. He pointed to Thanksgiving Day, 2005 as the day oil hit its peak. Now another world renowned expert on oil, Matthew R. Simmons in this densely considered book, is advising us that the estimates of oil left in the ground by the largest producer of oil, Saudi Arabia, are probably inflated, and at any rate cannot be independently confirmed.
  
  Furthermore, it is supposed that estimates by almost all oil producing countries are inflated since such inflation improves their ability to influence the market while allowing them (OPEC members at least) to produce more.
  
  A question that might be asked is how do we know that there are not great fields of oil somewhere waiting to be discovered? Certainly if there are, the twilight of the oil-based world economy is pushed further into the future leaving us with much less to worry about now. Simmons answers this question for Saudi Arabia at least. He makes it clear that the possibility of any great discoveries on the Arabian peninsula "must now be deemed remote" since the land has been so thoroughly explored. (See Chapter 10 "Coming Up Empty in New Exploration.")
  
  Deffeyes answered this question in another way. Using logic from his mentor M. King Hubbert who predicted with startling accuracy when US production would peak (early 1970s) Deffeyes argues that what's left can be inferred from current production curves. Because oil exploration and production has been so extensive world-wide, if the oil were there, it would have been discovered and drilled for. This is not to say that there are not some (small) fields left undiscovered. There are some, no doubt, but like puddles added to a great lake, they won't affect the overall picture.
  
  This same sort of logic can be applied to Saudi Arabia, and Simmons does indeed use such logic. However, he goes beyond that because he believes that oil prediction simulation models (see Chapter 12, "Saudi Oil Reserves Claims in Doubt") can fail. Typically, he writes, an oilfield will yield about 75 percent of its oil during the first half of its producing life. (p. 278) Almost all of the great Saudi fields are decades old.
  
  The strange thing about this book is that while it is touted as another book predicting the end of oil, it actually argues that the situation is not entirely clear. It is possible that there is still a lot of undiscovered oil left in Saudi Arabia in places such as "the land along the Iraq border, an unexplored area almost as large as California" and a couple of other places. (p. 243) World wide such unexplored places are many. Nonetheless even if a lot of oil is discovered say in the middle of the Pacific Ocean or deep in the Antarctic, the cost of producing that oil will be greater than the cost of producing oil from say the great Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia where the oil gushes out of the ground almost effortlessly.
  
  Actually, according to Simmons "effortlessly" is no longer the correct adjective to use. As oil fields grow old some help is needed to get the oil to rise to the top and flow. Water is typically pumped into the field to get the oil to elevate. Simmons reports on the extensive use of saline water in Saudi Arabia--more evidence that there is not as much oil left as the Saudis would like us to believe.
  
  Also a distinction must be made between pure "reserves" (actual oil in the ground) and "recoverable reserves" (oil that is cost-effective to produce). And a further distinction must be made between grades of oil. It may be cost-effective to pump the sweetest, purest grade of oil out of a field whereas lesser grades would not be worth the expense.
  
  A weakness of the book is that, despite the words "and the World Economy" in the subtitle, which suggest an exploration of consequences and what to expect, there is next to nothing about the effect less oil (than expected) will have on the world economy. Clearly, of course, and in the broadest sense, our standard of living will go down as our energy costs rise. The subtitle is probably just a book biz editor's attempt to gain a larger readership.
  
  Twilight in the Desert is long and extraordinarily detailed and gives the typical reader more information than perhaps would be desired. This reader came away convinced that Simmons's main argument, that Saudi oil reserves have been exaggerated, is probably correct, but curiously his extremely balanced and careful delineation left me feeling that there is still plenty of doubt about both Saudi reserves and those world wide. Stay tuned.
  
  Regardless, one thing is clear, soon or late, within twenty years or fifty, we will have to retool our economies to run on something other than fossil fuels. The sooner we get started on that, the better. If we wait too long the sudden economic shock is likely to be catastrophic.
  
  

• Reasonably Interesting Read but Unconvincing

  
  By A2VEB9Z1W5DD4C on 2005-08-13
  To summarize the book, Matthew Simmons proposes that Saudia Arabia is very likely to be fast approaching their peak oil production and will very soon face declining production. To support this, he puts forth a number of points, including:
  
  1) Saudia Arabia gets the vast majority of its oil from a handful of major fields.
  2) These fields are very mature and are constantly deteriorating in terms of water with the oil and the fact that advanced measures are required to extract the oil. Also, the fields may be damaged from overproduction in previous years.
  3) Given the nature of almost every other mature field in the world, peak production is typically followed by a very rapid decline in production.
  4) Despite extensive exploration, the Saudis have been unable to locate any more super giant fields, and the smaller fields they have found are insufficient to maintain a large supply of oil.
  5) Therefore Saudi Arabia is fast approaching "peak oil" for them. This will lead to a major shock to the world economy, since no other area in the world can replace a Saudi shortage in terms of production.
  
  To support these points, Mr. Simmons utilizes many reports that are typically from the late 70s. He also uses some current information, but the current information is very sketchy due the the current level of secrecy from the Saudis (They closed their open books in the late 70s). I think Mr. Simmons did an impressive job of collecting and presenting the information pulled together and the conclusions he reached. He also presents them in a very convincing way. The book is somewhat technical, and most casual readers will probably not appreciate this level of detail. However, readers yearning to learn more about the current situation of oil will find that this book is very educational in many ways. "Peak Oil" devotees will love this book.
  
  I only gave it 3 stars for a few reasons. The primary reason is that Mr. Simmons presents his arguments with a greater confidence than the research merits. Although he presents a lot of data (almost drowning the reader in statistics and reports), almost all of it is based on reports that are 20+ years old. He may be right on the money, as time will tell, but these old reports and his current estimates may also be way off. Yet, he presents his conclusions with the confidence of a scientist who has actually proven a theory.
  
  I also felt that he discounts the upside potential too quickly. For instance, he writes at length about how difficult it will be for Saudi Arabia to increase production, yet he doesn't fully discuss some facts he gives that suggest otherwise. For example, he tells us that the Saudi's have traditionally capped off wells that produce less than 250 barrels of oil per day. Think of the oil left in those fields! Also, he mentions that only of few thousand wells have ever been drilled in Saudi Arabia, while over 500,000 have been drilled in the US. This would seem to indicate that there is still a lot of potential in Saudi Arabia, yet he doesn't really seem to evaluate the upside.
  
