Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World Reviews

• Scarce And Expensive Oil In The Future

  
  By A2IP33O7WBJLU5 on 2004-10-11
  This is Richard Heinberg's second book on the oil depletion problem, his first was THE PARTY'S OVER, you probably should read that book before this one, to get an overview of the enormous problem facing us in the near future. In this latest volume Heinberg writes much more about the underlying politics of the depletion scenario, and it is'nt a pretty one. At one time, when it was said that the war in Iraq was really about oil I did'nt believe it, or perhaps it was one of the minor side issues of the war. But Heinberg makes a case for it. After Bush declared "mission accomplished" (a laugh) his group only allowed primarily American companies, with a few allied companies, to work in Iraq. And it does'nt take much imagination to see that, as the Iraqi oil infrastructure is repaired (attempted), American oil companies will get most of the work. In a global free market economy the highest bidder would get Iraqi oil, but in a severe oil shortage Uncle Sam may declare: that since we "fixed" the system in Iraq the USA gets the oil...Iraqis are'nt stupid, they see this as a real possibility, that is perhaps one reason they sabotage oil pipelines continuously. As Heinberg writes, Bush and his followers are incompetent, with their belligerent foreign policy, but Heinberg does give Bush credit for recognizing the looming oil depletion problem on our horizon. Heinberg writes in detail of all of this, saying that instead of using the war to solve this problem we should instead be cooperating with other countries and spending the vast sums of money we are wasting on the war on alternate energy sources.
  
  Although Heinberg believes we are already too late to prevent a collapse of our industrial way of life, he also writes that we should nevertheless begin the task of developing alternate energy sources, as they will be needed eventually, regardless of whether a collapse occurs and it's severity. Also, as Heinberg writes in detail, the neoconservatives that are now in power (the Bush administration) have informally connected to the 'religious right', making a powerful impediment to any progress to efforts to create a sustainable civilization, and that this coalition of neoconservatives with the religious right will lead us into endless resource wars and further ignite anti-American sentiments and additional terrorism against the USA and it's interests.
  
  But the primary message here is resource depletion, especially oil. Also discussed by Heinberg is the idea of 'population overshoot', have we exceeded the carrying capacity of our planet via the production of vast amounts of food made possible by ferilizer manufactured with abundant and cheap natural gas? To me this is all very alarming, and we all should get our personal economic houses in order while we still are able to.
  
  If the collapse of civilization as we know it is inevitable , perhaps, as Heinberg suggests, the best course for us is the preservation of books, the arts, etc., for use later in a post-collapse society. The sustainable energy program that Heinberg and many others suggest that we should pursue with utmost urgency seems unlikely to occur until the American people are faced with a severe oil shortage and massive price increases. Then the politicians will be forced to take real and responsible action. In the meantime we seem to be in a period of nearly endless resource wars with hundreds of billions of dollars each year diverted to this losing cause that indeed should be spent on alternate energy sources, better highways, and better health care, for all Americans. Considering the vast amounts we are spending in this overseas war effort, perhaps the terrorists have already won!
  
  As a personal note, I have read a bit on the oil depletion problem, and the estimates of the date of the world oil production peak I have seen range from right now to the year 2020, a couple go out to 2034-2037, they can be dismissed rather easily, so it seems that around the year 2015 is a good average, in time we shall see. Of course, any large increase in world demand for oil could overwhelm the supply, making the peak date irrelevant.
  
  

• A dismal science

  
  By A376501QWHXQYJ on 2004-08-31
  This is a followup to the earlier book, 'The Partys Over'. The basic thrust of this book is simple 'We are going to run out of power soon, very soon so what are we going to do?'
  
  The basic facts of overpopulation, energy and resource depletion basic planet abuse and mismanagement are laid out in some detail tho there are many references back to 'The Partys over'. Although there can be arguments made about exactly when the lights are going to go out, there can be very little doubt that the lights are going to go out. Alternate fuels like methane or tar sands - even hydrogen are shown to be simply not practical or plentiful enough.
  
  The possible scenarios for afterwards that are spelt out are not very attractive. From 'Ignorance is bliss' to 'The Power grab', there is going to be widespread misery for most as the world civilization teeters and then collapses.
  
  But there is an air of inevitability that permeates this book. The author tries to be upbeat "Yes we can change the world" but all evidence seems to point to the contrary - that the world is blind and deaf and oblivious- that those leaders who should be preparing us for the coming diasaster are both uncaring and greedy.
  
  Toynbee's theory about the rise and fall of past civilizations was challenge and response. Civilizations reach a point where due to varying factors the threat from outside is simply greater then the inner ability to respond - so the civilization collapses. From the Romans to the Mayas to the present day, the theory holds true.
  
  Bush's "Pax Americana" - the power grab for control of the oil of the mideast is just a salvo in the the opening scene of our final act. Dwindling resources - energy food water fought over by an unmanageable population paint a bleak future. Our end is already whimpering the bang is in the foreseeable future.
  
  

• Common Sense, Speaking Truth, Valuable Exit Strategies

  
  By A1S8AJIUIO6M9K on 2005-10-30
  This is a thoughtfully devised book that is about more than just oil. It reads like an elegant personalized tutorial in which the author presents the big picture, the current condition, four competing options, and a recommendation for a personal exit strategy. This book is quite literally priceless if you pay attention to the lesson.
  
  The author puts the end of cheap oil in the larger context of other depleting resources (water, ocean fisheries, agricultural resources such as topsoil); population growth; declining food production, global climate change and ecocide; unsustainable levels of US debt; and international political instability.
  
  The author is severely critical of all politicians in general, and brutally scornful of the neo-conservatives that have captured the Bush-Cheney-Halliburton-Exxon Administration (Enron being an invisible partner now). He actually itemizes, rather effectively (a half page for each of the following), what Bush-Cheney have done in eight years that is against the interests of the Republic. According to the author and his sources, they have 1) Stolen an election; 2) placed convicted felons and human-rights violators in positions of power; 3) facilitated 9/11, blocking its prevention, as a means of justifying the war on Iraq and a consolidation of domestic police power; 4) Lied to the American people, the UN, and other publics about Iraq, a war of choice not need; 5) Undermined international law; 5) applied indiscriminate force against civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq, killing tens if not hundreds of thousands; and 6) subverted the US Constitution.
  
  I take the above at face value--it is less of an angry diversion from the book's theme, and more of a critical current assessment showing that in the face of these larger strategic shortfalls that face us, Bush-Cheney were exactly the WRONG way to go. I of course acknowledge that the American people chose to return them to office; hence we get the government we deserve.
  
  Across the book the author takes great care to cite the work of others and point the reader to useful resources. On pages 94-95 he gives us the key seven needs in a powerdown scenario: 1) Stabilize human population; 2) Increase resource efficiency; 3) Shift economics from production to services (including full employment); 4) Reduce pollution; 5) Divert capital to food production (one might add, basic food production like beans, instead of frivolous food production like exotic mushrooms and out of season fruits); 6) Shift agriculture to a sustainable model; and 7) Improve the design of all hard goods to make them durable and repairable.
  
