Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market Reviews

• Great Book

  
  By A2WV5ZZAQGCS8F on 2005-01-07
  Jim Rogers wrote a very easy to read book.
  
  If you are looking for hot tips as to what commodity to invest in do not waste your money buying this book. He does not offer any "hot" tips. I personally believe if any one person had "hot" tips to make tons of money, why would they tell other people? It does not make sense. Anyhow this book does not have any formulas, and actually the author points out that most technical analysis traders loose money, it is the people who write the book on technical analysis that make money.
  
  The book however is well written, and makes basic arguements based on facts, namely suppy and demand. Jim Rogers as you can tell from his book is a fundamentalist. His arguements are clear and concise, and make perfect sense. You will not be disappointed in this book, and even if you are technical trader, you could still use many concepts in this book to help with your trading, or if you just want some information on the fundamental side.
  
  This is one of the best books I have bought in a long time. It will sit with my arsenal of other books, so that I can use this to help make better judgements into what commodities to invest into.
  
  He also makes some nice parallels with the stock market and commodities market.
  
  You will not be disappointed, and the price is not bad at all.
  
  
  
  

• Self serving to an extent

  
  By A18I8EYPJK3XMA on 2005-01-29
  Rogers wrote this book because he runs a commodies index and a fund to go with it. The book is poorly disguised advertising. With that said I believe Rogers is sincere in his beliefs. However, as usual there are several caveats. First, he quotes papers and research showing that investing in commodies in the past has been less risky and had better returns than equities or bonds. All of this research however ignores institutional risk associated with commodity investing. The fees are high, the market is sometimes manipulated, the investor virtually has to use a full service brokerage firm, and even Roger's mutual fund is available only through a broker and has high surrender charges. Second, although many money handlers like Rogers end up rich, it is almost never pointed out that the vast majority of their money is not made by their own fantastic investing but by charging high fees to their investors. Look at the fees on the Rogers fund. Good God. Third, the various commodity indexes that are out there are new. Gibson, in his book on asset allocation, took the Goldman Sachs index back to the good old days of the seventies not bothering to point out that the GMCI only dates back to 1992 and so this was essentially backtesting - a popular hobby even though there is much evidence to indicate this is not the way to go. There are good reasons to believe that the commodity bull market of today will not repeat the golden years of the seventies even though it is real enough. None of this even touches the fact that the average investor should only have 5 - 10% of his money (at the most) in commodities. Either high minimums on the funds or huge front and back end fees will keep everyman out. Nevertheless, Rogers is correct in his assertion that learning about commodities will help any investor look at the world in a different way, and, in the long run, teaching the investor the basics of understanding commodities is the real contribution of this book. Those looking for a commodity investing how to book will have to keep looking. He is pushing commodities indexing.
  
  

• Commodity Warning

  
  By A1G78VAW8SQW4T on 2005-02-03
  As someone who opened a commodity account in 2003, I must warn people that its is *not* a myth that you have a rare chance of losing your shirt like the book states.
  Yes, One the one hand, commodities are simple, there are no accounting issues, neferoius managers, stock float issues, ponsei schemes etc..
  
  But they are VERY RISKY things to manage. Lets go through what occurs - you read the book, with no information on futures, you open a broker account, you buy a futures contract, typically for between $50,000-$100,000 worth of whatever. This is done on margin - you are being charged interest on the loan as long as you hold it!
  
  And - If you do not sell that contract before whats know as the 'last trading day' which varies from contract to contract you have to take delivery of say the 40,000 barrels of oil the contract is for! Fancy having that in your garden?
  
  If you buy a long dated contract, to help get around this, you will find that you there is usually little 'open interest' which basically means that there is not much of a market, sellers and buyers setting prices, and prices are not reflective of reality.
  
  Also, with any long dated contract, you will have to pay a premuim which differs from the 'spot' price, related to the feds cash interest rate. The further out you go, the more this premuim cost is, even if the market is liquid enough to absorb a longer dated contract. Say you bought a contract for Gold delivered 6 months out, Spot would be $400/Oz while the futures contract would add in this 'time' premuim - say $410/oz. So gold has to rise by OVER this amount before you break even.
  
  Obvoiusly, you are also on margin with the broker, so have to pay him interest on your debt during the time you are holding it!
  
  What you find is contracts are freqently rolled over, because of open interest reasons, which means that lots of people start selling well *before* 'last trading day', because they do not want delivery, and, as open interest starts to dry up on that contract, you too will have to move to the next month. You have to monitor your positions constantly and have a deep knowledge of that market to know exactly when datewise etc.. to roll over. For instance - You cannot 'get ill' with an online broker and not tell them that you do not want delivery, but would like to be rolled.
  
  There are so many ways to get stuffed, its not something Rodgers can cover in his book. Which is why the book points to his fund really.
  
  As you can see, its not exactly easy, worry free stuff. And then you have to know the market - every commodity market has supply and demand factors which relate to the economic/industrial climate, weather patterns, exchange rates etc...
  