  For the free market crowd (of which I am one), you'll be horrified to see his proposed solutions at the end of the book. He suggests that nations of the world need to come up with an oil plan and need to determine what the long range price of oil should be (He thinks this may be over $200). That sounds a lot like Jimmy Carter, instigator of our last "energy crises".
  
  Overall, I would recommend this book to those who have an interest in the effect oil has on the world economy, but I caution you against swallowing his assessment hook, line, and sinker. Even if he is right (and he may well be), the free market, if left alone by governments, will handle the allocation and use of oil correctly and efficently. Prices may go up, but this will lead to less demand and more efficiency.
  
  Mr. Simmons puts forth interesting arguments that I don't reject, but I'm not really convinced, either.
  
  

• Well Written - Very Detailed

  
  By A2ENIQZX6VJYUM on 2005-11-28
  This is a well written and well researched book by Mathew Simmons, an expert on the oil business including Middle East oil supplies. The book is a bit technical and is mostly solid information on oil extraction, the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, along with a number of projections. The best comparison that I can make is with a university reference book, but not a text book: it is a well written reference book with a very short introduction of Saudi history.
  
  The book is a little over 400 pages in medium font, and has many maps showing the locations of the oil, schematics showing how the crude oil is actually processed, photographs, and a number of tables. There are about a dozen large oil fields in Saudi Arabia. These fields are discussed, and comparisons are made with other large active oil fields around the world, including the North Sea oil fields started in the early 1970s. The core idea of the book is that we are about to face the reality of limited oil production in Saudi Arabia and in the rest of the Middle East: the situation is not good and projected inventories and extraction rates are too optimistic. The era of growing sources seems to be over, regardless of the political situation in the Middle East. The sources cannot keep up with the demand for oil that is expected to continue to grow.
  
  The book is divided into four sections and then has a very short appendix. The first section is just 69 pages and details the political and historical development of Saudi Arabia as a country, and the introduction of foreign oil companies.
  
  Section two is short, just 50 pages, and covers the subject of how the oil is extracted from the ground, and what has to be done to separate the crude from water, methane, and various other contaminants to get "pure oil". This includes photographs and a number of process schematics. It goes step by step through from the discovery of a field to how the oil is actually extracted and processed, and this can differ for different stages in the life of an oil field.
  
  Section three is the heart of the book. It is a long inventory and description of about a dozen Saudi oil fields with maps and comments. This is one of the biggest sections and takes up 110 pages. He goes through the inventory field by field explaining the size, location, problems, yields, lifetimes, etc. This is a relatively complete description of the Saudi oil situation and oil around the Middle East, in more general terms for the latter and a bit less detailed.
  
  The last section is about 100 pages and he describes the life cycles of various oil fields to show how the oil extraction rate varies with time. Each field goes through a life cycle, sometimes lasting decades, but each has a finite cycle length and each follows a similar production trajectory, i.e.; a slow rise in output at first to a maximum rate, then a peaking, then a drop off. The author has a lot of detailed information on many oil fields from around the world, along with their production histories. Most fields around the globe are on the down slope.
  
  Finally, he has a brief appendix with additional comments to show that the problem with the Saudi fields is an old problem, and he quotes past Congressional testimony and similar, going back from 1974 that back up his present case. The problem is not new. Saudi production is limited and the inventory figures are overly optimistic, and they have a history of being overly optimistic: production is just half of old projections, and raising production levels is not feasible.
  
  The general thrust of the arguments is that the fields are running at near capacity, will peak soon, and then drop off. They will not last centuries or similar. The date is a bit hazy, but with exponential growth in demand it will be sooner rather than later, probably the first decade of the present century, or maybe even this year or in the next few years. At that point we will not be able to meet oil demands, especially for the emerging nations of China and elsewhere.
  
  In summary, once the hype and opinion clears away, and the basic facts are considered, the oil situation is not good. Many economists, most politicians, and the general public have still failed to grasp that an oil based economy cannot be sustained indefinitely because of finite supplies - not taking into account whether carbon dioxide will destroy the atmosphere. Like lung cancer and smoking, there has been a long period of denial and a lack of any real effort to conserve oil or find an alternative. In any case, this book drives the point home - in spades - and with much technical detail. We are about to peak in Saudi oil production, and there are no alternatives. The tap will not be 100% turned off, but supply will peak, decrease, and not the meet demand; our economies and the use of the gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas, or diesel fuel will have to change sooner, not later. Few think that coal is a good solution, and the much promoted two step "clean-coal" has yet to be demonstrated, i.e.: step one works - the high temperature burring of coal, but step two, an effective method of sequestering the carbon dioxide is not proven. The latter is my comment.
  
  This is a well researched and well written book that outlines serious future oil shortages. 5 stars.
  
  
• Learn how oil is "produced" and why optimism isn't justified
  By A39NRF16WXNHYJ on 2005-06-12
  I rated this book 5 stars because Simmons is attempting to provoke a serious discussion, on a world-wide scale, on a critical subject (and perhaps he is succeeding). I have read so much on the topic of "peak oil" that this book did not serve as a warning to me; moreover, I do not think the book is the easiest way to get started on the subject. Indeed, an article about Simmons' views, written by Adam Porter on the English-language website of Al Jazeera back in February, served as my introduction to peak oil, and I soon ordered his book from Amazon, but read lots of other books while waiting for this one.
  Simmons digs into a most important subject, i.e. whether optimists (including the Saudi oil ministry) or pessimists are to be believed. He addresses this issue by combining an extensive overview of Saudi resources, capabilities, and history with an interesting and extensive description of what it actually takes to produce oil (especially today). This makes me feel I (finally) understand oil production at a depth suitable for an informed and technically aware citizen, something no other book has helped me do - before, I had to simply believe (or not) the flat statements of others. I also come away convinced beyond any doubt that worldwide oil production is now or soon will be in permanent decline. This is serious, as most readers of this review will probably already know.
  I believe all of us need to read as much as we can on the subject. I have read books with titles as follows: Collapse; Overshoot; Energy and Society (first half); The End of Oil; Blood and Oil; and Beyond Oil. I check EnergyBulletin.net every day. I've looked several times at Matthew Simmons' company Web site, which contains presentations by him. I've started to look into economic issues; I found papers by John Michael Greer and Joseph Tainter thought-provoking here. There's a lot to understand, since peak oil may have consequences across any aspect of our lives. Anyway, Simmons' book fills lots of blanks in the picture.
  btw, make sure you read Appendix C. And finally, Simmons is conscientious, neither polemic nor self-promoting. Where there is uncertainty on an issue Simmons is forthright in admitting it; and his claims are stated with enough detail that other experts in the field can argue any point. Because of this honesty, the book is probably going to be "the" basis for political action and public awareness.
  