  I am absolutely fascinated with and respectful of the author's focus on Cuba as a model for a powerdown scenario. He does a tremendous job of showing how Cuba adjusted to the US embargoes and the collapse of their Soviet sponsor by going to organic agriculture, mass transit and use of bicycles and animals for much individual transport, and so on. It is be a compelling and fascinating turn of events if the Cuban organic full employment model ultimately triumphs over the immoral profligate US model of consumer capitalism and double deficits (debt and trade). Espero, con respeto, ese dia en el qual Cuba podra declarar su exito moral y nacional.
  
  The other model that the author recommends is the Amish model, where there is a very high reliance on human labor and smart farming without tractors or pesticides.
  
  The author debunks hydrogen as an alternative fuel, points out that hundreds of nuclear plans could be a 50 year solution, but that we will run out of uranium in several decades, and that solar and wind power are now very viable, but will be slow to scale. He emphasizes two aspects of any plausible positive scenario: 1) it will need deliberate commitments at the community level to re-engineer entire counties toward sustainable models, with locally produced food and limited energy demands, massive conservation of water; and 2) it will require considerable government intervention--large scale government intervention.
  
  The author ends with a retrospective on the decline and fall of the Roman and Mayan civilizations. The latter experienced population growth, then tribal fights over scarce resources, a "surprise" drought with cataclysmic impact; and finally, a political leadership engrossed in short-term objectives and unwilling to focus on strategic planning for the long-term. This sounds all too familiar.
  
  A final note that I really admired: the author emphasizes that in the future we will need to return to the employment of "primitive" technologies that are not dependent on fuel, and that there will be a need for a new order of monks or knowledge transmitters, who can re-teach entire generations, entire populations, how to powerdown while ramping up communal agriculture and self-sufficiency.
  
  I will end by saying very candidly that my family is going to cash out of the Northern Virginia area. We are going to sell our home, my office building, and my business, and we are going to move to a community on a robust river in the mountains where communal self-sufficiency can be achieved. This is one of several books that have had a life-altering impact on my family. I do not trust our politicians to be responsible at the federal or state level. I am therefore moving us down to a county-level of personal integrity and interaction, where honor might be assured by a combination of kinship and mutual dependency. I cannot think of a more serious means of ending my review of this book than by stating how it has directed me.
  
  

• Highly Recommended

  
  By A3U6N7L45YKYM on 2004-08-23
  I've been following the peak oil debate for several years and generally agree with most of its proponents. Still, I've remained on the fence about exactly how to deal with it. Powerdown moved me off the fence.
  
  I think what makes this book special is that the author frames peak oil within the context of a larger issue, namely, the problem and effects of overpopulation. By addressing peak oil in that manner, he's able to draw together other developing threats, showing their interrelationship and, by extension, offering a clearer and more comprehensive perspective on our relationship to the world.
  
  Despite the troubling nature of the subject matter, it's an invigorating read. That's due to good writing and the author's clear explanations of the various subjects he weaves together. Primarily, though, he shows that despite the immediacy of our situation, hope remains. And even if we fail collectively, the proactive individual need not suffer as well.
  
  Although the book's opening argument is simple and straightforward - through unchecked growth we've pushed humanity and the planet to the breaking point - it covers more than just overpopulation and resource depletion, e.g., politics, culture, economics, and ecology. We're facing breakdown in each of these areas. Peak oil is simply leading the charge.
  
  Coming to terms with the convergence of these crises will define humanity's turning point from adolescence to maturity. Powerdown tells us how we got here and why - and most importantly, what our options are. Once we have a clear understanding of the broader issues underlying peak oil, we can see it's not just another doomsday prediction, nor is it the singular threat to our continued growth. It is an opportunity, if we allow it to be. It is the harbinger of our next evolutionary leap.
  
  

• NOT a pleasant book, but absolutely essential reading

  
  By A2ILF4DC73GDQG on 2004-11-29
  Back in the mid-70's when I was in college, I read a book called "Small is Beautiful" by E.F Schumacher (I wrote a review of this book under my old name Gwydionoak). It introduced what my economics teacher called the "great heresy" of economics - the simple, undisputable message that infinite economic (or any other) growth is not possible within a finite system. He also warned about the catastrophic consequences of ignoring this simple fact where our fossil fuels were concerned. The professor warned me that Schumacher was a 'radical', but that history would ultimately prove him right - an amazing comment at the time from a professor at Brigham Young University, a school well known for its very conservative view of the world.
  
  Well, current history HAS proven Shumacher right - in spades. His warnings went universally unheeded, and Richard Heinberg, along with a few other courageous writers, has taken on the utterly thankless task of telling us that the moment Schumacher warned us about is now here, that the world peak of oil production will occur (if it hasn't already) within the next 1-3 years, and that world production will decrease steadily and unalterably afterwards, with repercussions that will spread out rapidly geometrically to every aspect of the western industrial civilization we have come to take for granted.
  
  Reading this book was, for me, like having a doctor tell me that I have cancer. No one wants to hear that bit of news, but if you are to survive cancer - or the massive world upheavals that will likely begin before this decade is over - you need to know exactly what your condition is, and what options you have. This is precisely what Heinberg attempts to do. He lays out what he considers to be the four most likely options for industrial society (and the war in Iraq proves beyond debate which path the Bush administration has already chosen) over the next few decades, and makes suggestions for those who wish to get through the turbulent times ahead. Heinberg's book is not flawless, as the author himself admits at the end:
  
  "This is just one person's attempt to survey a vast, complex, and shifting terrain,and I have inevitably oversimplified it. The view I have offered is unavoidably partial, even though my goal has been to set aside personal predudices as much as I can."
  
  He has accomplished his task.
  
  This is NOT a pleasant book to read, or to think about, but there is good news - Cancer IS survivable. So are the times to come. Read the book. Go online - do a Google Search of 'Peak Oil.' Then get busy.
  
  
• Nothing Special Here
  By A2WZW9S4NCCORP on 2006-02-23
  I will preface the review that I believe most of the tenets of "Peak Oil" and related arguments. I picked up this book after seeing it in a side-bar banner add on a popular peak oil forum. I was disappointed as soon as I started reading. my main comments on the book are
  1) The book doesn't offer any new data on the topic, but instead gives a rehash of peak oil along with some alarmist consequences
  2) The book doesn't offer any tenable strategies to survive the author's "power down" scenario. Kunstler in his book "Long Emergency" gives more meat here (though still not too much).
  3) The author gets sidetracked in a conspiracy theory discussion on Bush, the Iraq war, and various other ills of the military-industrial complex. Generally I think these types of theories don't add a lot to the discourse, and was annoyed to see "Bush is Bad" references sprinkled throughout.
  
  Bottom line is: not terrible, but not worth $10.
  
  
• Preaching to the choir on a very important subject
  By A2A1Z05PNNCMMG on 2005-04-20
  Heinberg is at his best when he is analyzing data and presenting it in a digestible form - which he does in about 1/3rd of the book. Unfortunately, his editorializing leans towards a liberal whine (you can also hear it in the fantastic DVD, "The End of Suburbia") that many will find grating.
  
  His use of really bad cliches from time to time ranks rather sophmoric for a college professor. Maybe a few creative writing classes would help.
  