  It's so fraught with risk - you really DO have to know whatyou are doing, that you will be using a full service broker if you have any sense, and you still have to stock lashings of research (your valuable time) up on the individual market for the commodity. Supply and demand determines price, and technical traders can be caught out by the fundementals, you have to have a knowledge of both and a feeling of where you think it may go.
  
  Its NO WAY like a choice between paper assets like stocks and bonds and raw materials. If you thought there was going to be a massive long run demand on a shrinking supply of commodity assets then, the stocks which own the such producing assets make more sense than the commodities.
  
  Jim Rodgers has some interesting ideas about the times we live in, and he may be correct about the market becoming like the 1970s for the 13 or so years of the 18 in his thoery we have left to run since the market crashed in 2000. But a commodity broker is not the way to go for someone who like to sleep easy at night. As I see the Fed tigthening lots of commodities are falling back. Come real interest rates, many 'bandwagons' like Gold will plummet.
  
  
  
  

• Interesting premise, less actionable for the small investor

  
  By A3J3G1KMQ18RP2 on 2005-01-16
  Topline in this book is commodities will outperform equities in the next 20 years, therefore jump in this bandwagon if you want to outperform the equity market.
  
  Style: He argues in the initial section as to why one should invest in commodities but provides limited guidelines on how to actually invest in them if you are small investor. The rest of the book is broken into individual commodities, e.g., oil, coffee, lead, gold, with an elongated appendix on each of the commodities. The outline for each chapter is Jim's personal experience, some high-level history of the commodity and then finally his prognostications on the future of the commodity.
  
  Key Takeaways:
  
  1. China is hot, India is not
  2. Gold is old, lead is hot
  3. Coffee is due for its sunshine soon
  4. Sugar is a better investment than oil near-term
  5. Start reading Commodity Research Bureau's Commodity Handbook to understand demand/supply dynamics.
  
  Conclusion: Please buy this book if you are bearish on the equities and want to outperform the S&P 500 index.
  
  

• Great insights from a world class investor

  
  By A3TZC56HY5BJAA on 2005-02-04
  I've been a fan of Jim Rogers for a long time. I've read his previous books (Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist) as well as numerous articles and stories about him (Worth Magazine, Fortune, Barrons, etc). This book did not disappoint.
  
  What I enjoy most about Rogers is the fact that's he's produced consistent results throughout his career. He made a fortune with George Soros in the 70's at the Quantum Fund (up 4,000% in the decade). He made huge calls about the crash of '87, the crash in the Nikkei, forecasts of emerging bull markets in Austria, Botswana, and numerous other countries. His move into commodities in 1998 was another great coup.
  
  No investor is going to be perfect. No one will get it right 100% of the time (he's been overly bearish on the US since at least the early 90's). But I believe Rogers core philosophies will get you much further than anything else you hear in the mainstream media and by the talking heads on TV. They haven't made fortunes in the market for the past 30 years.
  
  "Hot Commodities" is a good introductory guide to the world of commodity investing and more importantly, contrarian investing. Fortunes are made by thinking independently from the crowd, looking for opportunities that no one else sees and making sound, logical investment decisions. Rogers takes you down that thought process beautifully.
  
  I knocked a star off because he could have discussed options and other ways of buying commodities in more depth. Some may see the book as a giant ad for his own commodities fund. More balance would have been nice.
  
  All in all, some great insights from an investing legend.
  
  
• Book covers the why, but not the How
  By A2RDS7NGKB7BQH on 2005-01-22
  The title is somewhat misleading. The book doesn't cover any specific strategies on how to take advantage of the coming bull market in commodities. The author does a good job of explaining commodities and the present (next 10 years) case for their appreciation. He also describes commodities markets and contracts/futures but I was disappointed that there was no coverage of how an investor would invest in them using his bull market forecast. As mentioned by other reviewers, most commodities based investments are reasonably complex derivatives.
  
  To be fair, this isn't a get rich quick book or a book on how to make short term plays on commodities. This to me was attractive. I bought the book believing commodities, as the author suggests, should be at the very least an important asset class for any portfolio. I'm still looking for a way (other then to invest in the author's own mutual fund which isn't available everywhere) to actually execute such a strategy.
  
  
• Commodity Boom? We'll see.
  By A3D9FY9NP8DBXO on 2005-12-26
  Jim Rogers has written a book that is informative, yet disappointing, because investing in commodities is a frustrating endeavor. Mutual fund companies, in their appalling lack of foresight, have created funds that produce mediocre portfolios of bonds and equities by the thousands. Enough already! Why not come out with a few commodity funds? I'm sure they will after the boom is towards its final speculative blowoff. Rogers own "Raw Materials" fund, which he unabashedly promotes in the book, has a very high expense ratio and is embroiled in the scandal surrounding the broker, REFCO. The investors in this fund are currently unable to get their money back! In my humble opinion, the best and most inexpensive way to play a commodity bull market is to diversify into the gold ETF, energy ETF, gold mining stocks/funds, natural gas & oil producing and drilling stocks, timber REITS and other commodity producing companies.
  