  
• As Important as Churchill's Warnings About World War II
  By A9R5Q77FHRJZ4 on 2005-06-09
  In my opinion, Matt Simmons--and others like Jim Kunstler, Kenneth Defffeyes, etc.--are providing an important national service in attempting to warn us of what is coming.
  
  Mr. Simmons' book is exhaustively researched and documented. I recommend that you read the entire book, but if you only read part of the book, read the chapter on Ghawar, the largest oil field in the world. Probably 99.99% of Americans have never heard of Ghawar, but as goes Ghawar so goes the world economy.
  
  The Saudis are proudly boasting of their reserves and of their ability to ramp up their production. In Texas in 1972, Texas oilmen were similarly confident.
  
  In 1972, Texas was producing an all time record high amount of oil. Since then? Texas oil produciton has fallen for 33 straight years. If Texas were the sole source of crude oil for the world, for every four gallons of gasoline that we bought in 1972, we would be bidding for one gallon today.
  
  Once, Texas was as Saudi Arabis is today. Soon, Saudi Arabia will be as Texas is today--a permamently declining oil province.
  
  Hopefully, just as Great Britain finally listened to Churchill and started preparing for war, Americans will start listening to Matt Simmons, et al, and start preparing for a vastly different way of life.
  
  
• Book is a waste of time
  By A1D5UCNCPTCG4X on 2005-08-04
  This book's central conclusion misses the point entirely and the claim the the world is running out of oil is demonstrably false. While in specific cases and locations it is certainly true, indeed, even without the author's work, it would stand as patently obvious, that all currently exploited oil fields are being exhausted at some rate or another, the implications for the general picture are extremely limited. Specifically, all natural resources have an extraction cost, and as the most abundant sources are used, greater effort, and hence cost (at least in absolute terms) are required to extract these resources. What this means is that as the large, relatively easily extracted sources of oil (or any resource for that matter) are depleted, replacement sources requiring greater effort and investment (cost) will be developed. This cost is then passed along in the commodity price. This is the key.
  
  As easily extracted sources are depleted, costs will rise until one of two things will happen. Either greater prices enable the extraction from more marginally profitable (at todays prices) sources, thus maintaining the suppply, or rising prices will cause other sources of (in this case) energy to achieve a relative pricing advantage over oil and, hence, replace them in lower value uses (think kerosene heaters and lawnmowers) at first, and as prices continue to rise, in progessivley higher value uses (think automobiles, and at the extreme end jet aircraft fuel). Put succintly, when oil becomes more expensive than, say, solar power to heat your home, solar power will take over this function and relieve the demand.
  
  What this all means in the end is that, hard though this may be to believe (conditioned as we have been by pessimistic scenarios), that the world will ALWAYS produce all the oil we want, but that changes in price will moderate our appetite. The only real risk to equilibrium is, as usual, governments; specifically governments which seek to intervene (with the best humanitarian motives, of course) in the free float of oil prices either by subsidizing the cost to purchase or artificially underwriting the investment in extraction.
  
  If it seems that this commentary is made with the sort of confidence more appropriate to a statment of historical record than to a prediction of the future on a relatively complex matter, it is because this IS a matter of historical fact, or at the minimum extremely compelling historical analog. This very same prediction, based on very similar reasoning, was made over 200 years ago Thomas Malthus for other natural resources (it is from him that we have the term malthusian to describe irrationally bleak predictions). What both Mr. Malthus and Mr. Simmons have both appearently failed to grasp is the extraction and consumption of natural resources do not take place in a vaccuum; the aggregate demand for a resource will dramatically effect the extent of the efforts made to extract it (and hence it's supply) and the degree of effort required to extract it (and hence it's price) will just as, or perhaps more, greatly effect the aggregate demand for it. It is not arrogant to correctly account for the effect of the human race's considerable creative talents at both finding more of anything and finding alternatives to anything, on the contrary, it is the height of arrogance for any man, irrespective of the extent of his research, to presume to know what the human race has not yet discovered.
  
  
• Matthew Simmons is credible
  By A1E1QH9DE5HTOP on 2005-05-31
  There have been many people that have warned of peak oil. But none, in my opinion, as credible as Matthew Simmons. For one thing, he has worked close to the oil & gas business, so he knows something about it. Secondly, he has advised leaders and worked with industry experts. In other words he should be listened to and believed. I have not received the book yet, but I can confidently give a review because I have listened to his speeches and read some of his white papers. So I have a very good idea what will be in the book. This material has changed my way of thinking. I try to no longer buy materials made from oil (which is almost everything) except the things that are needed to survive (food, gas for car..ect..) I think conservation will help us solve this problem (or at the least prolong the pain) I highly recommend you listen to Matthew Simmons. There is lots of stuff on the net about him and his writings. It's time to turn the lights on and see the problems we face.
  
  
• In regard to the damn lies review
  By AJKO0B2F9ONM7 on 2005-06-20
  The short review by the person mentions that there is plenty of oil left in the ground. I encourage the reviewer and the reader to understand the implications of peak oil by going to one of the various sites that go into detail regarding Hubbert's Peak.
  
  The reviewer mentioned that there is plenty of oil to be found in tar sands and shale deposits. What he fails to mention is a simple equation of EI vs ER -- or energy invested vs energy returned. Oil coming out of Texas or Arabia at the end of WWII had a return of over 60 to 1. The tar sands are returning something like 3 or 4 to 1 with required huge investments of fresh water that is contaminated as well as large amounts of natural gas to heat the water to process the tar sands. Natural gas depositis in North America are rapidly declining as well. Shale and tar will not be our salvation when it comes to energy.
  
  There very well may be a day -- perhaps in the near future -- where there is a technological breakthrough that will allow such deposits to be successfully developed so as to actually make a dent in world demand but I serioulsy doubt it. Regardless of peoples political slants on issues it is very uncomfortable trying to imagine a world moving past peak. It can REALLY ruin your day. All the more reason to pick up a copy and be informed about something your elected officials are trying their hardest to keep you in the dark.
  