  Heinberg also tends to politicize things (a whole "speech George Bush should have delivered after 9/11" for example) that does nothing to appeal to people on both sides of our politically divided world about the severity of and need for a solution to the coming energy crunch. Preaching to the choir (me included) will not be enough to help to solve the problem, Richard!
  
  
• Choices for a future of expensive oil
  By A1M8PP7MLHNBQB on 2004-10-19
  This little book, only a couple of hundred pages lays out a future that sounds all to real. He is talking about a world that exists without oil. Corection, not without oil, oil will never go away, but it appears that production is at or just about at its peak. Today, like yesterday the price of oil hit a new high. The price of oil will go up some and down some, but the trend is up, and it's going to continue upward.
  
  The hell of it is, that this is no secret. Thirty years ago the Limits to Growth was published, laying out the whole senario. And the politicians know this. The Cheney Report in 2001 said, "Our prosperity and way of life are sustained by energy use. (E)nergy security must be a priority of US trade and foreigh policy." Quoted at the beginning of Chapter 1.
  
  But I watched the Presidential debates, there was little discussion on energy. There was a lot of discussion on Iraq (one of the big oil producers - but this wasn't mentioned), there was a lot of name calling, basically a lot of discussion that seemed to amount to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I didn't hear a word about increasing the fuel economy of automobiles, alternate sources of energy - I must have just missed it. Our leaders certainly are looking forward to how we are going to handle this crisis.
  
  This little book deserves to be read by everyone, I doubt that it will make the NY Times best seller list. Better than anything I've seen, it lays out the choices we have to make, either consiously or they will be made for us.
  
  
• Excellent and Timely Insights!
  By A22RY8N8CNDF3A on 2005-12-12
  The title line comes from a Jack Nichols/Tom Cruise 1992 movie, and applies to environmental stories as well. Periodically news comes of some new problem, and almost immediately it is forgotten. Problems we're not facing include resource depletion, population growth, declining per-capita grain production, global warming, unsustainable levels of U.S. debt, and international political instability caused by the U.S. pre-emptive invasion of Iraq.
  
  
  Heinberg sees three options (actually four, but I'm omitting one) in respose to declining energy resources:
  
  1)Competition For Remaining Resources: The result would be war and environmental catastrophe. The Iraq War can be viewed as the first such battle. Civil wars between various classes within a nation are another form this might take. Unfortunately, to escape this option requires that a nation's leadership have moral authority - something that U.S. politicians have lost; we are also hampered by our history of competitiveness and looking down on working with other nations.
  
  2)Cooperation and Conservation: Population limits, reducing per-capita usage in wealth areas, and more equitable distribution are key here. The U.S. could do much to conserve - starting with dramatic CAFE increases to "force" increased and better use of hybrids, European diesel auto engines, lighter cars, increased ride-sharing/use of public transportation, and reduced trips. (These would also benefit global-warming as well.) Requires much stronger government role and that it be seen as trustworthy - eg. Cuba. Unfortunately, the U.S. leadership is 100% in opposition.
  
  3)Wishful Thinking: A fairy-tale belief that market forces and technology will solve all our problems. Reality, however, is that this simply acerbates the problem and increases the ultimate liklihood of war - per Heinberg. Guess what the U.S. is doing? (Much-chearper polymer photovoltaics and wave-motion generation of power may yet prove important, per Heinberg.)
  
  Other interesting points made in the book include reporting that grain resources have fallen the last three years, a 9/03 ExxonMobil Exploration Division President wrote to stockholders that "oil and gas production from existing fields are declining at an average rate of 4 - 6%/year," oil discoveries peaked in the '60s, global warming is killing off plankton - which underpins the entire marine food chain, and another reason for invading Iraq (besides taking control of its oil and gaining greater leverage over Saudi Arabia and Iran to "bring stability to the area") was upsetness with Hussein's '00 announcement that payment must be in Euros and fear that others would follow leading to considerable U.S. economic damage.
  
  Neocons are a major concern of Heinberg. Their "leader" (Leo Strauss at the Univ. of Chicago) believed that a leader must perpetually deceive those being ruled, be accountable to no overarching system of morals, use religion to manipulate the masses, that secularism should be discouraged (leads to critical thinking and dissent), and that political system stability requires an external threat to focus on. Finally, the author is also concerned that the U.S. is increasingly adapting the ways of Nazi Germany - hate-mongering, radioi "shock jocks," and a Strauss-like amoral government.
  
  
• Starts Off Strong, Stumbles After Page 54, Finishes Weakly
  By A2ENIQZX6VJYUM on 2005-11-29
  I like the idea of this book, I like the title, and I like the first 25% or so. The rest is not good, since this book simply dies after page 54, and so overall it is a bust. Starting with lofty and worthwhile goals, it degenerates into a diatribe against Bush, then goes on to dance around the issues. The author has inserted all this Bush stuff, but then avoids answering his own questions about "powerdown". Somehow, the author got off track while writing the book. The book has gained some fame, and in retrospect I suspect largely for the author's earlier works. I am disappointed to have to give this book just 3 stars, about what it really merits.
  
  The opening sections are strong. He presents clear, logical, and entertaining arguments about our use of oil, the decline in discoveries, increasing demand in the US and China, etc. He presents graphs of new oil discoveries versus time, etc. All clear, but not new. Almost every thinking person knows that hydrocarbon reserves are finite and demand is increasing exponentially. Demand is on a collision course with supply. Our oil-coal-gas economy cannot be sustained, and even if we had infinite supplies, it would pollute the planet, and most know that CO2 leveles are rising every year. We knew this before we picked up the book. In any case, that is okay, it sets a foundation for a possible discussion that might follow. If they author had stayed the course and written the whole book as he did in this part, we would have a beautiful 5 star effort. Someone else picking up the book, and just reading this part, might conclude that it is a great 5 star book; it is not great; it is not even good; keep reading, he loses focus.
  
  He has six sections: one on energy sources, one called "Last One Standing" on conflicts, "Powerdown", "Magic Elixir", "Lifeboats", and "Choices".
  
  After the first section, the author poses questions, makes many references to history, makes some dire warnings about our loss of freedoms, etc., but he never answers his own questions. They are left dangling. Instead, he goes off on tangents quoting some other author or studies, inserting those into his book sometimes in table form or in point form, some information is simply exctracted from decades old books from the early 1970s or similar such as the basic terms of the Kyoto protocol,etc., and often it is just to back up his questions, not to give an answer to the central question: what do we do to "powerdown"? Where are we going? It is all very, very, frustrating to read, and in my humble opinon mostly a waste of time after page 54.
  
  The second section is dedicated to attacking Bush and Iraq. Like many he blames Bush and Cheney, that is okay, and they certainly are worthy of that blame, mismanagement of trade, the budget, an illegal invasion of Iraq. But what has that got to do with finite oil reserves and changing our future economy, i.e.: "powerdown" and "options"? In the final analysis not much, and Iraq is largely a distraction. With or without Iraq, we will face oil shortages, and probably sooner, not later. The war might cause small changes in timing, but in the end we need new technology and conservation.
  