  
  
• Interesting Read and even more interesting perspective
  By A1SJM5AUZS8TQQ on 2005-01-02
  I purchased this book after reading his article in Fortune Magazine. While Jim Rogers starts many sentances with "AND", the writing style is excellent and the topics are thought provoking.
  
  This book is a must read if you are bearish on the US economy. When you look around and begin to think that the US is becoming a second rate country and wonder what that means to your investment strategy in the 21st century, then this book is for you.
  
  
• Your Guide to Commodities
  By AMMFROG9H68RS on 2005-06-01
  The world-renowned "Adventure Capitalist" Jim Rogers takes the reader through a real adventure in this book. An excellent introduction to the world of commodity investing, most readers will find a plethora of useful and interesting information. A nice bonus is the handy appendix listing brief descriptions of commodities and commodity indexes. It makes the book worth keeping as a reference.
  
  Rogers does an excellent job presenting his reasons for a commodity bull market in the upcoming years and he presents various ways to profit from it - everything from picking the right stocks to investing in the commodities futures markets. He earns credibility by basing statements on his own observations as a commodity trader, unlike other books that use some egghead's mathematical projections as a premise.
  
  The later chapters go into detail over the most popular commodities (i.e. oil, gold, sugar, coffee). Here he presents interesting historical information and explains what factors drive the prices of these items. He also discusses the most recent news affecting supply and demand. After finishing those brief chapters, it definitely leaves the reader hungry for more on other commodities.
  
  Investor beware! While Jim does make a convincing case for a commodity bull market, do not be too hasty in making a move. I feel at times he is overly optimistic, especially when he touts his own Rogers Commodity Index fund. He also downplays the dangers involved in the volatile futures markets.
  
  Despite these cautions, Hot Commodities is an excellent read for staying informed of today's changing global market conditions. I recommend it to all investors.
  
  
  
• Summarized in a few sentences...
  By A1G62N7XLNAZ77 on 2007-02-04
  I can summarize this book in three sentences, saving everyone's money.
  
  1) China has a lot of people and those people need raw materials (commodities). I feel like the 214 page book would be about 100 pages if he would just make this one statement and move on.
  2) Commodities go in 17 year cycles and we still have awhile to go.
  3) Buy commodities because they are another media of investment that have proven to have good returns and diversify a portfolio. (Negative correlation to stock market.)
  
  If someone were to try to use this book to trade Futures they would have a very basic knowledge and most likely lose money. There are better books out there.
  
  
• Outstanding book from the world's greatest investor
  By A1R2KIG2KAKRW4 on 2005-01-09
  I have followed Jim Rogers for over ten years. Although I have learned from him through watching him on television, reading his articles, and reading his first two books over that time, I have always hoped that he would write a book solely on investing that would give other people the chance to learn how he approaches investment decisions. Hot Commodities is it! If there is one thing that I have learned since I have followed the financial markets, it is that there are tons of people on TV that SOUND like they know what they are talking about, but there are very few people who make investment predictions that consistently come true. Take my word, Jim Rogers is the person you should listen to if you want to make money in the financial markets. If you want hard data to back that up, just do some research on the Quantum Fund that he and George Soros ran in the 1970s. It went up 4000% in value in the 1970s when equities were going down! In addition to reading Hot Commodities and his other two books, check out his web site since he has numerous articles there. And also be sure to watch him every Saturday morning on FoxNews. The bottom line is that if you learn how he thinks, you will be able to make sound investment decisions for yourself for the rest of your life.
  
  
• Coffee Futures Reached Five Year Highs and Oil Spiked Today
  By A1K1JW1C5CUSUZ on 2005-02-24
  We are accustomed to reading headlines like the above in The Wall Street Journal and in the business sections of other publications. If you are like most people, you use the information to get a general sense of what future inflation might be . . . and go back to buying and selling stocks and bonds.
  
  Jim Rogers has a different suggestion for you. Learn enough about the commodity markets so that you can consider whether they offer an appropriate alternative for investing some of your funds. His book, Hot Commodities, is designed to help you achieve that goal.
  
  I found Hot Commodities to be an easy-to-understand introduction to the subject that will appeal most to those who know nothing. If you were alive during the commodity-driven inflation of the 1970s and 1980s, you will find this book to be a little too simple for you. But you will probably enjoy the book, nevertheless. Mr. Rogers has a straightforward, humble approach to his writing that will appeal to most.
  
  Some may avoid this book because they don't want to use the tremendous margin that is available with commodities. That's a mistake. Mr. Rogers is suggesting a plain vanilla index-fund approach to owning a portfolio of commodities over the long term with no trading and no financial leverage. His point: During a commodity up-cycle, many commodities will rise by ten-fold. Hitting most of the rise over a 10-18 year period will provide returns that exceed what bonds and stocks usually provide.
  