  
• This is a very important book
  By A34Z1HJ8UAQTU2 on 2005-06-16
  Simmons' thesis is that Saudi Arabia's reserves and ability to produce current volumes may be on the point of collapse and as a result potentially the world economy. This is a very important book. The world depends upon Saudi oil to power the world economy, but the reserves and production potential that everyone assumes exist, may not.
  
  There are 600 million cars in the world and 6.5 billion people-so, 5.9 billion people want a car.
  
  World oil market is 82.5 million BOPD with 30 million BOPD from OPEC. IEA estimates 4Q05 oil demand at 86.4 million BOPD or an estimated increase of nearly 4 million BOPD by year end 2005. How will this increase in demand be satisfied?
  
  Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the world with current estimated monthly production of 9.2 million BOPD. The world has looked to Saudi Arabia to be the "swing" producer for several decades. The Saudis have invested capital to drill wells and install production infrastructure for which they receive no immediate return to maintain their "swing" producer status. The conventional wisdom is that the Saudi's currently have peak capacity of 10.5 million BOPD. The Saudi government stopped providing production volumes by field in 1982 so it is impossible for outside observers to estimate Saudi production potential or production capacity. If the Saudi's increase their daily production volumes by 1.3 million BOPD, where will the remaining 2.7 million BOPD come from to meet year end 2005 demand?
  
  In 1979 Saudi Arabia announced total reserves of 150 billion BO. Also in 1979 they stopped reporting remaining reserves by producing field. By 1988 the Saudi's announced their reserves had increased to 260 billion BO with no significant announced field discoveries. Since 1988 they have produced about 46 billion BO, but still maintain they have remaining reserves of 260 billion BO. It's very difficult to believe that after producing 46 billion BO the remaining reserves have stayed the same-especially since there have been no known major field discoveries.
  
  This is where Simmons comes into the debate.
  
  
  
• Welcome to the desert of the real
  By AQ6G6X8FARK8W on 2005-06-26
  Matthew Simmons, against expectations for someone with his socio-economic background, has broken ranks with the Peak Oil deniers in this well researched survey of the one oil province towards which all eyes have turned: Saudi Arabia. More so than in other recent Peak Oil books, Simmons shows how the oil industry has run out of tricks for finding new oil fields and squeezing the last barrels out of the old ones, despite the wishful thinking to the contrary coming from some economists and other deskbound "energy analysts" who have never touched an oil rig in their lives.
  
  I would fault the book for two things, however, though I allow that Simmons lacks scientific knowledge beyond geology: One, Simmons doesn't discuss the thermodynamic aspects of the oil shortage, which limit the net energy we can extract from tertiary recovery and from nonconventional resources like tar sands and oil shale. And two, Simmons doesn't seem to understand how badly humans have overshot the planet's carrying capacity thanks to oil, though he does appreciate the danger an overpopulated Saudi Arabia faces from a shortage of the natural gas it needs to desalinate water and keep the electricity online. As much as Simmons discusses a livable "Plan B" that preserves civilization, I haven't seen enough evidence that humans will act rationally in an era of declining energy supplies.
  
  
• important warning about declining oil supplies
  By A7VD6RP98IT0G on 2006-04-04
  Twilight in the Desert, by Matthew Simmons, is a dense yet important tome about the evidence behind various claims about the global supply of petroleum.
  
  Though I can't say I especially enjoyed reading the book, I learned much. The key points seem to be that the production of oil is much more complex than we might guess and that there is not as much recoverable oil in the ground as many people estimate.
  
  Simmons starts with a brief history of Saudi Arabia, of the Saudi Aramco Company, and of the industrialized production of oil in the country. He discusses the secrecy about the current oil resources in Saudi Arabia and the difficulty in making estimates even about daily oil production.
  
  Before reading this book, I had naively assumed that oil just came up when you sunk a well into the earth. The reality, though, is that the pumping of oil from the ground is complicated by a host of factors. Simmons explains in detail several difficulties including:
  
  -declining reservoir pressure as an oil field ages
  -the emergence of a secondary gas cap
  -corrosion in the pipes and equipment from water injection
  -increasing water mixed around the oil and mixed with the oil
  -unpredictable behavior of this water
  -low productivity of later wells in an oil field
  
  Simmons then goes on to explain that the major oil fields in Saudi Arabia have already peaked in their production. This is a bit of a controversial claim, so Simmons reinforces the assertion with copious data. The reader becomes well familiar with Ghawar, the largest oil field in the world, and also Abqaiq, Safaniya, and Berri, the next-largest oil fields in Saudi Arabia.
  
  Simmons also discusses other oil fields in Saudi Arabia as well as major oil fields throughout the world. Given the importance of petroleum in our daily lives, it is important that we are familiar with the Daqing field of China, the Samotlor field of Russia, Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, and Cantarell in Mexico's Bay of Campache. After learning about these fields and others, I will read energy news with more understanding of the geography of oil.
  
  Simmons ends with reasonable predictions about the future price of oil (much higher than today), and admonishes us to think deeply about conservation and alternative energy.
  
  Throughout the book, Simmons explains the sources of his information and does a good job at providing evidence for his claims. In summary, I found this book to be dense, but fascinating and important.
  
  
• Thought-Provoking Reality Check
  By AX0GYJ92MNI6L on 2005-06-18
  In his Preface to "Twilight in the Desert," author Matthew R. Simmons explains that his book tells "a story about Saudi Arabia's oil that differs sharply from the official Saudi version.... that Saudi Arabian production is at or very near its peak sustainable volume....and is likely to go into decline in the very foreseeable future." These statements, which the author bases on his three decades in the oil industry and countless interviews, should get the attention of EVERYONE -- inside and outside the oil industry. This is the wakeup call for all of us -- from government officials to economists to consumers. This well-written, thoroughly researched and highly accessible book raises important questions that all of us need to take seriously.
  