  In any case, there are few hints of what we should do or how we might solve the problems: just questions and circular and frustrating philosophical arguments. When the author talks about "powerdown", where do we power down to, i.e.: what level? Is it 1000 watts, or 500 watts, or just 100 watts per capita? Presently we use 11,000 watts on average 24-7 in the US and 5,000 Watts in Europe. How do we get "there" - the "powerdown" level, whatever that is? What do we eliminate? Agriculture? Heating? Education?Transportation? Cancer therapy? All social and government services? All electronics? Aviation? How do we look after 5 to 10 billion people, without having every continent looking like Africa?
  
  He briefly mentions carbon tax credits, durable consumer goods, and solar villages, but these are no solutions. His other solution of fewer people and less energy consumption per capita is self evident, and we do not need the five chapters of discussion to make that point.
  
  Compare the present book with another book The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future by Hermann Scheer, a German politician and a winner of many international honours. Sheer's arguments are also a bit flawed. He is a socialist at heart, wants to cut energy consumption for philosophical reasons and also to make it easier to rely on solar energy, and he likes to quote Karl Marx. Scheer jumps the gun in terms of anticipating technical innovation in solar, but at least he presents some clear and specific arguments, clear goals, clear energy production numbers, clear energy generating processes, with answers to questions.
  
  Sure, the first few chapters are 5 star, but then for some unknown reason, the author lost his way. Unfortunately, the book is a bust and mostly a waste of money. I do not recommend buying.
  
  Better books for green reading: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Dennis L. Meadows - and perhaps that book or the original is a basis for the present book, The Solar Economy: Renewable Energy for a Sustainable Global Future by Hermann Scheer, a good book by Howard C. Hayden on Solar Energy (ignore his title!), Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond, Fueling the Future: How the Battle Over Energy Is Changing Everything by Andrew Heintzman (Editor), Evan Solomon (Editor), The Solar Electric House: Energy for the Environmentally-Responsive, Energy-Independent Home by Steven J. Strong, Renewable Energy Handbook for Homeowners: The Complete Step-by-Step Guide to Making (and Selling) Your Own Power from the Sun, Wind and Water by William H. Kemp,Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons, and finally The Discovery of Global Warming by Spencer R. Weart. The last author is associated with the American Institute of Physics.
  pixel
  
  
• Facts spoiled by hyperbole
  By A11EHIUQT8RY0A on 2006-04-22
  If I had not read numerous books on this subject - one of the best is the `Limits to Growth' series by MIT - I would be very skeptical of Heinberg's assertions because of his obvious bias against Western Civilization.
  
  However, after reading over a dozen books on essentially the same subject, I believe most of his assertions about the future are correct; namely that due primarily to population pressures and the necessities of civilization, the entire world is headed for an inevitable collapse.
  
  I believe the author ruins what could have been a great book with comments such as "The Earth cannot afford rich people ..." (page 178)" and "A small minority ... [who] think critically - will gradually come to the conclusion that the entire system of industrial civilization is inherently unsustainable" (page 183).
  
  I believe it's obvious to any serious student of history that civilization, if not requires, at least inevitably produces, wealth, i.e. "rich people", and given certain restrictions this is a good thing. And his assertion that "industrial civilization is inherently unsustainable" is patently absurd. It does seem that the current flavor of western industrial civilization, with its blind pursuit of growth at any/all costs, is headed for collapse, yet I can imagine dozens of flavors of industrial civilization which are sustainable.
  
  On the other hand, I very much appreciated his analysis of why the real culprit, over population, is not, and will not, be discussed in any way that matters.
  
  So if a reader can get past Heinberg's political ideology, this is a great book.
  
  P.S. The author provides many valuable references to books and web sites.
  
  
  
• Ridiculous ideas and ridiculous conclusions.
  By A3GK6YHJVPSEMM on 2006-04-12
  I'm an (unemployed) agronomist and I live in Brazil.About this book, I must tell you that I readn't it.In fact, a friend of me, send parts of this bad book to me, by e-mail, from America.
  She was scare, about the doomed prophecies of this book.
  There's so many frauds writen in this book, that I can't count the majority of then.
  1)This book claims that end of nitrogen from natural gas, will doom modern agriculture and spread famine.In fact, fertilizers with nitrogen can (and are) be produced with hydrogen from eletrolysis of water, using wind, hydro or nuclear energy.At the same time, using genetical engeneering, vegetables such as corn or wheat will produce his own nitrogen.We must see that soybean don't use nitrogen's fertilizers, because bacterias inside his roots made his nitrogen's fertilizers, without artificial fertilizers.This second alternative will produce cheap harvests, without fertlizers with nitrogen.
  2)This book claims that climbing oil prices will doom the world.In fact, whith more oil's price, the alternatives of oil will became better than ever.Ethanol in Brazil costs less then US$50,00 each brent.The Athabasca's oil sands are bigger than all Iraq's oil reserves.The shale oil has trillions of brents in the world.If you ad hydrogen to corn plant, you will produce oil.In other words:there's many future alternatives to the oil.
  
  The real big menace, to the world, is the same:religion.
  Nuclear bombs from Pakisthan, Iran or any other source are real menaces.Mad strong men from North Korea or China are also possible menaces in the future.
  
  
• Accessible overview of the energy crisis and our options
  By A3FEX2RN3Q5XT4 on 2006-05-08
  Looking at the cover of this book, one might assume that it's just a lengthy paranoid doomsday scenario; after all, the image of a darkened city with the words "power down" above it gives little hope. So Heinberg's (admittedly unrealistic) optimism for how we can avoid energy disaster comes as quite a surprise. "Power down" is not only what could happen if we continue to use fossil fuels at an alarming rate, but also a method of slowly decreasing usage and dependency in order to ensure human survival.
  
  In chapter 1, Heinburg explains the concept of peak oil and gives convincing evidence that we are nearing that peak in both oil and natural gas.
  
  In chapter 2, Heinburg demonstrates the most likely outcome of dwindling oil reserves: war. He also gives an intriguing assessment of the Iraq war, explaining how the war was related to oil, even if we didn't get a direct cut of Iraq's oil reserves.
  
  In chapter 3, Heinburg explains his "power down" concept; how the people of the world can work together to limit their consumption and curtail further population growth. Although he is hopeful that this could happen, the way he frames it makes it seem quite impossible, given it would involve a total reversal of Western culture and economic ideals.
  
  In chapter 4, Heinburg addresses a number of possible replacements for oil that have been touted, such as hydrogen fuel cells. He then explains how these sources are wildly impractical and inefficient, and will in no way replace the cheap, fossil fuels we are used to. Disappointingly, he does not address wind, solar, or hydro power.
  
  Chapter 5 addresses what we can do to save civilization, or at least small pockets of it, if the worst eventually does happen. He compares the eventual collapse of oil dependent economies to the collapse of the Roman and Mayan empires.
  
  The final chapter of the book addresses the choices that the elites and common citizens will most likely make in the wake of this coming crisis, and why even the environmentalist lobby isn't addressing the real issue: overpopulation. According to Heinburg, declinine reserves of fossil fuels are only a symptom of this even larger problem.
  
  This is a fairly thin volume which addresses a whole lot of complex issues. One of the complaints leveled about this book is that it contains information duplicated in many other sources, and does not go into much depth. Certainly, whole books could and have been written on any of the topics that Heinberg discusses. However, for a layperson with no educational background in these subjects, the book presents a great deal of information in an easily comprehensible way. To be concise, if you have already read many books on this subject, then look elsewhere, but if you are looking for a good introduction, this is the book.
  