  In addition, he shows that commodities tend to be countercyclical to stock and bond returns so commodities can be a useful diversification for part of a portfolio. Interestingly, commodities have also been less volatile than stocks in the last 25 years or so.
  
  Mr. Rogers also gives you basic information in case you want to consider more adventuresome versions of what he recommends (don't do it!).
  
  The most interesting parts of the book are the ones where he explores the pivotal role that China and Brazil play in creating a commodities boom. He looks at economic growth in developing countries, oil, gold, lead, sugar and coffee in a little detail to give you a flavor of how to analyze supply and demand fundamentals for a given commodity.
  
  Personally, I would have found the book to be a lot more valuable if it had had more detailed analysis in it . . . and suggestions for how to do your own homework.
  
  But that's okay. I still learned from the book, and intend to consider doing some commodity index fund investing.
  
  I recommend this book to anyone who wants to use index fund investing to beat the pros.
  
  
• Great Book. I highly encourage you to purchase it.
  By A3DJ7X9PKFW332 on 2005-05-30
  I thoroughly enjoyed Jim Rogers's new book "Hot Commodities." Having read his two previous books, "Investment Biker" and "Adventure Capitalist," better prepared me to appreciate his newest book.
  
  If you are looking for technical analysis, this isn't the book for you. You best look elsewhere.
  
  From his two prior books, we know that Jim looks at the bigger picture. He always likes to be a contrarian and views opportunities from a different vistas. In this book, it's no different. He dispels the notion that commodities are any more risky than equities. After having accomplished that feat, he then goes on to describe a few of his favored commodities. He walks through his logic in his somewhat folksy style. He doesn't bore you with mountains of data and information. Instead, he shows you what he looks at and how he arrives at his conclusions. In essence, he teaches you how to fish.
  
  Now knowing how to fish, you can choose your own favorite commodities and begin researching those commodities. You'll note that most of his sources of information are readily accessible to the general population. He didn't rely on proprietary Bloomberg information. Instead, most came from common sources such as Barron's.
  
  Jim also tried to instill in the reader a fascination with commodities. Once you follow commodities more closely, you'll have a better appreciation for investing and following world events. When you have your cereal in the morning, how is the price of commodities affecting the profits of Kellogg? How does the weather in Florida affect the price of your orange juice, or developments in Brazil affecting the price of your cup of joe? How do various political and other developments affect commodities, and how do those changes in commodities affect us?
  
  I thoroughly enjoyed his latest book because a) it gave me his view on commodities and why he expects commodities to remain strong for an extended period, b) because it complemented his two previous books by showing us how international factors relate to commodities, and c) because his book will make me an overall better investor.
  
  Great book! I encourage you to purchase all Jim's books.
  
  
• Caveat Emptor
  By A3B123VTWKB9PG on 2006-02-07
  Before anyone else reads this book and decides that the case is strong enough to seek out how to invest in a commodities index fund, do a search on Google for "investors sue Jim Rogers." Investors in Rogers' fund (and I am one as well) may have lost an enormous amount of money due to the Refco debacle and Rogers' dealings with the Refco sleazebags. The CEO of Refco is now wearing an ankle bracelet and I don't mean the one for tennis. Just remember that this is the firm Rogers was thinking about selling his index fund to before you continue to laud his genius.
  
  
• Very little info on trading
  By A39HNNCUNF2K27 on 2005-01-07
  After reading Jim Rogers book I understood one thing: he has no intention to teach you anything but his fun retirement life stories.
  If you like to learn more about trading read Toby Crabel or Linda Rascke, visit Jeff Cooper but don't let millionairs fool you into thinking that they will teach you something you can make money with.
  
  
• Doesn't really tell you how to invest in commodities
  By AU4ZDB7EVHTNL on 2005-01-24
  This book basically discusses economic theory behing what drives commodity prices and spends a lot of time discussing why China will drive the prices of commodities in the future. There is hardly any discussion about investing techniques. I guess the author assumes that you will be hiring a broker. One thing I don't understand is how the author tries to discredit the common belief that commodity trading is risky, yet he doesn't discuss why this is a myth. If this book was titled "understanding commodities" instead of "how anyone can invest profitably" I would not have a problem with is book. If you are a beginner who wants to do your own trading this book leaves you with a lot of unanswered questions.
  
  
• Five Stars!!!
  By A2UCRZ1ZQCHQNA on 2005-01-11
  Such a great book, thanks for the great work!
  
  It is precise and concise and backed by a solid analysis framework. Reading this book and appreciating his genius and insight, I feel the author is such a honest and modest person as well.
  
  
  The most important thing I learned is not the conclusion but the process of analysis, which is hard to be found in other "fancy" books/articles.
  