  
  
• Wasn't Sure What To Expect-Technical Report
  By AW09QAI0YJRFQ on 2005-11-26
  I was intrigued by the title of the book and some of the other reviews that I read, since I am interested in the Middle East and decided to purchase the book. The very beginning of the book was interesting it presented a quick history of Saudia Arabia and some of the players. To a non technical scientific person (like myself) you will be completely overwhelmed by the facts presented in this book. Seems Saudi Arabia has had the same proven reserves the past 20 years or so in spite of pumping billions of barrels of oil the past few decades. The oil fields make for some sort of ageless wonder, I guess. This makes for a very interesting point, how are reserves depleted and how accurate are they reported. That is the main focus of the book, the reporting of reserves and a history on the giant fields and secondary fields. The book was way too techincal for me but nevertheless was interesting. I had no idea of "giant oil fields", like to the tune of 173 miles long, now that is big. Sooner or later this real cheap oil will run out, it has to. Unless this subject real interests you and you are prepared for all the stats, check this book out in the bookstore. The book reads like a technical report, plain and simple.
  
  
• Anatomy of Saudi oil fields
  By A180TZ6CUVED7Z on 2005-08-15
  Many books have been published on the possibility of an impending oil crisis, but this one looks at the global oil scenario with specific focus on Saudi Arabia, the world's largest "swing" producer. The once unnoticed backward desert kingdom fragmented by infighting among several tribal warlords suddenly emerges as the world's focal point in the second half of the last century, thanks to the discovery of the giant and super giant oil fields. The first chapter of the book is a brief outline of this historic transformation under the leadership of king Abdul Aziz ibn Saud. The strategic importance of this kingdom on the global energy map was understood well by the "seven sisters" and President FD Roosevelt was quick to establish a politically important relationship with the Saudi monarch. Oil it seemed was everywhere in this kingdom, and soon the world's most important oil company Aramco was born. Owned by foreign shareholders, this company does not lose much time to pump out the world's best crude oil in large quantities with a view to maximise shareholder returns in the short run. When the regional political scenario changed in the 1970's with the Arab-Israeli conflict, Saudi Arabia nationalises Aramco and renames it as Saudi Aramco. The story thus far is well known. What happens next is the core of the book. The secrecy of the oil reserves and field wise production figures, the myth of abundant unexploited reserves and the hypothesis that Saudi Arabia is running out of oil, and fast, is a interesting read.
  
  The book gives an excellent in-dept description of oil exploration and production. For a lay reader with no formal knowledge the subject, the information is highly valuable to get a deep insight into the subject and appreciate how and why the world's largest oil fields in Saudi Arabia have matured and would soon go dry. In the absence of direct information from Saudi Aramco, the author has relied heavily on and quoted extensively from over 200 technical papers published by company officials at SPE. The evidence to test the hypothesis is circumstantial but abundant in line with the proverbial " ..the dog that did not bark".
  
  The book lists estimated production figures from the largest of the Saudi oil fields namely Ghawar, Safania, Abqaiq, Berri and Zuluf. While these five fields account for the kingdom's four fifth of oil production, Ghawar, the king of all kings accounts for over half of the total. At about 8 to 10 million barrels per day, the kingdom is the world's largest "swing producer" capable of opening or closing its taps whenever there is an abnormal rise or fall in global oil prices. Saudi Arabia is today the undisputed leader in the OPEC. The Saudi officials have periodically increased the estimates of proven reserves and claim to have the ability to increase oil production up to 25 million barrels per day if needed, within a decade, and sustain it for over 50 years. This book is a well researched attempt to investigate this claim and prove it as highly misleading and practically impossible.
  
  The giant and super giants have been producing and in fact over producing in the last five years, if we go by the evidence in the book. There are significant pressure drops due to "rate sensitivity" of the oil wells and the "water cut" has substantially increased. The infrastructure including Gas Oil Separation Plants and water pumping facilities are inadequate to scale up production. The Gas Oil Ratio seems to have gone up and Saudi officials who once flared all the gas are now viewing its as a valuable commodity for sale as well as for local energy needs.
  
  My understanding of the upstream oil industry has certainly improved after reading this book. However the topic could have been easily discussed in half the number of pages. What disappointed me was that there is very little discussion in just one chapter at the end of the book on the possibility of the coming oil shock and implications for the world economy.
  
  While this book looks at the supply side of the problem I recommend "Addicted to Oil : America's Relentless Drive for Energy Security" by Ian Rutledge to understand the problem from the demand side under tight supply constraints.
  
  
• Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
  By A2NTPZZ5FS19Q on 2005-06-17
  Simmons is a delusional wacko. Next thing we'll hear is that there really are little green men from Mars. Only the most gullible would believe this nonsense.
  
  The world is awash in oil. The only thing that has changed is that all the cheap oil is gone. We may have to spend more to find it, extract it and refine it, but that's a normal progression. What about the oil sands? More reserves in Canada than all of OPEC combined. And then we have the oil shales, the heavy oil deposits in Ven, etc etc. And then we have vast reserves of coal and natural gas, all of which can be readily used as fuel.
  
  Use your brain. Ignore this blantant nonsense.
  
  
• Absolutely First Rate
  By A2W81H1D8YBE8T on 2005-08-06
  I've heard Matthew Simmons speak about peak-oil several times in radio interviews and conferences. He's always extremely well prepared, to the point, logical, and fact-based in his presentations. And he does not vary from that excellent style in this book. It is full of facts and he also takes a little time up front to put Saudi oil into an historical perspective.
  
  The remainder of the book is absolutely solid with facts, an open rational about what the facts mean and what logical projections are reasonable based on the data. His honesty and candidness is so refreshing that the book is hard to put down.
  
  Basically, much of the information supplied in this book can be used to understand the oil business in general, and most of the issues affecting Saudi oil is applicable to oil around the world. Anyone who wants to know about the linch-pin of the world's oil supply would be missing a key piece of the equation without reading Simmon's book.
  
  
• Twilight in the Desert
  By A20NX2UUA1SYU0 on 2005-08-06
  As a former dean of engineering, I think of myself as a member of the energy cognoscente. Simmons is clear, correct and charming in the analysis of the world and midease oil constraints. But he is too optimistic -- I think the world is headed for chaos.
  
  
• Outstanding
  By A1T6OW2T56D9UL on 2005-11-12
  This is an outstanding contribution to the debate about global energy supply. Whilst there are some minor quibbles about the technicalities, the fundamental argument is sound, namely, global reserves of conventional oil have been (and continue to be) seriously over estimated because those countries holding the reserves are incentivised to over estimate. I find the glib criticism of some other reviewers complacent - particularly those with a (no more than) passing knowledge of economics.
  