  
• "Powerdown": The details...
  By AYNX41F8AICLB on 2005-10-25
  To-date, I have read a whole range of books on the subject of Peak Oil - the main items at least; and since mainstream interest and awareness of this issue is relatively recent, these books don't number many. Although there are many experts in this field, each of whom posesses his own unique and valuable contributions in analysing it, to me it seems that all are either vague or outlandishly alarmist about what will follow in the wake of Peak Oil. No doubt, Peak Oil is the singular most catastrophic "semi-natural" disaster to radically affect the course of human history, as never before recorded, but the post-Peak scenario needs careful analysis and comment. Among the range of P.O "specialists", Richard Heinberg stands out as being more reasonable in his assesments of the world after oil production starts declining, and this book "Powerdown" is his contribution to that particular aspect of P.O studies. He derives his conclusions, and then presents his recommendations and suggestions. Heinberg rightly dismisses those who predict a quick "return to the Stone Age", although a regression in overall technological development is inevitable but it won't be in such off-the-cuff dramatic terms or even "stone age". What will happen won't be to the liking of most modern "Westerners", but it will be a reality people will have to contend with, gladly. Many aspects of life will slip to pre-industrial levels as were found around 200 years ago. It is widely predicted that the world's population, quadrupled over the last 150 years or so by petroleum induced industrial prosperity and living standards, will start slipping to below those levels and stabilise at around 1 billion: ther will be a massive "die-off". The Western public's living standards will hover around 18th century levels, though I have to point out, as Heinberg does, that oil will not disappear at all; it is just that oil will no longer be cheap or readily available and therefore accesible to the common citizen as nowadays is taken for granted. That translates into the disappearance of things from life such as full supermarkets, roads, suburbs, plastics, motor vehicles, air travel, modern pharmaceuticals and fertilisers, Gillette Shaving Gel, Nikon SLR cameras, LED flashlights, PCs, DVD and MP3 players and Sattelite TV, to name but a random few of the objects that clutter up modern life... Here let me also digress to point out some thing very basically important, which even Heinberg is guilty of not doing: "Modern things" as we know them, like aircraft, motor transport and electronics will still be very much around, but will be reserved for LIMITED and EXCLUSIVE state and military (i.e "elite") use and application. This is a hard, unpleasant fact common modern Western citizens living in democracies will have to get used to: that the democracy, prosperity, massive material consumerism and civil rights privileges they took so much for granted in the past 60 years after World War 2 especially were by courtesy of cheap oil availibility that enabled ALL aspects of their development. Modern Westerners take a lot in their lifestyles for granted, and most of their conceptions in this regard are outrageous and audacious because it is these that fuelled their decadent and wasteful consumer behaviour and their public apathy towards less fortunate areas of the globe - which resulted in greed, unequal development of humanity and the premature depletion of its common natural resources, plus the overall ecological degradation of our planet within just a few decades. Now Westerners will be forced - yet loath - to acknowledge some kind of "less democratic" socialist system and more state control over their lives, for their own good, to regulate the proper use and fair distribution of meagre available resources and production; here I want to make it clear that I don't advocate the sort of fascist elitism for the sake of elitism as we see nowadays in the corporate West, or the nightmarish errors of 20th century Marxism or Nazism. Such a "long emergency", to paraphrase another major Peak Oil theoretician J.H. Kunstler, could continue for decades or centuries till such time as some new source or place of plentiful energy is miraculously discovered and developed. However, by then it is hoped that major lessons will have been learned by humankind. On the other hand, the real danger of implosion and "reversion" to neo-stone age chaos and even extinction exists for those societies such as most in the Third World, which have never really developed, and where any "development" at all is merely a fake verneer forcefully imposed over a dysfunctional, backward society by a corrupt class of Western crony ruling elites, dependent on the West's oil fuelled global imperialist system. Peak Oil has a way of holding the mirror to everyone's face...
  
  
• a must-read
  By A1AGNN7LFEJCKR on 2005-10-26
  So far I've read Heinberg's earlier book, The Party's Over, and Kunstler's Long Emergency, as well as Ruppert's Crossing the Rubicon and most of Michael Klare's Blood and Oil. I like Heinberg's books the best because they stick to the point and lay out the scenario very clearly. In my opinion, Kunstler's books spend too many pages dealing with history and with his obsession and area of expertise-- the problems with suburbia; similarly, Klare spends too many pages on history and HIS area of expertise, security and warfare. Roberts' is also full of unnecessary history.
  In The Party's Over, by contrast, Heinberg very clearly lays out the evidence that we have an imminent problem, then methodically shows why each of the proposed alternatives will not save us. I found the section on solutions at the end to be pretty thin, though.
  That's where Powerdown comes in. Here, Heinberg spends just the first fourth or so laying out the case he made in the Party's Over, and most of the book is addressed to solutions. In essence, he sees four approaches--1)attempting to take over the Middle East (which is obviously what the current US administration has in mind); 2)pretending it isn't a problem and technology or markets will save us--which is no solution, and is also the public face of the first, unethical "solution"; working cooperatively to develop alternatives as rapidly as possible while conserving fossil fuels and reducing population--I'd love to see humanity take this course, but at best, with a major change in US leadership, we might hope for a partial implementation of this approach--and finally, the solution for individuals who see the problem and want to do what they can--forming enclaves to enhance personal and community survival odds, as well as to preserve local ecosystems and culture. Some of the reading I've done on this topic attempts to shoot down every particle of hope and then offer, for solutions, simply "pray." Heinberg's book is much more thoughtful and more useful than that.
  
  
• Heinberg Reports, You Decide
  By A1PPQ44N9QUATY on 2006-07-24
  Heinberg writes as friend who has the regrettable task of informing us our way of life is over. He gives a concise, readable account of why change is coming. In short, the age of cheap oil is soon to end and viable substitutes (if they are to appear at all) are decades away. We are now at the point, or we will soon be at the point, where supply cannot keep up with demand. Demand is rising (thanks in part to the industrialization of China and India) and supply is at its peak. This new reality will have disastrous consequences for our economic, political and social institutions. "It literally changes everything."
  
  The magnitude of the impending disaster is a function of population buildup (6.4 billion, well beyond the carrying capacity of the earth), resource depletion, declining per-capita food production, global climate change, and economic and political instability. "Taken together, they constitute the most severe challenge our species has ever faced. They represent not merely a likely culmination of human history; in their ongoing and potential environmental impacts, they also may collectively signal one of the most momentous events in all of geological time."
  
  Alarmist nonsense? The sky is falling? Some say so. The energy well is bottomless, some say. For Heinberg the writing is on the wall and it is past time to respond. He lays out four possible responses: 1) Resource wars, 2) Global self-limitation, 3) Denial, 4) Small-scale sustainable communities. Option one is the destructive path our current political leaders are pursuing. Option two will simply marginalize self-limiters unless there is global cooperation (tragedy of the commons). Option three is a non-starter. "Our real problem is that we are trapped in a perpetual growth machine." We are degrading the long-term carrying capacity of the environment, so more cheap energy (if it could be found) would only delay, and exacerbate the inevitable. Option four is the prudent choice those who have the will to work toward a local community that can preserve our highest human values and ideals.
  