  
  One small thing though, if there was a content index in the book, that would be better:-)
  
  
• Pluses outweigh minuses
  By A1YOKD53RRYCHT on 2005-01-28
  In 1976 when I wrote my book, Energy Forecast to 1990, I should have, first, listened to Rogers. I was only half-right. Saleswise, the book was a clunker, deservedly so.Quick overview of Hot Commodities:Regarding China, right on. The world balance of trade seems to pivot off China these days. Their worldwide trade clout is awesome, and growing. To me, reading most of his other predictions, too, are like reading tomorrow's newspaper today. Overall, he seems to stress, wisely, that humble recognition of your own ignorance is the logical first-step essential to good commodities trading (something I learned the hard way). He then goes on to fill in the blank spots with some truly wise counsel.On the negative side: no worthwhile amount of space is given to commodities options, which is the small commodities investor's best friend--no worries about taking shipment, getting stuck, or mired with the actual goods--only paperwork transactions. I would have thought that a nod in this direction--particularly in selling put and call options, rather than buying--would have made this a superb "overview" book indeed.
  
  
• Well thought out arguments - very educational
  By A1W9KQRCZ9ORHB on 2005-02-15
  The predictions made in this book appear well researched and possible (if not probable) over the medium term. Like most small investors my assets are split between bonds, stock and realestate.
  
  I have never considered commodities, as the market research required is too involved and I believed the risks to be too high. This book explains the rationale for investing in commodities very well - and the predictions provide a sound justification.
  
  I'm very uncertain of the mechanics though. Also, unless you understand what drives supply and demand for a given commodity it's a gamble not an investment (like any other "investment" where you don't undertand the product).
  
  From reading this book my next steps are more research and most likely investing in a fund (the authors intent?). I don't kow whether commodities are the worlds best market, I won't be betting my shirt, but certainly a good way to diversify given the all too real possibility of a bear/flat market and sliding dollar.
  
  Far from complete coverage, but well worth reading.
  
  
• A New Bull Commodities Market
  By A5WMBIOGE8Q6N on 2005-03-11
  A new bull commodity market is emerging. The twentieth century saw three long commodities bulls (1906-1923, 1933-1953, and 1968-1982), each lasting an average of 17 years. Price is a function of supply-and-demand, as supplies are plentiful prices remain low; as supplies become scarce prices will rise. An investor, who realizes when a supply and demand imbalance is occurring and invests, will make money.
  
  Good investment is looking for opportunities and buying cheap then holding long term for significant profits. Stocks are over priced with excessively high P/E ratios. Can soars continue to soar higher? When commodity prices go up stock prices go down, the cost of doing business. Bonds yields are weak as lower interest rates have drove down yields. Real Estate is an investment bubble waiting to be burst with a possible resulting loss of wealth ranging between $2 to $3 trillion. Prices are too high for investors to make money. Currencies values are a function of national debt. The U.S is the largest debtor with $8 trillion dollars of international IOUs. For the last 20 years, the U.S has been borrowing in world financial markets because of large trade deficits and the continual borrowing has drove down the value of the dollar. Increased government spending and the Feds printing of money have created a devalued dollar and reduced foreign investment; in a 12 month period between June 2003 and June 2004 foreign investment went a negative $155 billion). The weaker dollar makes commodities seem more expensive, as in the case of oil; between 2002 and 2004 crude oil prices rose 64 percent in dollar and 16 percent in euros with the dollar losing 40 percent against the euro in the same time period. The strength or weakness of the dollar has nothing to do with the price of the commodity. Commodity price is driven by increasing demand resulting in shortage or perceived shortage.
  
  "Commodities are so pervasive that, in my view, you really cannot be a successful investor in stocks, bonds, or currencies without understanding them." Investing in commodities can be a hedge against a bear market, rampant inflation, and a major downturn in the economy. One reason in the 1980s and 1990s companies and stocks did so well was raw materials were in a bear market and investors realized in the late 1990s the commodity bear market was ending and the stock bull market was coming to an ending, also. The bear commodity market came to an end in 1998 reaching a 20 year low. The cost of doing business was eating away profits taking drive for growth away from companies. Millions of investors listening to experts advocating the new economy were financially hammer and are still trying to break even.
  
  Why buy commodities now? The current supply-and-demand balance for commodities worldwide is out whack. Time will turn any oversupply of a commodity into an empty warehouse unless its inventory is replenished. Demand for supplies increased and years of cheap oil drove a taste for gas guzzlers; low mortgage rates increased the size of homes and the cost too heat and cool them; bigger cars and home ate up lumber, steel, aluminum, and lead. Now China has started to gobble up commodities. China has the fast growing economy in the world for 2003-2004 at 9 percent. China imports half of its copper, three-fifths of its iron ore, and one-third of its oil; and draining Europe re-cycle plants of every bit of scrape they can produce. China must feed 1.3 billion people and the Chinese are eating more meat increasing the demand for corn feed; China is importing Soy from Brazil and Australia; and China is importing more sugar. All at a time when China is short of every raw material that it needs. The imbalance is exploding demand while supplies are being depleted. Let look at the basic survival commodities: Oil, Natural Gas, Metal, and Sugar. Oil: No Major oil field discoveries, giant reservoirs are 50 to 70 years old, no new U.S oil refineries, drilling rigs decreased from 4,530 to 1,201 (1981-2004). U.S officials and companies are looking to Russia to pump enough oil to satisfy hunger for energy. Natural gas: North America has not kept pace with demand and officials are expressing alarm about possible prolonged shortages of natural gas. Gas fields in Canada and Alaska are still without pipelines to bring gas to the market. Metals: No new mine shafts in 20 years world-wide. Sugar has become an energy commodity having been turned into ethanol to power vehicles. More than 60 percent of the world's ethanol is produced from sugar. Brazil is promoting ethanol sales in China. War and political chaos push commodity prices higher.
  