  The critics basic argument is along the lines of: so what if the Saudi oil reserves are much lower than estimated, market forces will ensure that any scarcity is reflected in the oil price which in turn will reduce demand and draw new oil deposits and oil substitutes into production, thus bringing the system back to equilibrium. Of course this argument is correct. Unfortunately, it completely misses the point. The point being that the market price of oil is not currentlty reflecting this scarcity. This has two consequences. First, the oil price today and the oil forward price is too low. After all, the market can only work with the information it has and if this information is fundamentally flawed it will send the wrong price signals. This is turn means that other energy sources are not currently being developed to replace cheap oil because the current price is not reflecting the true situation. In other words, we are squandering the cheap legacy we have on low value uses (gas guzzling four wheel drives spring to mind) rather than using it in higher value uses (ie. the creation of alternative energy supplies). Second, given that we have yet to find any source of energy that comes close to the quality of conventional crude oil in terms of energy return on energy invested (partly because we have failed to invest given the wrong information in the oil price) we will have to make a much more rapid and painful adjustment when the truth emerges and the oil price reflects reality.
  
  The upshot of all this is that we might have to get used to living with much higher energy production costs (and hence much higher prices) much sooner than expected ($100 per barrel minimum post 2010?). Even worse, we may have squandered so much high quality energy in low value uses over the last 30 years that we are now incapable of creating a replacement energy infrastructure that can support anything like the lifestyle we have become used to. Just maybe we have gone beyond the point of no return. Life will go on - but not as we know it.
  
  
  
  
  
• Hated to read This BUT....
  By A39NE50SNEDLEN on 2005-11-16
  I work in the oil industry, and this book is hard to put down. What is missing from Simmons analysis can never be found - the true reserve picture and depletion picture for these major mideast fields. Those figures will never come out until the depletion is apparent to anyone willing to look at their numbers - the banks granting them loans and the suspect governments themselves cannot allow their assumptions to be questioned. This is a valiant attempt to take the scraps available and make some sense of them. I found more numbers about fields and depletion rates in this book than in anything else I have read concerning this issue.
  
  Whether we are at "peak Oil" or approaching it in 20 years is not nearly as important as what we are leaving the next generation with - and Simmons outlines this in a systematic way by simply letting the numbers tell their tale.
  
  I sent this one on to my own children. They will have to live with the decisions or lack of decisions that we make today. I would recommend this for anyone who has ever wondered about "Peak Oil", because the author is in his element and drags us along quite easily, even if we really do not want to go...
  
  
  
  
  
  
• The Twilight of Saudi Oil is Fast Approaching
  By A3H86VWLHHG96C on 2005-08-07
  Almost everyone will agree that oil is a nonrenewable resource. I say almost because there is a small clique that believes that petroleum will indefinitely ooze up from the earth's core, but that's another matter. In the known world there are a finite number of proven reserves, and Saudi Arabia is believed to possess the largest number of these reserves - some 250 billion barrels or a quarter of the world's total. And, to their credit, the Saudis have always been very reliable and responsible producers: when there were global shortages, they could always be counted on to alleviate the shortages by producing more oil.
  
  Therein lies the problem according to Matthew Simmons, investment banker and oil industry analyst. In his new book,"Twilight in the Desert," he explains why increasing production to avert supply disruptions diminishes the reserves' long-term productive capacity. To keep up with soaring demand, the Saudis have been using a variety of methods the increase well pressure - such as pumping water into wells. This boosts production temporarily, but it leaves far more of the oil unrecoverable than if it were extracted at a steady and lower rate.
  
  The fact that the Saudis are using these methods on all of their seven largest fields indicates that their production is peaking or beyond the peak - a claim which they deny. Truth be told, most of the major Saudi fields (Ghawar, Safaniya, Abquaiq, Berri, Zuluf, and Marjan) were developed 40 to 50 years ago, and no sizeable field has been discovered since 1967 (Hatwah). In 1988, the Saudis claimed that they still had 250 billion barrels in reserve and now - 50 billion barrels later - they still claim to have 250 billion barrels in reserve. Something is amiss. True, calculating reserves is an inexact science, but what troubles Simmons is that the Saudis never allow third party verification.
  
  The world's petroleum requirement in 2001 was 77 million barrels per day, by 2025 it will be 121 million barrels a day, a net increase of 44 million barrels a day. Of this increase, the Saudis are projected to supply one-fourth, roughly 12 million more barrels per day than they are producting now. Simmons sees the chances of this happening as very slim, since 90 percent of all the oil Saudi Arabia has ever produced came from the seven giant fields. These fields are now mature and diminishing after have been injected with massive amounts of water over the decades.
  
  Unfortunately, America's entire energy strategy is based on the Saudis meeting their projections in the years ahead. Simmon's view is a minority view, but it it is based on technical papers available from the online library of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. He makes a convincing argument that the future costs of securing oil will increase significantly. Not only the costs of more intensive recovery efforts, but also costs associated with military operations to secure resources and the costs of the ecological degradation of burning 77 million barrels of oil per day. This book is an important addition to the growing chorus of voices calling for energy conservation and the urgent need to find alternative sources of energy.
  
  
• Did you know that the Saudi government is in debt? Me either until I read this book!
  By A2L9028WTVFL1I on 2006-12-07
  1.) I think you will glean far more timely knowledge by reading this book rather than the Pulitzer prize winning `The Prize : The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power' written by Daniel Yergin. However, at the time I am sitting down to write Twilight in the Desert's review - The Prize had 112 reviews and a 4 1/2 star average. I read The Prize. My suggestion would be to buy the DVD. This book is a spine tingler!
  
  2.) This book will give you a Ph.D. in Saudi Arabian oil discovery & production. You will learn that oil was first discovered in the 1940's. You will discover that, contrary to what you might assume, oil is not ubiquitous; instead, being present only in a small percentage of Saudi Arabian land mass. Nowhere on Earth has more money been invested nor more state-of-the-art subterranean mapping technology been applied than in the ongoing search for oil on the Arabian peninsula. And yet, the last noteworthy oil discovery took place over 40 years ago! Let there be no question that Saudi Arabia's Northeastern territory represents the highest concentration of hydrocarbons discovered to date.
  