  Heinberg is not the only one sounding the alarm, but his account is compelling, his tone is human and his writing is fluid. Powerdown is an excellent introduction to the topic of peak oil.
  
  
  
• This Ounce of Prevention Is Worth Billions
  By A1FAWFMP6CDKG on 2005-05-10
  Were political will consonant with the use of reason and intelligence, then Richard Heinberg's book could be the blueprint for a new age of Sustainable Living on planet Earth. Unfortunately, it is highly improbable that anyone with true power will implement any of Heinberg's sensible solutions to humanity's energy-and-sustainability crisis, which will probably hit hard in the next decade (by 2015) as the planet's daily oil supply takes a steep downward turn--forever.
  
  Our failure to Powerdown probably will lead to war, famine, and possibly the annihilation of the human race as a whole.
  
  Heinberg's sources seem convincing to me. His arguments seem largely sound and on-target. If humans weren't so incapable of facing facts, even when they're frightening and unpleasant, then we'd probably have hope.
  
  
• Sobering but hopeful
  By A1LN34HCBK1RW2 on 2005-08-02
  I have followed Dr. Heinberg's work for a while now and this book is further validation to his philosophy regarding the activities of humankind as they define our future here on planet Earth. I found this text to be well organized and easy to understand. The most alluring thing about this author is that he suggests solutions and ideas to help us as a civilization get through the potential disasters facing us, rather than merely telling us how much trouble we are in. I must admit that I personally do not have a lot of hope that the worst case scenarios depicted in the book will not come to past. Characteristic of Heinberg's style, he goes through a very detailed set of steps that if engaged in a timely manner would help the world weather the coming storm. He also makes a chillingly accurate assessment that the amount of damage to the environmental systems coupled with the emerging energy crisis is going to quite likely cripple most societies and invite a overwhelming amount of conflict and most likely violence. I recommend everyone that reads this book pay special attention to his "lifeboat" plan, especially if the worst-case scenarios play out.
  Anyone that is in the least bit familiar with the Peak Oil threory will find this book refreshing and informative. People not in the know about the coming energy crisis may find this writing to be significantly shocking. All in all, Dr. Heinberg does not candy coat the truth, but he does present it in less threatening manner.
  
  
• As the Chinese curse goes, "May you live in interesting times,
  By AEER3AMNJRL72 on 2006-03-02
  I was impressed and educated reading Heinberg's book. He trod paths that other writers have refused to tred-particularly his final chapter where he dares to discuss the subject that even "The Movement" refuses to confront-population and the carrying capacity of the planet. As he admits, the subject is taboo because, even though it is the single most important aspect of the coming calamity, the Movement won't deal with it because of the inevitable political fallout from the religious memberbs of the progressive faction of American politics. Where is the value of democracy if subjects can not be discussed for fear that discussion will alienate certain people and therefore force them into sidesteping hugely important issues.
  
  Heinberg deals with many issues that are not quite so confronting in this wonderful book and no, I do not think these topics have all been dealt with in other earlier books by other authors. Of course, if a person chooses to educate themselves particularly in this area of planetary collapse then perhaps much of Heinberg's writing is treading over old material. However, if a general reader has only recently begun reading in this area of planetary collapse then Heinberg's information and interpretations are eye opening.
  
  Perhaps I am poorly read in the field of Peak Oil and its comcomitant inenevitable desatruction of capitalism as an engine of continued indusatrial progress. I have lived through a number of years of last century and nothing that Heinberg says struck a poor note with this collection of information. Everything he wrote is totally in keeping with my previous information. I do not believe that capitalism with its market economy or technology or prayer is going to stop the train that has been set in motion. How we deal with the outcome is the only question and democracy will not provide the answers we need for the same reason that The Movement will not deal with overpopulation. So yes-we are doomed to something far away from the life we are now leading.
  
  Heinberg writes that twenty years ago the Club of Rome said the world has fifty years before the life systems of the planet are damaged beyond repair. I see nothing on the horizone to give me any hope that this prediction won't happen.
  
  
• Heaven Help Us All if Our Leaders Fail to Get the Powerdown Message
  By A3ELOLX6CRIH0M on 2006-05-25
  Will leaders in government and business ever muster the courage to publicly acknowledge that our resource-consuming, polluting way of life is a ticking time bomb of catastrophic proportions, with a fuse that is shorter than most people want to acknowledge? Author Richard Heinberg thankfully lives in reality, unlike most politicians and corporate CEOs. Heinberg's message is refreshing for its candour and courage, despite the dire future that he foresees.
  
  I believe that Heinberg's predictions of global economic collapse, vast famines, and resource wars instigated by the developed world are valid, and likely to come true, given the headstrong arrogance of so many persons currently holding positions of power.
  
  Heinberg is skilled at drawing inferences from insights into what is really taking place here early in the 21st century. He states, for example, "Trying to tell the public truly awful news is considered impolite - unless it is news about something that can be blamed on an opposing political group or some foreign enemy". Heinberg cuts through the lies and deceit that are dished out, almost unconsciously nowadays, by our world "leaders".
  
  Heinberg provides a balanced assessment of the roles played by all groups, including NGOs that are presumably pro-sustainability. He points out that many NGOs shy away from addressing the single biggest challenge facing humanity and the planet - overpopulation; they see it as politically incorrect and|or immoral to consider limiting the ability of individuals to reproduce.
  
  Heinberg and James Howard Kunstler are both featured in the documentary "The End of Suburbia - Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream". Kunstler's book, The Long Emergency", carries the same dire yet realistic message as "PowerDown". I strongly recommend both books, although it's easy to feel depressed and anxious about the future while reading either book.
  
  It is important, however, for each of us, regardless of the extent to which, if at all, s|he will try to `power down' (as Heinberg puts it), to at least live with a clear conception of current reality, as well as of what is possible down the road. I am persuaded, for example, that holding out hope for the "Magic Elixir" of a hydrogen-powered planet is a dangerous game of self-deception. I share Heinberg's belief that our best hope as a species lies in the creation of "small-scale, decentralized, sustainable communities capable of providing a high level of human satisfaction ... while degrading the environment to only a relatively minor extent over time." If, for example, commercial aviation is to disappear, and if the federal government is going to become irrelevant, then we will be well-served by learning to live locally, and developing and supporting bodies of local governance, sooner than later.
  
  Heinberg is not a fatalist. Fatalism, he reminds us, implies the absence of choice. Today, Heinberg sees humankind as having a handful of choices; all are fraught with challenges, yet some are more promising than others. The "Last One Standing" approach of the militarily bolstered developed world will likely leave only losers, longer-term. At the other extreme, the "Powerdown" approach, which embraces self-limitation, cooperation and sharing, has the best chance to ease us into the post-carbon world with the least amount of pain. However, people may be unwilling to give up on their individuality and material wealth.
  
  If one buys into Heinberg's prognosis, then the time is now for anyone who aspires to be a true leader to talk straight about just how dire our situation is likely to become. The sooner we scale back per capita pollution and resource consumption, and the sooner aid from the `developed' nations to the third world takes the form of birth control means, the better the prospects will be for whoever is going to survive the next uncertain generation.
  