  
  
  
  
• ok, we all envy jim rogers, but ....
  By A3SLYSNZPRU036 on 2005-05-17
  We all like to listen to Jim, and we all envy his lifestyle, but he hasn't really done much heavy lifting for us in this book ... First, where's the table of contents? They're not very hard to write!
  
  And, how can a book about futures avoid technical analysis and timing? Most folks who wander into future get slaughtered, because they don't undertand leverage and timing. Jim just says he's a rotten timer and moves on.
  
  OK, if you don't use leverage, and you do take a long term view (i.e. buy jim's fund?) maybe you'll do well. But, it's far from certain that we've started a massive run in commodities.
  
  Sure, the CRB index (of a wide basket of commodities) was up 70% from 10/01 to mid 3/05, but in the last 2 months, it's fallen 9%; there are worries about the persistence of Chinese demand, of a glut in Chinese steel, etc. Just because there have been a few past instances of commodities having long runs when stocks trended down, there's no guarantee of a repeat in the future.
  
  Also, in the period since commodities began to run, some have done much better than others. Why? Which may have peaked? Which are "sleepers" likely to "catch up"? Maybe oil will run for years, but grains and softs have much less certain prospects. What about precious metals?
  
  On the plus side, jim's book certainly does pique one's interest in commodities, and gives the reader good background, and lots of places to go to learn more. Also, I have to salute jim's timing in launching his fund (just before the CRB took off) and in writing his book. And he's as thought-provoking as ever to listen to.
  
  So, it IS a good and a fun read, but won't really help you make money in commodities. It will give you some fascinating background and send you off to either buy his fund (which I should say is not featured - to his credit) or to do LOTS more research.
  
  
• Beginners, look it up at your local library
  By A9757LEIKE94M on 2005-05-25
  The first chapter is a bit of a bore.. it is little more than a promo for his fund, the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI) which "was up 190%!!"...
  Other than that, Rogers targets the novice who needs convincing (at times hard-selling) that commodities are a
  worthwile consideration for your portfolio.
  If you don't need convincing and want to discover the reasoning and analysis behind his bullishness, you will might want to skip ahead to end of Ch1.
  
  During the first chapter, he also highlights commodities as an alternative to other securities by being non-bullish to
  bearish for every market but commodities. Cautious followers might want to consider some economy-wide factors that can actually influence ALL markets.
  E.g. rising interest rates will impact the borrowing costs, & therefore purchasing power, of those in demand for commodities
  (e.g. China). Meanwhile, commodity producers will strategically plan increases in output to take advantage of the higher raw
  commodity prices, push higher prices onto the buyer & slice out their margin of profit...
  
  Rogers then makes some questionable claims:
  "when stocks go down - commodities go up" - a vastly oversimplified claim - and;
  "the nation's economic health is not a deciding factor" - ..but a stable infrastructure is required to effectively export/distribute commodities..
  
  He also oversimplifies the nature of commodity markets, suggesting that little more than the forces of supply and demand govern these markets.
  
  Ch2 then goes onto dispelling myths about commodities..a tad boring to be honest..
  
  Onwards, the book goes into some interesting points/facts about how to start analysing industry fundamentals, the various
  commodity classes, China & India's role etc.
  
  He covers the basics about futures but if you are 'starting out' you might want to forget about futures for your first 5 or 10 years..or, of course, look into an index fund like the RICI [yes, Rogers takes the opportunity to promote his fund..again..]
  
  
  Overall, the book is worth looking out for at your local library considering there is a lack of good books on trading full-stop.
  If you are a beginner, some of the points raised by Rogers will allow you to think & critique a little. And it is reasonably priced so you can save for your RICI account.
  
  On the other hand, it is of little use or entertainment to the non-beginner who aims to be challenged & incorporate ideas
  into a trading strategy.
  If you thought the Market Wizards books were great, don't expect this book to be great just because Rogers is one of the 'market wizards'.
  
  
• Trading commodities may appear deceptively easy ...
  By ATH30CRCANN71 on 2005-01-17
  Please take the word 'any' in the title of this book with large doses of salts of disbelief. If making money was as simple as the title suggests then Mr. Rogers would not have invested his time and energy writing this book.
  