  3.) You'll learn the name of the each oil field (the World over) that qualified as being "super giant." This categorization implies that the reservoir was (or is) capable of sustained production of at least 500,000 barrels of crude per day. You'll discover that finding a super giant does not happen every day. You'll discover that a country is fabulously fortunate to discover a (1) super giant within its territory. And then you'll appreciate the fact that (3) super giant oil reservoirs have been found to reside inside Saudi Arabian territory. The king of king super giant of super giant is a Saudi oil reservoir named Ghawar. Ghawar produces 4,500,000 barrels of crude oil a day. The king of all offshore oil fields named Safaniya, which produces 1,500,000 barrels a day. And the king of king in terms of quality (light sweet) and behavior(super K zones) of any oil field on Earth, they have Abqaiq. Abqaiq produces over 2,000,000 barrels per day
  
  4.) History has showed a very clear correlation between super giant oil reservoirs. At first they require very little work or technology to produce enormous quantities of crude oil. After they mature, 15-20 years typically, they all require "water-injection" wells to maintain high reservoir pressure. As you can imagine, the crude oil produced begins to have higher and high percentages of water - know in the industry as "water-cut." This requires billions of dollars of capital investment to construct "oil & gas separation complexes." Production costs start infinitesimally small while inversely natural reservoir pressure start incredibly high. As time marches forward these migrate in opposite directions. The production cost of a barrel of crude in Saudi Arabia was literally less than a dollar 4 decades ago, and now it is likely more than $20 and growing.
  
  5.) Finally, you'll learn how Aramco, when run by (7) US oil companies had to fully disclose proper reservoir estimates and actual production numbers. At the handoff between US to Saudi ownership - the Saudis' grossly inflated the carefully calculated reservoir estimates. In part this was due to national pride and an honest belief they'd continue finding more super giants. This is key! At this point in history, reporting oil reserve estimates became totally worthless. In the following decades Saudi Arabia has continued to inflate this estimate while not making a new discovery in (4) decades!
  
  6.) In 2006, a barrel of oil cost as much as $78 - and Gasoline was more than $3. The amount of crude produced every day is only about 1 million barrels more than is absolutely needed. It is this (1) million barrel daily cushion that you will begin to focus on. Ghawar, Safaniya, & Abqaiq have been producing 4.5M, 2.5M, & 2M every day for over 40 years. The Saudi water-cut is said to be 30% and rising. The Saudis are in billions of dollars of debt due to the massive oil water separation complex they had to construct to combat the water-cut. The amounts of fluids being pumped inside Saudi Arabia in a day are titanic. Is the World ready for these ultra-mature fields to lose 50% of their daily production? What about 25%? The answer is "NO!"
  
  7.) I'm not an environmentalist. I'm a regular guy. However, I genuinely enjoyed watching a DVD titled "Who killed the Electric Car." The DVD pushed all the right buttons and made me actually morn the loss. If you see it at your video store - you might want to take a look.
  
  
  
• And yet...
  By A371T6MGG96R3V on 2005-07-20
  Interesting book but I will not comment on it as many have done so better than I could. However, I offer you the following:
  
  Here is a PDF overview of the book:
  http://www.cera.com/news/details/1,2318,7453,00.html
  
  Some related reports
  Oil & Liquids Capacity to Outstrip Demand Until At Least 2010
  http://www.cera.com/news/details/1,2318,7453,00.html
  
  Asian Oil Demand is Rapidly Declining (July 14/2005 report):
  http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050714-thu.html#anchor2
  
  Still does not hurt to recycle and buy efficient vehicles...
  
  
• Reveals both US Senate and Oil Executive Dishonesty
  By A1S8AJIUIO6M9K on 2006-03-15
  This book, does, as at least one reviewer notes, "drag on," but it does so because it is a meticulously presented case, a case that would stand up in Court, on the death of Saudi Arabia and its oil reserves.
  
  The book concludes with an Appendix C, "The 1974 and 1979 Senate Hearings," that I believe should be used to impeach, retrospectively, the Senators then responsible for Energy oversight. The documented public record is quite clear, and the Senate and media and banking and industry cover-ups are also quite clear and carefully documented: all of the Brahmins, including Dick Cheney, knew in 1974 and then again in 1979, that Peak Oil had been hit and we were on a downhill slope. For purely short-term political and profiteering motives, the oil industry and the U.S. Senators responsible for energy oversight, conspired to keep silent. This is, in a word, treason.
  
  Exxon's CEO today, on the basis of this book, is either stupid, mis-informed, or a world-class criminal. I don't think he is stupid. I do think he is mis-informed. I also think that if he does not come to grips with reality soon, he will be proven to be a world-class criminal before 2008. The other energy CEOs, with British Petroleum a possible exception, are clearly duplicitous and in my own mind, display behavior that demands a nationalization of the energy industry, and a draconian criminalization of information withholding on this extraordinarily vital aspect of national security and prosperity.
  
  This book has a world class bibliography, a world class index, and is, alone, sufficient to indict the energy company CEOs for high crimes against the Nation and the rest of the world.
  
  For the reviewer upset that the author did not offer alternatives, I would make two points: 1) that is not the point of the book, it is about revealing the decrepitude of Saudi Arabia and the dishonesty of both the U.S. Senate and the oil industry executives in America; and 2) go to the two WIRED magazine articles, the one on doubling electrical output by creating a two-way system and localizing production; the other on the price points at which oil makes all other energy alternatives cheaper.
  
  For those who want alternative views:
  
  on Oil and 9-11: Michael Ruppert, Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil
  
  on Oil and Other Converging Catastrophes: James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
  
  on Saudi Arabian and US corruption, Robert Baer, See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism and Sleeping with the Devil: How Washington Sold Our Soul for Saudi Crude
  
  on US Political Incompetence and Corruption, Peter Peterson, Running on Empty: How the Democratic and Republican Parties Are Bankrupting Our Future and What Americans Can Do About It William Greider, Who Will Tell The People? : The Betrayal Of American Democracy and Tom Coburn, Breach of Trust: How Washington Turns Outsiders Into Insiders as well as The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track (Institutions of American Democracy).
  
  See my 1000+ other books. This book is the tip of the spear that just went into the heart of the CEO of Exxon and his pals, all of whom will be held accountable by the American people, as will the corrupt politicians that have sold out to Wall Street and to bribery from lobbyists. We are in for a very rude and rough 20 years.
  