  
• Power Down = Limits to Growth 2005
  By A3IZU7ZJKEPHOQ on 2005-08-28
  Books of this genre, while important to provide folks with an overview of the problems that we face typically only have one solution set one based upon doom and gloom.
  
  Underlying this book, Al Gore's Earth in the Balance, and going all the way back to Meadow's "Limits to Growth" is a premise that there are no technical solutions that will allow us to maintain and or even increase our level of civilization. Today the focus is on oil, as Richard accurately states, is crucial to our civilization and without it we are in trouble. However, Richard does not understand that while oil equals energy, energy does not necessarily equal oil.
  
  He is absolutely right that dramatic steps need to be taken today but not the steps that he proposes. The inner solar system has more resources than our 2050 population of 9 billion could ever use, and it can be obtained without environmental damage to the Earth. Energy, in the form of fusion, is on the near horizon and it would already be at hand, had the administration of the last decade had not cut the funding and pulled out of the ITER international effort.
  
  We must invest in our energy future, but not a direction of investment that will leave everyone on the earth poor and without a positive future. I address this in my book "Moonrush" available here on Amazon.com
  
  
• Not as good as The Party's Over...
  By A2988B52PKKNHL on 2006-09-14
  While Heinberg summarizes the lit. on oil depletion and fuel shortages, this book branches into imagined political outcomes--basically, the demise of liberal culture, the individual, and our civilization. (Examples: no oil, little fuel, population decline to 3.8 billion humans, etc.) He offers "rational" alternative end-games and scenarios, but his thinking predicates that human beings and societies are and can be "rational." If you accept that, then, OK, this analysis is for you.
  
  He thinks and believes that policy makers and politicians are not paying attention, however; that is, by not paying attention, they are behaving irrationally. Well, duh. Then what is the importance of "rational" "powerdown" "life-boat" strategies?
  
  The result? I thought this book was watered down and apocalyptic political science, with some power data interspersed. His other book, The Party's Over, was better.
  
  
• Essential and unsettling reading about our options for making it in the Post-oil Age
  By A1E37DNGUC3GCI on 2007-01-03
  Author Richard Heinberg approaches his topic, the consequences of peak oil and the final stop of the cheap oil gravy train, with ecological sensibility and moral clarity. These two characteristics, coupled with a straightforward prose style, make for compelling reading, as well as for serious reflection on the hard choices that we most likely face in the near future.
  
  Heinberg's introductory chapter recaps his earlier book, "The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies." In it, he describes a century's uncritical addiction to cheap oil and outlines the impending crises it has wrought, crises for which we must prepare and to which we will soon respond, voluntarily or otherwise.
  
  After this brief introduction (which basically assumes the truth of the peak oil dilemma, a definite problem for those who are still unconvinced), Heinberg lays out four paths that we may take, both individually and collectively, in response to the threats of dwindling power supplies, climbing global temperatures, etc.
  
  1. Last One Standing - In this scenario, which Heinberg glumly admits is the default scenario given our inability (or worse, unwillingness) to consider the reality of our natural constraints and our predilection for settling things militarily, the powers of the world scramble in their rush to control the world's remaining energy resources. The US misadventure in Iraq, and the current threats to Iran, are part and parcel of this "option," which, as most sane people will admit, doesn't sound like much of an option at all but is, instead, the path of least resistance. As Heinberg notes, this is "a breathtakingly alarming prospect" that may lead to "the general destruction of human civilization and most of the ecological life-support system of the planet" (p. 55). (And for those who would dismiss this speculation as merely the work of a green handwringer, he cites a Pentagon report featured in Fortune magazine that sketches the basic outlines of this kind of "option." If the top brass are seriously thinking about it, then so should we citizens.)
  
  2. Powerdown - This scenario is all about radically reforming the human heart, so as to replace a global culture of greed and self-interest with one of collective interest, sharing, and community. Important components of this powerdown strategy include limiting the size of the human population, increasing the efficiency of our energy consumption, replacing planned obsolescence with enduring quality, and returning global agriculture from its contemporary dependence on fossil fuels to its sustainable, organic roots. Of course, these changes necessitate a change in our underlying economic principles, so that eternal growth is seen as a suicidal imperative and an ecological impossibility, which will in turn necessitate changes in our social and political organization. Because these radical changes will have to be implemented quickly, Heinberg realizes that something like Lenin's dictatorship of the proletariat will have to be formed, presumably of like-minded folks of ecological sensibility and moral clarity. Alas, this option seems to me to be a combination of wishful thinking and highly questionable forms and uses of power; as anyone with a sense of history knows, such vanguards tend not to dissolve of their own accord and folks who aim at radically transforming the human heart end up getting crucified. Nevertheless, the scenario is one we may face out of necessity rather than choice, and so it is essential to come to grips with it.
  
  3. Waiting for the Magic Elixir - This describes the option, if it can be called that, of waiting for the technoscience and free market cavalries to deliver the solution to our problems. Because we've muddled through before, goes the argument, we will surely do so again. This option includes all the hullabaloo about the new hydrogen economy, or abiotic oil, or tar sands, or zero-point energy, etc. None of these options take factors like ERoEI into account, for example, but more problematic, they seek to tackle the problem solely from the supply-side. If we don't work on the demand-side, argues Heinberg, we will merely forestall the crises of overpopulation and overconsumption that come from living beyond our ecological means. Needless to say, Heinberg has little patience for this option, seeing in it a self-centeredness that is morally reprehensible.
  
  4. Building Lifeboats - In this final option, Heinberg echoes Morris Berman's Twilight of American Civilization in calling for a counterculture of "new monks" who will preserve those aspects of human science and arts that are worth preserving. In short, we will need to have small communities in which traditional and primitive technologies and skills are mated to contemporary knowledge of science, politics, literature, etc. Again, this is a tall order for such a short amount of time, but at least this challenge sounds possible and interesting.
  
  In conclusion, Heinberg argues that the world's elites will probably play up option three while tacitly working on option one. Most of the outspoken opposition, the so-called "Other Superpower" of the anti-globalization, etc. activists, will choose a variant of option two, but they are limited because of their resistance to admittedly problematic ideas, specifically those involving population control. The rest of us folks here on the ground, living our modest middle class lives in our modest single-family homes, will suffer the impact of option one (e.g., sending our children to die in oil wars, watching as formerly unmentionables like torture become acceptable again, etc.) while also being able to reduce our own consumption, to reach out and form new small-scale communities, and to increase our practices of cultural preservation. None of these options looks pretty to those of us reared in the age of opportunity, but if what Heinberg and others argue about peak oil is true, these options may be all we have.
  
  
• Straight talk and clear pointers to what we can do
  By A3B17097PEJAU2 on 2005-11-29
  I've read many book on the coming oil crisis and energy conservation. Most are repeating each other about the peaking and then jump to some superficial recommendations. This is the first book I've seen that pierces through the American consumerism to the udnerlining business and political origin. Few books can point out relevent direction for the public.
  