  Trading commodities may appear deceptively easy and is often injurious to the financial health of even experienced traders. So it may utterly humiliate the beginner. Trading is complex, not only because of the scope of what you must learn, but also because of many other factors involved. The best way to learn is to start slowly and do mock trades, back test your strategies and monitor your performance. Trading is serious business and for those who approach the profession soberly and with reasonable expectations, the rewards are there.
  
  Jim portrayal of India is not as positive as I had expected. India is set to be world's hottest destination for foreign direct investment in the next four years, according to a UN-sponsored survey. These results are based on a joint survey conducted by the UNCTAD in Geneva and by Corporate Location Magazine in London.
  
  
  
• It's the same old song...
  By A55MRYPUAX4QU on 2005-03-14
  I like Jim Rogers's style; it is intelligent, well-reasoned and informative. It is the substance that causes problems starting with the title. If "Anyone" could invest profitably in the world's be market we would all be sitting at our PCs trading coffee, coal and tea futures left and right (as many did during the tech boom). If "Anyone" was prescience about commodities, it would be the first time considering the experts (quote unquote) caught off guard by the drop in silver, rise in coffee, the glut (then shortage) of oil and last, but not least, the huge drop in the market itself.
  
  If you are looking for general information about the "market of markets" along with a little history, some geopolitcal musings and some common sense approaches, this is the book for you. If, instead, you want to make a fortune you would be better served attending a seminar on buying and selling property "with no money down." (<--- a joke) That's the problem with guides of this sort - they attract those who think the "Big Boys" have a secret, get-rich-quick scheme that does not involve hard work, research and risks.
  
  This is a notch above others of this genre but please keep in mind that "oil would never rise about $30/barrel", the Dow would hit 35,000 or 100,000 (take your pick) and gold prices would soar through the roof. All of these ideas were the subject of best sellers whose fans defended them ferociously. Some convinced even "experts" in the field since their arguement, in a vaccuum, sounded not only reasonable but plausible. As one reviewer notes, the author favors China over over Asian countries and gives good reason why. This part (the geopolitical) may be some of the best insights in the book.
  
  
• Add Some 'Things' to Your Portfolio!
  By A39NVY8RPC1YH4 on 2005-04-01
  This is an engaging introduction to a topic that even many experienced investors find intimidating. In what may be a seminal report on the subject from the Yale School of Management's Center for International Finance, "Facts and Fantasies About Commodity Futures" [Gorton, Rouwenhorst: 2004] academia gives support to Jim Rogers' real world experience as a commodities investor. The conclusions: Returns on commodities have often been better on a risk adjusted basis than stocks and bonds. Commodities have historically done well when these more traditional investments have suffered and so offer investors seeking to diversify their portfolios a solid alternative. The greatest returns come from investing in commodity futures rather than stocks of companies that produce those same commodities. Notably, commodities have performed well during periods of inflation.
  
  Rogers believes the current bull market in commodities began in 1998 and based on precedent should run 17-18 years until 2015. At the heart of the commodity cycle is a supply-demand dynamic that impacts many natural assets differently. Rogers gives readers an introduction to the pricing drivers for oil, gold, sugar, lead and coffee.
  
  Chapter 5 deals with the voracious demand for commodities coming out of China. Chapter 6 "Goodbye, Cheap Oil" looks at the world supply of oil and alternative sources of energy. Both chapters have the potential to alter the reader's investment perspective.
  
  Some takeaway nuggets: China is consuming half the world's cement. No major oil field has been discovered in thirty-five years. The U.S. foreign trade imbalance is growing by a trillion dollars every two years. Asians save almost 40 percent of their income (versus 2 percent in the U.S.).
  
  Readers of HOT COMMODITIES will not likely gain the confidence needed to invest in sugar futures, etc. They will have a better appreciation for including commodities in a well diversified portfolio. Unfortunately there are few mutual funds that focus on commodities. What is still needed in this reader's opinion is an ETF (exchange traded fund) that tracks a broad-based commodity index.
  
  
• good introduction but many inadequacies
  By A1PGJ0IB9M5TYF on 2005-04-10
  i share with one of the reviewers' frustration that the book i bought has no contents page and the page header does not show which chapter u are reading, it seems the book came out in a rush to sell his index fund,
  
  nevertheless it is a good introduction to the fundamentals of commodity trading - but one glaring omission is any analysis on silver, one of the most heavily traded, yet least researched commodity, perhaps he assumed that it just dances together with gold, but that's a big mistake, silver is (unlike gold) as much an industrial metal as a precious metal, interested readers could search "butler research" to find out
  
  
• Did you know that bacon comes from pork bellies?
  By A1IA7P9DY5Y2T3 on 2005-05-16
  I like Jim Rogers (although I do think he is a bit funny looking). I liked both of his previous books (Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist) and I like this one as well. He writes in a very straightforward and easy to understand manner. He isn't patronising. He is well reasoned and, I believe (in this book at least), he makes good sense.
  