  
• Expert Analysis of the Impending Saudi Oil Slowdown
  By A1NATT3PN24QWY on 2006-03-22
  Author and leading oil expert Matthew R. Simmons departs from other books of the oil doom-and-gloom genre, which usually review peak production formulas, extend them to global oil reserves and posit an inevitable decline. Global oil production, they all warn, must begin to diminish "sooner or later." While indisputably true, such homilies overlook the core question: when? When will the decline actually begin - now or 50 years from now? (As John Maynard Keynes put it darkly, "In the long run, we're all dead.") Taking quite a different tact, Simmons ignores the bit players and focuses on Saudi Arabia, the world's petroleum giant. He links historical data with solid information and graphs on oil reserves and production, and adds his informed perspective on how the oil business really works. No wonder the house of Saud reportedly spent an entire year priming its public relations network to defuse this book's thesis. By sticking to facts and avoiding prognostication, Simmons makes a cogent case that it's time for the world to start working on "Plan B," that is, what to do once Saudi production declines. We recommend this book to all business readers. As the lifeblood of the global economy, oil is everyone's business.
  
  
• An excellent read for a layman
  By A17FUROEK4F8T7 on 2005-06-17
  I am not knowledgeable about the oil industry but I found Matt Simmons' book extremely readable. His research process and the reaction of pundits to his tenaciousness was fascinating. His overview punctures my assumption that the oil business is transparent and that investors can clearly see its future. I hope that our world accepts the important lesson of his book and starts to conserve more oil.
  
  
• Disappointed
  By A1DDLEKTZT8LE0 on 2005-10-29
  I was so looking forward to this book hoping to get a true insight of the oil industry, but unfortunately just came away disappointed.
  
  All I got from Mr. Simmons is that:
  
  The Saudis are liars...the Saudis rely on 5 or 6 fields for all their oil...the Saudis can produce this oil at obscene low prices...The Saudis will run out of oil...
  
  So what Mr. Simmons!! Isn't that the primary reason other production hasn't come on line?
  
  How many thousands of oil wells have been shut down because they couldn't hope to profit with oil at $1.00, $2.00, $10.00, $20.00 or even $30.00 a barrel with all this cheaper oil on line?
  
  How many thousands of these oil wells will come back on line with $60.00 barrel oil? How much oil can be produced from oil sands at $60.00? How about oil shale? No where does Mr. Simmons address these issues, why??
  
  It seems that Mr. Simmons has sold out to the end of the world crowd.
  
  
  
  
• Banker tortures translation of technical papers
  By A1HHVKNPNURV63 on 2005-11-19
  Mr. Simmons investigation of the Saudi hydrocarbon reserve issue is warranted and desirable. His ability to rewrite others' conclusions into understandable terms is far from effortless. He has a firm grasp of extending the number of pages within his book by prolonged repetition.
  
  If you cross out every last sentence in every paragraph, this is where Mr. Simmons has added some far fetched, irrelevant, or completely contradicting conclusion, and if you can concentrate on the poorly translated technical issues within the body of the paragraph you may be pleased with the information you have gained. But then you may wonder if you couldn't have received the same information in 50 pages or less.
  
  
• SAUDI-ARABIA, JIHAD AND BIG OIL...
  By A3AVCLCKCJICJK on 2005-06-22
  TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT: THE COMING SAUDI OIL SHOCK AND THE WORLD ECONOMY is probably one of the most important volumes written on the Economics of Oil in the Middle East and its' effects upon the politics,culture, and religion of this region. Author Matthew Simmons, an acknowledged expert on the role of Big Oil in the world, with emphasis on the Middle East, reveals a new and alarming danger facing every person living in an industrialized, technological society - the spectre of immense cataclysmic oil shortages in the very near future. Americans have grown accustomed to "filling up" their gas tanks on a regular, low-cost basis for decades now. The auto industry has produced gas-guzzling vehicles for every taste and want since the end of the Second World War. In fact, it is something we take for granted. Gasoline will always be there for us! The Middle East, the greatest depository of crude oil, will always have ample supplies to serve us. Now Mr. Simmons enlightens us by advising that those crude deposits in Saudi-Arabia ( the largest oil producer in the world)are dwindling. In fact, according to his fine research, oil will peak over the next year or so. This means that the supply willl not be there. Combine this scenario with a rapidly-growing Islamic fundamentalism throughout the Middle East, Anti-American rhetoric in the main cities of Islam as the result of Abu Ghraib and the entire U.S. military occupation of Moslem lands and you have a tinderbox ready to explode. Already Insurgents are bombing oil installations in Iraq and Saudi-Arabia and kidnaping Oil workers. Al-Qaida has spread its' tentacles into every Moslem State, fomenting more violence and instability. This will only push the price of Crude Oil even higher. $60 Oil is here. $100 Oil is around the corner.What makes it difficult to confront this problem of oil depletion is the character of Islamic society itself. Saudi-Arabia has not changed very much since the 19th century. Ultra-Conservative Moslem Clerics still make the final decisions as to how their people will live and work. Until democracy is brought into this region in a way that makes sense, conditions will remain the same. As the author of a new book on the Middle East Crisis myself, called: JIHAD: THE MAHDI REBELLION IN THE SUDAN, I can well understand how the force of Islamic Fundamentalism will affect the economics of oil- Islam's greatest prize! My thesis is that the U.S. is following in the same footsteps as the British a century ago when they sent military forces into Egypt and the Sudan to establish law and order and protect their commercial interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, including their colonies in East and South Africa and their dominions in Asia. This was done through the control of the man conduit - the Suez Canal. Today we Americans are in that same region to protect our industrial life-line - OIL!!! Our Government will do almost anything to assure us of friendly and stable Governments in the Middle East whereby we can do business. This is the reason why we are in Iraq. Mr. Simmons has opened up a "Pandora's Box." The abrupt decline of oil to almost every industrialized and industrializing nation in the world including: United States, the European Bloc, Japan, India and China will trigger economic, political, cultural and even religious Armageddons at the start of the 21st century. It is Mr. Simmons' greatest fear that terrorists and radicals will seize on this imminent decline to create more instability and violence. It will, indeed be a "Shock to the entire world." Simmons' book, TWILIGHT IN THE DESERT: THE COMING SAUDI OIL SHOCK AND THE WORLD ECONOMY is MUST reading for everyone. - Murray S. Fradin, author of: JIHAD: THE MAHDI REBELLION IN THE SUDAN.
  
  

• Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak
• The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel
• The Prize : The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power
• The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
• The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World