  Actually, this book recommends a combination of power down and lifeboat building strategy instead of just power down. There is also mentioning of the last-one-standing stance adopted by the prevailing business and political elites and the general public's faith on the next magical fix. The explanation of the mechanism why we tend to slide into the more dangerous options is splendid. This is not possible without the straight talk that some people will find offending or at least politically incorrect. But if we still pretend that the problem will get fixed with some mild initiatives and avoiding its root cause, we are also falling into the camp of wishful thinking group. After going through the book, I understand in retrospect why the author included the other options. These are the pitfalls that we should avoid and these chapters enable us to identify the sign of problem as soon as possible.
  
  The pointers to resources for the power down and lifeboat building strategy are also very useful when we have seen the reality and are going to take actions.
  
  
  
• Better than the Long Emergency
  By A2VABD1IUNIGKL on 2006-07-06
  Very concise review of alternative energy options, and why repair, re-use, maintain will become very important as we learn to live with energy resource limitations. Its not as alarmist as the Long Emergency (James Howard Kunstler), but puts the onus on policy makers to make hard choices now, or be faced with some unwinnable strategies,e.g. "Last One Standing" which appears to be the policy of the Bush administration, perhaps unconsciously. I enjoyed it. Very well written, well researched, and easy to understand.
  
  
• addresses impending problems of energy resource depletion
  By A14OJS0VWMOSWO on 2004-10-06
  Powerdown: Options And Actions For A Post-Carbon World by energy resource expert Richard Heinberg (Core Faculty, New College of California) addresses the rapidly impending problems of energy resource depletion and increasing population pressures for an expanding energy resource consumption. After an informative and fact-based overview of the likely impacts of il and natural gas depletion, Heinberg offers four possible options for industrial societies during the new several decades: "Last Main Standing": the path of competition for remaining resources; "Powerdown": the path of cooperation, conservation, and sharing; "Waiting for a Magic Elixir": wishful thinking, false hopes, and denial; "Building Lifeboats": the path of community solidarity and preservation. Exploring predictable responses to each of these diverse options, Powerdown is a timely and urgent call to action before our time runs out and our energy resources run dry.
  
  
  
  
• My eyes will never be the same.
  By A1JQ5SSGW0VGU0 on 2007-04-28
  From the article titled "Document Says Oil Chiefs Met With Cheney Task Force", in the Washington Post, "The White House went to great lengths to keep these meetings secret, and now oil executives may be lying to Congress about their role in the Cheney task force," Lautenberg said.
  
  You might find the answer for why we are in Iraq, if you were to read "Powerdown: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World". This book is not a fiction based peak oil theory written by some fanatic. If the CIA were to have read this book, I think their internal book review would be a shocking confirmation. With the connection in the recent news of Cheney's secret energy meeting with oil execs, the CIA to Cheney, Cheney to the oil industry, the unprecedented preemptive war in Iraq, the facts in this book about how horrible the prospect, limited the options are and awful I feel to contemplate it all, all point to the fact that we, the American people don't want to know the truth, but read it or not, we will know that truth soon as we are forced to deal with it. How bad is the situation? On a scale from 0 to 10, it is off the scale.
  
  Nostalgia for the good ol' days will seem sad and silly, for these days are the last of the good ol' days. you will not have any problem believing it unless you do not finish it or choose to live in denial. All good things must end and concidering the way the world has squandered a non-renewable resource like oil, it is a soon to be obvious and logical eventuality.
  
  How much can you afford to pay for a gallon of gas in today's economy? How much will gas cost in a collapsed economy where your money isn't worth 10 cents on a dollar?
  
  Who could ever have imagined 9/11? Or even what possible reasons there could be for a 9/11 conspiracy? Or presidential election fraud 2 elections in a row? A democratic government that does not have to tell you anything except that, "that information is secret" or "that information would jeopardize the security of" what or who? I can't really say I want to know either.
  
  What I see now when I go about my days are people of all ages enjoying a good life that they do not know is about to come to an end, objects I use like monofilament fishing line, my toothbrush, anything plastic or that comes in plastic or in part is plastic, clothes, shoes, carpet and more all made from oil. Things I do and once enjoyed without a thought, drive to the store, watch a movie, listen to music, to the radio, and the variety of food available to me, may all be unaffordable even if available in my lifetime, what is left of it anyway. Do I want to feel this way? No. Do I want you to? No.
  
  In the sci-fi movie "They Live" an economic crisis brings unemployed Nada (Roddy Piper) to L.A. in search of work. What he finds instead is that the ruling elite of the world are aliens in disguise, their aim being to keep humans in a state of mindless consumerism. His discovery comes when he dons a pair of special sunglasses made by a resistance group and sees for the first time reality unadorned. Billboards, store signs, magazine covers--all bear subliminal messages to OBEY, to CONSUME, to have NO INDEPENDENT THOUGHT. Money itself says THIS IS YOUR GOD. But worst of all, with these glasses you see which of us are really hideous, bug-eyed aliens.
  
  Reading "Powerdown" is like putting on a pair of special sunglasses but you can only wish you could take them off. My eyes will never be the same.
  
  
  
• Comfortably Numb?
  By A1V4F9JXFS5SWB on 2005-04-06
  Time is running out. Heinberg's excellent follow up book to THE PARTY'S OVER is definately worth reading if you are concerned about our nations consumption of fossil fuels and the impending disaterous consequences this will have on America's future when the juice runs out. Do not have any misconceptions about the years ahead: AMERICA WILL RUN OUT OF OIL AND GAS if we don't start implementing drastic changes to our consumption habits. Are we capable of handling the nightmare consequences of seeing EMPTY signs at all our gas stations? Probably not. Out of all the book's I've read on oil policies, "Peak Oil" and the future, POWERDOWN is the best so far at explaining bold and visionary options which need to be put into practice collectively before the party really is over and America the powerful suddenly finds itself powerless.
  
  Who's afraid of the dark?
  
  
  
  
• Everyone on the planet needs to read this...
  By A7W2FSEOO637Y on 2005-04-11
  A sorely needed wake-up call that is probably going to be too late, and which will likely remain unexamined by those who need to read it the most -- our so-called leaders. In the context of the subject, it is no surprise that the author would strongly disagree with the regressive environmental and energy policies of Bush administration. The violent actions of a waning empire, desparate to control energy resources, will merely postpone the inevitable collapse of industrial society, while doing nothing to make our future any more secure.
  
  "Power Down" seems to be conciously written to be more accessible to the average reader than "The Party's Over", it covers a lot of the same ground but is probably easier for most people to absorb than Heinberg's first book. I hope for the world's sake that both are widely read.
  
  
  
• Something slipped.
  By A2SY71RPS71YDO on 2006-02-15
  Heinberg's "New Covenant with Nature" was a very special and tremendously expressive book, not directed at the masses or any political cults. "Powerdown" is a disappointing reversal, actually a complete spiritual compromise, full of politically correct jargon, autocratic dreams, hollow solutions, and dismal outlooks.
  
  Heinberg's intellect is not in question. His honest insights are worth a thousand bucks. But some force got to him in this book and brought him down to a left-weighted version of flimflam. Seeking a broader market for his writing might have been the downfall. One can only speculate.
  
  I will continue reading. My hope is that he rises again to his past standards.
  
  

• The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
• The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies
• The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel
• Peak Oil Survival: Preparation for Life After Gridcrash
• Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines (New Society Publishers)