  His basic premise goes something like this: we are at the beginning of a new bull market in commodities that will last for another 10 years or more; investors who get in now stand to make a lot of money over that time; the best way to invest in commodities is via an index tracker; he happens to have started an index tracker; his index tracker is the best on the market; therefore - you got it - you should invest in his index tracker if you want to make lots of many.
  
  OK, that might be a "little" unfair. There is more to Hot Commodities than that - but there is at least a hint of a sales pitch in this book.
  
  The strength of Rogers' argument lies in its simplicity. He points out that the price of commodities (as with any asset class) is driven by the forces of supply and demand. And at the moment there is not enough supply (the infrastructure for commodities has been ignored for years) and there is plenty of demand (thanks mainly to China). He argues that it is going to take some time to correct the supply side of the equation (you can't build a silver mine overnight or discover, tap, ship and refine oil in a short time either). Therefore it will take years for supply to catch up with growing demand and this will be reflected in rising commodity prices.
  
  There are also a number of interesting case studies on particular commodities (oil, coffee, gold and sugar). There is a chapter on China and there is brief discussion of the 4 or so commodity indexes on the market at the moment. It is also worth noting that the general economic analysis that Rogers walks the reader through is equally applicable to other assets such as equities or property.
  
  Overall there is plenty of information to get me more interested in commodities and to make me want to do some further research of my own. Perhaps the only thing that the book lacked for me was further discussion of the different ways an individual can actually invest in commodities, further discussion of the different tracker funds that are on the market and a steer towards useful resources for further research.
  
  
  
• George Soros' gopher
  By A2VYI6DBI73S5T on 2005-03-27
  Who says that intelligence is equated with market success? Rogers was a junior partner of George Soros close to 27 years ago. At that time, soros managed a relatively small amount of funds versus what he has accumulated in the past 2 decades. Rogers has been living off of this assumed reputation since then. What did he leave with--$15 million? That pales when measured against the trading legends. Rogers has fared better marketing himself rather than the bottom line success of market performance. I dare say he lives off of his book revenues. I would not be surprised to learn that the extent of his profits is no larger than that pretentious bow tie that he chooses to wear. I would be surprised that he could even find a helmet to wear to cover his oversized head when he drives that psuedo motorcycle he claims he drove around the world. Give this fool a 'D' grade for marketing and a resounding 'F' for true trading performance.
  
  
• Worth reading
  By A39H36E9D8NHU7 on 2005-11-08
  Jim Rogers is always worth-reading, whether one agrees with his opinion or not. The reader gets insight into one of the true trading Market Wizards. True in the sense that he has a very long track record, survived many ups and downs in the markets, is one of the true pioneers in macro-investing and, most of all, travelled the world twice which gives him a unique edge in understanding global economics.
  
  Hot Commodities is an easy reading book on why Rogers is bullish on commodities and on how investors can profit (provided his analysis is correct) in those markets. Rogers writing style is lucid and leaves complicated jargon out. I strongly agree with Rogers that commodities never get the respect they deserve.
  
  In sum, whether you agree with the author or not on being bullish on commodities, the book is definitely worth reading.
  
  PS: Rogers track-record on predicting markets movements has not always been correct (see Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager when Rogers expected a financial collapse in April 88). This does not discard the fact, that Rogers is one of the finest and most original macro investors of our time.
  
  
• Excellent!
  By A2WGRMPXHT2XVF on 2006-04-25
  Jim Rogers once again does the reading public a service with the publication of "Hot Commodities". Rogers is an excellent antidote to the spate of "invest a few hundred a month into an S&P Index fund and retire a millionaire" books. Rogers cogently argues that stocks (especially U.S. equities) will either decline or fail to appreciate in the coming years and that tangible goods like crude oil, soybeans, copper (and many others) will become valuable. Rogers's reasoning is simple: because commodities were so plentiful/cheap for so many years, most of the marginal producers of those goods failed or changed businesses. Now that countries like India and China are growing, demand is increasing faster than the ability of the marketplace to meet that demand. As any self-respecting economist can explain, that means a rise in values, and profits for those who are long commodities. I should point out that Rogers is solely a fundamentalist; there are no moving averages, MACD histograms, or other technical analysis graphs in the book. Also, Rogers is an investor, looking ahead not weeks or months but years. My only complaint about the book is that Rogers is somewhat nebulous about the best way to profit from the burgeoning commodities market, but a lot of that is because of the nature of commodities contracts. Unless you have a warehouse in your backyard, you are not going to purchase and store any of the commodities mentioned. Unfortunately, you cannot buy a commodities contract and hold it indefinitely like a stock. Rogers has his own index fund based upon the Rogers Raw Materials Index ("RICI"). Although he mentions RICI frequently in the book, "Hot Commodities" stands alone and is not a sales brochure for Rogers's fund. Read it!
  
  

• A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market
• Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (Lynn Sonberg Books)
• Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip
• Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers
• The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means